Distribution 73.07% urban, 26.93% rural
Population (2000) 585,305[1]
Median income $43,176[1]
Ethnicity 91.6% White, 3.2% Black, 1.9% Asian,
3.2% Hispanic, 0.4% Native American
Posted on 10/25/2013 8:07:59 AM PDT by US Navy Vet
...RINO US Congressman Tom Lathan(3rd District Iowa)he voted to keep the ObamaCare Congressional Exemptions and "Re-Open" the "Government"
“Tom Latham is Boner’s BUTT BUDDY!”
Well, there’s your campaign right there. Start printing signs.
You need much more than 375 signatures. You need lots of money. While there are plenty of exceptions, and I’ve seen several of them, the rule is that the candidate with the most money wins. Why? Money equal exposure, and exposure equals name ID.
Incumbents have three very large advantages, and all would need to be overcome or managed.
1. Name ID. All things being equal, the candidate with the most name ID wins. In order to take on an incumbent that holds a high residual name ID, you must first get enough exposure to match his name ID within a district. ONLY after you are at name ID parity can you really distinguish yourself on the issues.
Before you go any further, you MUST understand the import of this: if you don’t have name ID parity, then your issues don’t matter because you cannot get them out to enough of the voters to overcome the name ID advantage that the incumbent already has on you.
2. Money. Donors want to see results, and few people want to throw money at a losing cause. The incumbent has something you do not have: a history of winning elections. He will get donations because he’s an elected official. How will you get donations? I will tell you plainly that unless and/or until you have $50K in your campaign account, no serious “investor” will give you a dime. It’s politics 101. Before somebody invests in an unknown, they at least have to see that you know how to raise money.
3. Constituent services. Half a congresscritter’s job is constituent services and most do an outstanding job of it. This is where issues don’t matter. “My congressman is a great guy,” is a true statement for 30% of your district, or more. Why? Because his office helped me get through the red tape at the VA, or helped grandma get her SS check fixed. Or, on a larger scale, he brought a senior center to the district, or got a new highway built, or etc. etc. There’s a large number of primary voters that have directly benefited from his term in office. Indeed, that’s the whole reason some voters ARE primary voters in your race: to give back to the great guy that did wonderful things for that person, personally.
There’s a reason why 90+ percent of incumbents get re-elected. I’m not trying to discourage you from running, but you need a realistic idea of what you’re facing.
I’ll post another post with more.
Distribution 73.07% urban, 26.93% rural
Population (2000) 585,305[1]
Median income $43,176[1]
Ethnicity 91.6% White, 3.2% Black, 1.9% Asian,
3.2% Hispanic, 0.4% Native American
GO!!!
Electability *is* an issue.
There’s a university in, I believe WI, that studies elections and has since the Great Depression.
Voters come in two types, informed and uninformed.
The uninformed vote for the following reasons, in order from highest to lowest:
1. Name ID - they recognize the candidate’s name.
2. Name Association - Something about the name is familiar to them (e.g. My third grade teacher’s name was Smith, I liked her, I’ll vote for Smith, or, I’m Italian, that’s an Italian name, vote.)
3. For or against all Democrats/Republicans; party label.
4. For or against all incumbents.
5. Who the hell knows.
IF THE VOTER knows ANYTHING about the candidate, even 1 issue the candidate supports/opposes, then they are an informed voter.
The breakdown is very consistent: 15% of voters are informed voters.
Do you see why you must have name ID parity before any of your issues matter? If the incumbent has a 70/30 name ID advantage over you, he’ll get to 50% without discussing a single issue. 60/40 is still an inside straight for the incumbent.
If you understand this, it means that any successful race has to really be two races: a race for the LIV votes and one for the informed votes.
The informed votes are important because they are the influentials. Everybody here probably qualifies. As elections approach, people ask you how to vote. They do so because they know that you have a passion for politics and they perceive that translates to you having a more informed opinion. The 15% can have a very large influence on the electorate.
The other race is strictly name ID. THIS is why politicians send our mailers with pretty pictures of their families with almost no usable position information (except that they are “conservative” in a republican primary, because every republican is conservative at election time).
Your campaign on one side is strictly getting your name out there.
On the other side, you have to go to the Republican Party and other campaign type events, meet local elected officials etc. You have to go after the insiders on the positions.
I have a friend who met Tom DeLay. They talked about how he started in politics. He said he walked his district TWICE, making sure to speak to every single person, before the election. That’s the low-budget way to get started if you don’t have the dollars.
I just hope the final outcome is better than his. ;-)
Good Luck!
Well.., the term, “Boner’s BUTT BUDDY” is, right off the bat, problematic. You’ve insulted the speaker of the house with a “homo(phobic)” slur. Classy.
While I wish we had a more conservative speaker the house is still our one hold on the reins of DC. Thank heaven there are still some keeping conservative views from being overrun.
My wife’s family is from the 4th district, by the way, and I know that approach would be off putting to them. The east side of IA is the bigger problem.
I'd say it then depends on your district. Is it conservative and fed up enough? Do you have to worry about RINO manipulations that close the process? Can you get press covererage, supporters at local meetings, radio interviews, etc.
I hope it works out. Keep us up on your progress.
A couple things ;
Latham moved into his current district for the 2012 election, so you might want to play up the “carpetbagger” angle.
I would contact Steve King and Fred Grandy for guidance about the district.
A few practical pieces of advice.
~~1st rule of politics: “Never endorse in a primary. You can’t make friends, only enemies.” None of the elected officials in or outside your district will endorse you. They might endorse your incumbent opponent out of loyalty or because they had a marker to pay off, but they won’t endorse you. They have little to gain and much to lose by doing so. It’s an ironclad rule of politics. Don’t let it bother you.
A corollary to this is that organizations that DO endorse are normally “incumbent friendly”. They will only consider you after they’ve first considered and rejected the incumbent. The endorsements you want to seek are those from groups that hold positions counter to the incumbent. For example, if he normally runs around spouting how he’s not beholden to social interest groups, then court those groups.
Otherwise, the incumbent will get any endorsement where he’s either aligned or where they fear to cross him.
~~You need an entourage. A candidate that enters a room by himself is a loner with no chance to win. You should have at least 2 people with you at every event. Preferably, they should be in their early 20s with a close haircut and wearing a tie and jacket. This is the preferred image of campaign minions because they’re typically interns trying to play the part.
It should be the job of ONE of these people to be at the candidate’s elbow, jotting down any useful information, including names of the people being met. When a candidate meets 100 people, only those with the best memories can get all the names and added info down. That’s why you have help. Also, your “wing man” has the job of disentangling the candidate so that he can meet the maximum amount of people.
~~ Don’t play the sign game. It’s a waste of time. Buy enough signs to put them up in common locations and where people ask for a sign, but don’t waste your time worrying about signs. Signs don’t win elections, they can only lose them. IF you have enough signs out there that your opponent isn’t the only one with them out, you’re fine. Really, people don’t vote based on signs; they ignore them. You only have to ensure that they’re ignoring yours as well as his. WHATEVER you do, never touch an opponent’s signs. Get filmed doing that, your campaign is over. Not worth it.
~Here’s your stump speech; 1. opening, maybe something lighthearted (joke) if you can manage it, 2. Why you should vote for me. 3. here are 3 important issues and how we differ on them, 4. Why you should vote for me, 5. I’d appreciate your vote.
Pick 5 issues. Memorize 2-5 sentences on each (you’ll usually have 3-7 minutes to speak, 3 minutes means 2 sentences on each, 7 minutes mean 5 sentences, etc.) OK. Now pick the top three issues and fit them in, and rotate them between events depending on what’s important for that crowd. This way, you don’t give the same exact speech every time, but every part of your speech is memorized.
Now, get that on paper and start practicing it NOW. Get it down. Video yourself giving that speech. Watch your hand movements and facial expressions.
This is triply more important if you don’t already have a job/history of public speaking.
That’s all I got for now.
One more thought. You don’t need 375 signatures. You need 800-1000 signatures. Turn in 500 signatures, and your opponent will work night and day to disqualify 126 of them.
It’s far easier to remove an opponent from the start than it is to actually run a primary.
If your district allows you to buy onto the ballot (fee vs. petition), pay the fee. George Washington never gets rejected by the filing office. In addition, you want to spend every second getting your message out, and spending time explaining the petition shouldn’t be part of your message.
I helped gather signatures for a local recall election and city officials disqualified hundreds of valid signatures. They disqualified whole sheets of petitions because an initial wasn’t in the right place. Don’t assume because a signature is valid, it can’t be discounted. You’ll need enough signatures to make the effort to disqualify not worth the time or energy of your opponent. In other words, you’ll need more than twice the minimum number.
Good luck and Godspeed
Some good advice on here.
Best advice is get your name out there.
Also, really research the incumbents background...you have good knowledge of it already...and his background is probably worse than what you already know.
Do it! If your feed up with your reps performance ... then step up and go for it.
ALL GOP/Dems etc... should be primaried. No one should run unapposed ever. What is this Soviet Russia? Even Ted Cruz should have to face someone in the primary! let the questions fly and let the people sort it out in the election! Its the American way.
Run! Good people need to stand up and face the storm of the enemy. Its not easy—and you will be trashed. This is a war to save the Republic—and some have fallen, more will fall. Just ask Breitbarts Family if its worth it? Ask the familes of the guys who faced hundreds in Benghazi? Ask people broken by the lies of the Progressives and their IRS? We on the right (yes, and true patriots on the left as well)must oppose the excesses of tyranny imposed upon the nation by a select few who think they have the right answers.
Yep, I have seen a few FReepers saying they are running in primaries
Do the NEXT RIGHT THING and leave the Results to God!
Same thing I told the late FReeper Congressman Billybob, unless you have $500k to $1 mil laying about (and that just for the primary, you’ll need twice that for the general), you won’t be able to mount a credible challenge.
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