Posted on 02/09/2014 6:12:37 PM PST by neverdem
The balance in the 2014 race for a majority in the Senate seems to have shifted -- toward the Republicans. Two polls released today showed Louisiana Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu trailing Republican challenger John Cassidy and New Hampshire Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen running even with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.
Here is how Republicans are faring in seven seats that are up in states carried by Mitt Romney. I've shown the Real Clear Politics averages or, when that wasn't available, an average from the two most recent public polls (an asterisk means there wasn't an RCP average available). Following that is the most recent public poll and the polling firm which produced it. And I've added the Gallup 2013 Obama job approval numbers for each state, rounded off to integers.
In each comparison, the best known Republican candidate’s percentage is listed first.
| State | Poll average | Most recent public poll | Polling firm | Obama job approval rating |
| Alaska | 40-47* | 39-50 | Hays | 33 |
| Arkansas | 40-40 | 37-36 | Arkansas Poll | 35 |
| Louisiana | 42-45* | 44-40 | Rasmussen | 40 |
| Montana | 52-35* | 52-35 | PPP | 33 |
| North Carolina | 45-41 | 47-40 | Rasmussen | 43 |
| South Dakota | n/a | n/a | No polling since Sept. | 32 |
| West Virginia | 48-38* | 50-36 | PPP | 25 |
Two Republicans seem to have clear leads in the open seats in Montana and West Virginia. You can probably add the open seat in South Dakota to that list. In Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, Democratic incumbents are well under 50 percent and in some polls are trailing Republicans. It's highly unusual for an incumbent senator to run behind in a poll and a danger sign for an incumbent to poll 50 percent. Only in Alaska does the incumbent Democrat, Mark Begich, have a clear lead; but the leading Republicans, Mead Treadwell and Dan Sullivan, do not have high name identification, and the most recent poll was conducted in August, before the Obamacare rollout. Obviously Democrats are in serious danger of losing six of these seats and not in a strong position in the seventh.
Two months ago, not many analysts were paying much attention to the possibility that Republicans might win Senate seats in states carried by Obama in 2012. Now many are. The following numbers show why.
| State | Poll average | Most recent public poll | Polling firm | Obama job approval rating |
| Colorado | 42-46* | 42-46 | PPP | 42 |
| Iowa | 39-42* | 40-43 | Quinnipiac | 42 |
| Michigan | 39-38 | 37-35 | Rasmussen | 48 |
| New Hampshire | 42-46 | 44-44 | Purple Strategies | 45 |
| Virginia | 29-50 | 37-51 | Rasmussen | 46 |
There are more undecideds in the open-seat races in Iowa and Michigan than in the races involving incumbent Sens. Mark Udall and Shaheen in Colorado and New Hampshire, respectively. Only Sen. Mark Warner in Virginia has a significant lead and beats the 50-percent mark, though not by much. Obama 2013 approval numbers are higher here than in the 2012 Romney states listed above, but are all still below 50 percent.
In many Senate race cycles, almost all the close races fall to one party. Based on these numbers, the best result for Democrats would be to lose 3 seats and the worst case would be to lose 11. So the Senate could be anywhere from 52-48 Democratic to 56-44 Republican. The numbers right now look favorable for Republicans, but they could change — and they don’t take into account Republicans’ demonstrated capacity to nominate unelectable candidates in winnable races.
McConnell is losing to the democrat. He has terrible approval in KY among conservatives, and that is what is giving Grimes the edge over him in the polls.
Key here is whether the GOP nominees will be able to stay on message or will the bizarre urge to make offhanded comments pertaining to rape overtake them. I love the TEA Party movement, TP-backed candidates often commit unforced errors that show they’re not ready for prime time.
Authored bill for 24-hour waiting period for abortion
Brown has angered abortion-rights groups with acts like his cosponsorship of the Women's Right to Know Act, which would require a woman to wait 24 hours before having an abortion and to review pictures and information detailing the developmental progress of her fetus.
My problem with this is that abortion is murder - flat out. A human being's life, NOT something called a fetus, is terminated. If anything can be worse then it is that it is terminated by the choice of the one person God and nature have chosen to protect it throughout it's life - the mother.
Women abdicating what should be extremely honored positions in our society has led to a greatly diminished culture. I blame Hugh Hefner for one - turning women into no-consequences sex objects - although he clearly was only a symptom and hardly the only cause.
I guess this is my soapbox - abortion. It gets me worked up.
They need to be sent to some kind of week long total immersion boot camp where some kind of Patton type (Dana Loesch maybe?) hammers on them for 120 hours straight.
I'm guessing, though, that he was looking at actual numbers rather than accounting for widespread voter fraud.
Republicans will do that again at their peril.
Good points.
Sometimes I’m surprised that many Freepers are willing to accept unvetted candidates or unattractive candidates (not in physical sense, but in demeanor, etc) as long as the candidates are spewing conservative messages.
Is this the same Michael Barone that predicted Romney would win in 2012?
If we fight smart, instead of vindictive and angry, we can pull this off.
They looked great in 2012 too and the end result was disaster. I love how we brag and brag about how great we are until we see the results.
Oh Lord. Just noticed Scott Brown is running again in another state. Can’t we get rid of him? Somebody better must be living in New Hampshire and not some carpetbagger. If he were conservative that would be one thing, but I think his running in NH is a joke.
0bama’s approval levels spiked up just in time for the Nov 2012 elections and his army of LIVs voted down ticket. 0bama’s approval rating will probably be the most important determinant, unless the Dems voter fraud schemes can steal away 5% or more.
I wrote the only biography of Harry Reid and know the 2010 Nevada race well. i suggest you read up on Republicans For Reid and what the establishment repubs did to Angle before you blather on.
thank you
Who believes a poll from Dem party push pollsters PPP!These are the frauds who ran a series of phony polls showing Ken C getting crushed in VA and he lost by only 2 pts because PPP help create a false reality which even the conservative media-pushed by showing these phont polls resukts which then
intentionally deflated the Gop base !
Do you have any idea how crooked Clark county NV is ?
its run by Union goons from Casinos and the mob.
They bussed in illegals and employees from the casinos to the polls !
Reid is a casino gangster bagman !
His is an actual character in the movie Casino !
He is the crooked County Casino official in the movie.
Barrone is pro amnesty, so he doesn’t factor that into his analyses.
When Boehner gets amnesty, which he and Goodlatte are now planning to do after the primaries, all those poll numbers will go down the tubes.
MOst Alaskans I talk to say Begich has always been a fool. He
started photo radar which ran him outta politics in late 90’s. He votes with Obama all the time. But most of all, he voted for Obama Care and they ain’t gonna forgive that one. Begich is toast.
Thanks for writing you book on Reid.
When I read your book I will be looking for why the other Democrat Senators never challenge Reid.
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