Vanity: It's Time To Let Go Of "They Stole It"

11-8-2012 | Self

[M. Dodge Thomas]

Reading the last two days discussion of what happened Tuesday, IMO there is one line of argument that needs to be abandoned because it's both incorrect and counterproductive:

"They stole it".

The problem with the "vote fraud" theory is that that convincing evidence that it's not correct; for example the actual results were very close to the aggregate polling predictions in the last weeks before the election, see for example:

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/07/after-the-storm/

For that to happen you would not only have to rig not only the election but also both the national and state level polling in such a way that the polls and final results would line up.

And the only way to do that massive conspiracy between polling organizations in fifty different states, which was somehow conducted without any evidence of it coming to light... and which operated almost perfectly each of the last three election cycles.

And the problem with believing that this sort of massive and perfectly conducted conspiracy is the problem, is that if prevents you from looking at the actual problem.

Which is that current Republican party can't sell the current conservative program as presented in the party platform and by the candidates to a majority of voters in the states with the EV total needed to win a presidential election - not even near the bottom of a deep recession when you opponent has may obvious flaws.

A national political party or movement in such a position may or may not be able and/or willing to do what's needed to change such a result.

But if you admit you have a problem, you have the potential to change something that might change your results.

But as long as your explanation for your poor results is "they stole it" - in the face of very convincing evidence from the aggregate polling that this did not happen - all you can do is stand around hoping the other guy screws up worst than you do, or that circumstances change to your advantage for reasons beyond their control, or both.

Which is hope, not a program.

[M. Dodge Thomas]

Thanks,

A quick look tells us what happened: poll selection.

Just off the top of my head, RPC was excluding:

- Ipsos/Reuters
- JZ Analytics/Newsmax
- Angus-Reid
- YouGov
- Mellman

and likely a host of others which were included by PEC.

I can’t find a link to their poll selection methodology, so I don’t know their selection criteria, but whatever it was, it was the source of much if not all of their error.

[darth]

Yes, but when I have worked at the polls I have seen evidence of fraud IN EVERY ELECTION!

Have you read my extensive posts?

How can it be that I went to the homes of 200 voters, knocked on the door, and found out that 50% did not exist? How can a number of precincts average 99% turnout?

Note that I staked out a dim precinct once to see how many voters entered in a four hour period. ZERO voters entered the building; yet that precinct showed 100% turnout when the votes were counted.

This is reality!

Until the Republican Party gets serious about this problem and comes up with a way to fight it, they will LOSE elections.

You don’t think the dims would commit massive fraud and multiple felonies? The party with the ties to organized crime and the drug cartels? Crooked unions? Crony capitalists?

See the proof:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2621405/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2625281/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2615479/posts

[sauropod]

I wondered about that.