CNN National Poll: Dead heat between Obama and Romney (R 49%, 0 49% .. + 11% Dem!)

CNN ^

[Arthurio]

Washington (CNN) – It's all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.

And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.

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Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned say they support the president, with an equal amount saying they back the former Massachusetts governor.

[dontreadthis]

ah, channeling the great one

[BlueStateRightist]

Found the internals: “Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”

[conservativepoet]

Media is trying to control the narrative and this year polling has really been nuts with these unrealistic Dem samples.

Dems/media are trying to conceal Romney’s momentum. The Romney rallies contrasted with Obama rallies make it clear who has captured the nation’s attention. But that is something the media desperately tries to hide from the public.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

Historically speaking, there is a +4 D registered advantage. that being said, it is registered and not Likely voters. Also, the best guestimates say that there should be a +1 - +3 R this cycle. Which is still means little, other than those margins in swing states and there will be a rout this time, like Romney/Ryan 300+ EV rout.

I, personally ( just a numbers junkie) don't see 300EV but i do see a Romney/Ryan win.

[God luvs America]

good to hear...

[grumpygresh]

They added France as the 51st state.

[rwfromkansas]

I would note this is almost exactly opposite from 2008.

That year, McCain you could tell was pretty much giving up, going on Saturday Night Live that Saturday etc.

I like many others on here was taken in with nonsense like “have a chance in PA” without any real evidence. Meanwhile, Obama campaigned in Indiana for crying out loud.

But, this year.....there is evidence we could possibly win PA and other states....from multiple polls (and not just GOP firms, which should always be suspect).

Though cautious, I am excited.

[USNBandit]

Page 29 of the survey report. D/R/I of 41%/30%/29%. If the election results were anything close to that then we have bigger problems than this election.

[HiTech RedNeck]

that does sound rather cynical though.

bronco bama is about to get rode out of town by cowboy mitt, in my humble opinion. however the rats WILL pull out all the stops before they concede.

[tsowellfan]

I agree with you there.

But also, I think it was Rush or somebody else that mentioned something about the oversampling and its based somehow on voter turnout in the last election (2008) and that’s why they do it. It does not make sense especially in 2012 because there’s no way enthusiasm among the democrats it +anything let alone +11%.

Bottom line is, as you said, the Media is trying to control the narrative and this year polling has really been nuts with these unrealistic Dem samples.

[maggief]

A hashtag or link would be helpful.

[HiTech RedNeck]

I’ve been hearing that 10 to 15% of Barack’s former satisfied customers are no longer so. And that Mitt has gotten a lot greater enthusiasm out of GOP voters than that dishrag John McCain did. How anyone could expect a squeaker for Barack under such circumstances is... mysterious.

[trappedincanuckistan]

I do agree it’s very cynical. I think it may be true in some cases (where D are ridiculously oversampled), but in most cases I think the models are vbased on 2008 turnout.

[TomT in NJ]

Using the poll’s cross-tab splits (99% of R’s for Romney, 93% of D’s for O and 59/37 of Ind’s for Romney) applied against the Gallup demographics of 49%R/46%D/5%I, I get 53.8% Romney, 45.1% O and 1.1% other. Landslide numbers!!!

[JerseyRepub]

ABSOLUTELY ridiculous partisan splits.

Mitt Romney leads by 22-points with Independent voters and the survey sampled 11 percentage points more Democrats than Republicans (Dem 41, Rep 30, Ind 29).

The modern record for partisan differential was 7 percentage points more Democrats in 2008.

Obama gets 40% of the White vote despite massive over-sampling of Democrats.

[goldstategop]

If Obama really enjoyed that kind of lopsided partisan advantage - he’d be up 7 to 8 points right now cruising to a second term.

There no way on earth it should be tied with the equivalent of home field artillery. That’s how ridiculous these internals are. No reputable pollster would say Democrats have more than a 3+ to 4+ D advantage in the current electorate and even that is debatable.

In 2008, according to Gallup Obama enjoyed a 7+D advantage. Its unlikely he can better that as CNN wants us to believe. And if he could, he would have put away the race by now.

[rwfromkansas]

Despite being an addict of polls, I wish they would ban them 30 days before an election. They are too influential and drive coverage of the race too much instead of talking about policy.

[latina4dubya]

That is why I never watch the MSM.

i stopped watching all MSM including FOX News four years ago after Obama won the presidency... i am at my parents, and the television was on after a football game... i happened to hear it from the kitchen, so i went to see what they had to say... of course i don't expect CBS to be impartial... but it is annoying...

[SoftwareEngineer]

Maggie,

there are many good hashtags, but go with this guy first

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher

Cheers!