Posted on 02/09/2014 6:12:37 PM PST by neverdem
The balance in the 2014 race for a majority in the Senate seems to have shifted -- toward the Republicans. Two polls released today showed Louisiana Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu trailing Republican challenger John Cassidy and New Hampshire Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen running even with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.
Here is how Republicans are faring in seven seats that are up in states carried by Mitt Romney. I've shown the Real Clear Politics averages or, when that wasn't available, an average from the two most recent public polls (an asterisk means there wasn't an RCP average available). Following that is the most recent public poll and the polling firm which produced it. And I've added the Gallup 2013 Obama job approval numbers for each state, rounded off to integers.
In each comparison, the best known Republican candidate’s percentage is listed first.
| State | Poll average | Most recent public poll | Polling firm | Obama job approval rating |
| Alaska | 40-47* | 39-50 | Hays | 33 |
| Arkansas | 40-40 | 37-36 | Arkansas Poll | 35 |
| Louisiana | 42-45* | 44-40 | Rasmussen | 40 |
| Montana | 52-35* | 52-35 | PPP | 33 |
| North Carolina | 45-41 | 47-40 | Rasmussen | 43 |
| South Dakota | n/a | n/a | No polling since Sept. | 32 |
| West Virginia | 48-38* | 50-36 | PPP | 25 |
Two Republicans seem to have clear leads in the open seats in Montana and West Virginia. You can probably add the open seat in South Dakota to that list. In Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, Democratic incumbents are well under 50 percent and in some polls are trailing Republicans. It's highly unusual for an incumbent senator to run behind in a poll and a danger sign for an incumbent to poll 50 percent. Only in Alaska does the incumbent Democrat, Mark Begich, have a clear lead; but the leading Republicans, Mead Treadwell and Dan Sullivan, do not have high name identification, and the most recent poll was conducted in August, before the Obamacare rollout. Obviously Democrats are in serious danger of losing six of these seats and not in a strong position in the seventh.
Two months ago, not many analysts were paying much attention to the possibility that Republicans might win Senate seats in states carried by Obama in 2012. Now many are. The following numbers show why.
| State | Poll average | Most recent public poll | Polling firm | Obama job approval rating |
| Colorado | 42-46* | 42-46 | PPP | 42 |
| Iowa | 39-42* | 40-43 | Quinnipiac | 42 |
| Michigan | 39-38 | 37-35 | Rasmussen | 48 |
| New Hampshire | 42-46 | 44-44 | Purple Strategies | 45 |
| Virginia | 29-50 | 37-51 | Rasmussen | 46 |
There are more undecideds in the open-seat races in Iowa and Michigan than in the races involving incumbent Sens. Mark Udall and Shaheen in Colorado and New Hampshire, respectively. Only Sen. Mark Warner in Virginia has a significant lead and beats the 50-percent mark, though not by much. Obama 2013 approval numbers are higher here than in the 2012 Romney states listed above, but are all still below 50 percent.
In many Senate race cycles, almost all the close races fall to one party. Based on these numbers, the best result for Democrats would be to lose 3 seats and the worst case would be to lose 11. So the Senate could be anywhere from 52-48 Democratic to 56-44 Republican. The numbers right now look favorable for Republicans, but they could change — and they don’t take into account Republicans’ demonstrated capacity to nominate unelectable candidates in winnable races.
But then I remember that in the closing days of the 2012 campaign Barone predicted a blowout win for Romney, and....
Angle did plenty to herself in that race and she was one of the best supported and financed candidates running against one of the most unpopular incumbents. Even Rove's groups and the NRSC dumped a lot of cash into that race to defeat Reid, but difficult to overcome all of Angle's missteps.
That doesn't excuse some of the Nevada GOP politicians coming out and supporting Reid, however. If they don't like Angle, just don't do anything to help her if they feel that strongly...just keep quiet and sit it out - but good grief, don't come out and openly back Reid.
Indeed. Usually it’s because a certain group or person (Tea Party Express or Mark Levin for example) that people put way too much stock in starts pushing the candidate.
There were just too many like Barone who predicted Mitt. The trouble was the dem cheat was just too effective especially in Ohio and Floriduh, which was impossible to predict unless they had some insider dem info.
We have to face two realities. First is the dems have perfected the cheat enough to overcome say 5%. Second, the “stay at home, purists” and libertarians who got suckered by dem monied libertarians kept it a less than 5%.
I was not a Mitt supporter by any stretch, but even he would have been night and day better that what we face day in, day out now.
I’m From Louisiana and I say anyone but a Landrieu,remember she got the job illegally the first time.
Shamnesty trumps all. It ain’t over till it’s over. The Gelded OLD Pansies can’t find their way out of a wet paper bag.
Good idea.
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RUNNING ON YOUR RECORD SENATOR UDALL? THAT'S NICE. Vote-crazed Sen. Mark Udall, facing reelection, was caught on tape parroting The Big Lie: "like your plan, keep your plan" b/c some 330,000 Coloradans received cancelation notices lock-stepping Udall promised they wouldn’t.
Udall’s crazed response was to lean on state insurance regulators to change their numbers by changing their vocabulary. Frantic Udall argued plans shouldn’t be counted as canceled if a person was eligible to buy a pricier ACA compliant plan.
The insurance regulator resisted Udall’s psychotic arguments.
Then things got interesting. CompleteColorado.com obtained and reported on internal state emails of insurance official, Jo Donlin, stating the deranged Udall wanted to “trash” the state’s numbers....
Fearing he'd lose his seat, vote-crazed Udall harrassed Donlin, calling her repeatedly, and when she refused to bend, she received a “very hostile” call from Udall’s chief of staff (maybe more like a "threat"?).
Udall’s obsessed interference prompted demands for more information and for an investigation into his twisted conduct.
SAVED BY THE BELL Almost instantly, Colorado’s Department of Regulatory Affairs, which oversees the Division of Insurance, issued a statement claiming a "neutral and objective panel" investigated the matter and determined "Udall’s office did nothing improper and there was no intimidation."
(waiting for hysterical laughter to die down)
NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS Absolving deranged Senator Udall of culpability is the exact same MO used right before NJ Sen Torricell was forced out of office.
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VOTER REFERENCE GUIDE As far back as 2008, at the presidential debate in Nashville, Democrat candidate Obama advanced his signature healthcare plan---ultimately enacted, by an historic straight Democrat party-line vote, into the "Affordable Care Act"
QUOTING 2008 OBAMA: "No. 1, let me just repeat, if you’ve got a health care plan that you like, you can keep it. All I’m going to do is help you to lower the premiums on it. You’ll still have choice of doctor.” Repeated over and over ---- with the promise that every American family would be saving $2500.00 on healthcare costs.
Significantly, Obamba NEVER corrected lock-stepping Democrats, all reading from the same Democrat talking points, all of them repeating the same Democrat promises---over and over again.
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LOCK-STEPPING PARTY LOYALTY NOT SEEN SINCE 1930-40's ERA EUROPE Obama And The Dems marching in lockstep. The persistent Dumbocrat drumbeat ---- in obeisance to Obama ---- kept ringing reassuringly in our ears: "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan."
Other info from Harper Polling:
According to the polls, which were conducted by the right-leaning Harper Polling,
Republicans hold leads in five of seven key U.S. Senate races. The other races
are either tied or show room for growth from GOP candidates.
The automated surveys from Harper show Sens. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), Mark Pryor (D-Ark.)
and Mary Landrieu (D-La.) trailing their Republican opponents. Republicans also
lead open races with Democratic retirements in Montana and Michigan.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/polls-gop-retaking-senate-election-probability-2014-2#ixzz2svNSzwXI
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Election Projections:
The six projected GOP takeovers are:
•Arkansas - Incumbent: Mark Pryor
•Michigan - Open seat (Carl Levin)
•Montana - Open seat (Max Baucus)
•North Carolina - Incumbent: Kay Hagan
•South Dakota - Open seat (Tim Johnson)
•West Virginia - Open seat (Jay Rockefeller)
Three other states that could swing the GOP’s way are:
•Alaska - Incumbent: Mark Begich
•Iowa - Open seat (Tom Harkin)
•Louisiana - Incumbent: Mary Landrieu
2 replies so far, both whiners. I honestly wonder why those types bother to post at all.
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I’ve said the same thing. Why the hell do they even bother coming to Free Republic? Why don’t they just shut down the computer, turn on the TV and watch the View and Ellen Degeneres? If I hear “pulling defeat from the jaws of victory” one more time, I think I will vomit.
Just for fun I did a google search, “defeat from the jaws of victory” for site http://www.freerepublic.com. 284,000 results.
Barone uses the old school method. He does not take into account massive and blatant Communist fraud.
Oh my goodness..... LOL... Well; not surprised.
Heller knows all about my book. He and his staff have never bothered to call back. They are all Reid good-old-boys, don’t rock the boat.
Uh - - - - ?
Are you confusing me with RW?
If you know anyone who is voting for John Cornyn, in the Texas GOP Primary, please remind them that the Primary Election is March 5th.
(Yes, I know the Primary is actually March 4th, but hopefully the idiot lemmings don’t know that.)
Republicans for Reid?.. Besides RINOs, what Republicans would help Reid get re-elected
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