Romney, Obama could split popular and electoral college vote, polls suggest

Washington Post ^

[Arthurio]

Most polls at this moment suggest GOP nominee Mitt Romney is in the lead nationally, but surveys in the nine or so swing states are registering a narrow advantage for President Obama.

So here’s a prospect worth contemplating: What if Romney carries the popular vote, but Obama regains the presidency by winning 270 votes or more in the electoral college?

“I think it’s a 50/50 possibility — or more,” said Mark McKinnon, who was a political strategist for former president George W. Bush.

“If the election were held tomorrow, it wouldn’t just be a possibility, it would be actual,” added William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who also served as a policy adviser to former president Bill Clinton.

[RagingBull]

Gore lost in 2000 with a .5% popular vote advantage
Cleveland lost in 1888 with a .8% popular vote advantage
But Tilden lost in 1876 with a 3.1% popular vote advantage

So it's certainly precedented and possible to lose the EC with a 2-3% popular vote advantage but if Gallup has R/R up 5% (which means 6 or 7% after undecideds decide) it's hard to picture it ending split. Those votes have to come from somewhere, if not Ohio.

[Iowegian]

How many different posts have you made today about this idiotic liberal fantasy?

[Alberta's Child]

That 1876 election was an odd one. Hayes won by a single electoral vote in an election where 20 EVs were disputed after Election Day and ended up being formally awarded to Hayes after a court battle.

[only1percent]

Winning California with only 53% of the vote is one of the those things that, in isolation, would tend to produce the EV victory for Obama in the face of PV defeat -- a million "wasted" votes vs. 2008.

However, I'd think you'd have correlation for Colorado, Nevada and perhaps New Mexico as that kind of titanic shift would imply a big change in the allegiance of educated whites and the enthusiasm of Latinos.

Wouldn't mean that much for the Midwest or Pennsylvania, where it's blue collar whites who are up for grabs and the African Americans whose enthusiasm is vital.

[Arthurio]

The issue is that only a small part of the country was subjected to the negative anti Romney barrage over the summer. If he loses there, but does much better than expected in states like CA, PA, CT, etc. .(but still falls short), that’s how you’d end up with a split.

Historically speaking, the odds of a split are low.

[libertylover]

Every modern president to be re-elected — Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush — has gotten a bigger share of the vote in their second bid for office than their first...

I wonder why they didn't use Clinton's first name here? BTW, William Jefferson Clinton NEVER got 50% of the vote.

[libertylover]

BTW, William Jefferson Clinton NEVER got 50% of the vote.

I meant in his two presidential elections.

[montanajoe]

I've been thinking lately that Romney will win the popular vote and O will win the electoral college...resulting in GOP heads exploding and a successful move to repeal the electoral college sponsored by the GOP and aided by the Dims..

[Nuc 1.1]

Utter nonsense.

[cableguymn]

If Romney wins the popular vote. He gets CA’s electors. With those he wins the EC vote as well I’d bet.

This will send Zero and co running to the courts to get CA’s system over turned.

But it won’t matter. Romney will carry both the popular and ec votes.

[fortheDeclaration]

Clinging to their delusions.

[jmaroneps37]

I agree about a split, but it will be about 57/42/1 and the EC votes will be Romney 300+.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Just scare talk. Not gonna happen. I predict 1 hour after the polls close Romney will be declared the winner. We are having the sister and brother in law over for Costco pizza and some two buck chuck to watch Chris Matthews commit suicide on MSNBC. LOL!!!!

[Clemenza]

College educated whites, and especially college educated white men, vote Republican. This is especially true outside of the coastal hives.

Look across the river in New Jersey, where college educated whites dominate (Hunterdon, Monmouth, Morris) Romney won. He lost the ethnic Asian and Jewish suburbs in Bergen and Middlesex, along with the blue collar white suburbs near Philadelphia (so much for blue collar white Catholics being "natural conservatives").

College educated single women and Asians are a problem, however, although the latter are overwhelmingly concentrated in Cali, Hawaii, NY, NJ, etc. Yuppie/hipster whites may be a common site in New Brooklyn and Portland, but are a tiny minority of the white electorate as a whole. The Democratic share of the white vote is shrinking, not growing. We needto see how we can get more whites in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and PA to vote GOP.