Posted on 10/22/2012 10:03:33 AM PDT by tatown
Romney-51/Obama-45
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
While I disagree with that to some degree....would rather weight.....it has some logic to it that affiliation is a changing variable and not necessarily something you can rely on.
There may be a lot of Dems voting Obama or something, who knows.
Next week-7 to 9 days from today is key. If this holds and its 51-52 then, its just about done.
Romney needs to run like he is 20 points down, all the way to election night.
Year | Nominees | Final Poll | Election Results | Deviation |
2008 | Barack Obama | 55 | 52.6 | -2 |
John McCain | 44 | 46.0 | +2 | |
2004 | George W. Bush | 49 | 50.7 | -2 |
John F. Kerry | 49 | 48.3 | +1 | |
2000 | George W. Bush | 48 | 47.9 | 0 |
Albert Gore, Jr. | 46 | 48.4 | -2 | |
Ralph Nader | 4 | 2.7 | +1 | |
1996 | William J. Clinton | 52 | 49.2 | +3 |
Robert Dole | 41 | 40.7 | 0 | |
H. Ross Perot | 7 | 8.4 | -1 | |
1992 | William J. Clinton | 49 | 43.0 | +6 |
George Bush | 37 | 37.4 | 0 | |
H. Ross Perot | 14 | 18.9 | -5 | |
1988 | George Bush | 56 | 53.4 | +3 |
Michael Dukakis | 44 | 45.6 | -2 | |
1984 | Ronald Reagan | 59 | 58.8 | 0 |
Walter F. Mondale | 41 | 40.6 | 0 | |
1980 | Ronald Reagan | 47 | 50.7 | -4 |
Jimmy Carter | 44 | 41.0 | +3 | |
John Anderson | 8 | 6.6 | +1 | |
1976 | Jimmy Carter | 48 | 50.1 | -2 |
Gerald Ford | 49 | 48.0 | +1 | |
1972 | Richard Nixon | 62 | 60.7 | +1 |
George McGovern | 38 | 37.5 | 0 | |
1968 | Richard Nixon | 43 | 43.4 | 0 |
Hubert H. Humphrey | 42 | 42.7 | -1 | |
George Wallace | 15 | 13.5 | +1 | |
1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 64 | 61.1 | +3 |
Barry Goldwater | 36 | 38.5 | -3 | |
1960 | John F. Kennedy | 51 | 49.7 | +1 |
Richard Nixon | 49 | 49.5 | -1 | |
1956 | Dwight Eisenhower | 59.5 | 57.4 | +2 |
Adlai Stevenson | 40.5 | 42.0 | -2 | |
1952 | Dwight Eisenhower | 51 | 55.1 | -4 |
Adlai Stevenson | 49 | 44.4 | +5 | |
1948 | Harry S. Truman | 44.5 | 49.5 | -5 |
Thomas E. Dewey | 49.5 | 45.1 | -4 | |
Strom Thurmond | 4 | 2.4 | +2 | |
1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 51.5 | 53.4 | -2 |
Thomas E. Dewey | 48.5 | 45.9 | +3 | |
1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 52 | 54.7 | -3 |
Wendell L. Willkie | 48 | 44.8 | +3 | |
1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 55.7 | 60.8 | -5 |
Alfred M. Landon | 44.3 | 36.5 | +8 |
Of course, they would have got completely different, economy-driven responses, if they’d just asked the women what is most important in the race.
But once they qualify it as a query on ‘issues for women’, the respondents somewhat naturally look to prioritize among those ‘women’s issues’. Made up news intended to help Obama. I guess Axelrod must be pressing on Gallup pretty hard.
I am not sure if Romney would lose even if he said tonight a true gaffe like calling Britain an enemy or something.
I do worry about an Allred October surprise but not any Iran deal. That won’t hurt, though Allred could if the campaign is not prepared to strike back immediately.
I hope they are aware of the rumors out there so they can immediately counter the claims with rebuttal witnesses as soon as it comes out.
We now know that only 9% of all calls result in interviews.
Assembling a random sample of the entire universe out of a sample that represents only one-in-eleven is virtually impossible.
Most of the polls weight for the standard demographics -- age, race, gender, income, education, etc. But they do not weight for party identification, simply accepting whatever the result is.
Given the weighting by race, the continual over-sampling of Democrats is obviously an artifact of white Democrats being more likely to answer the phone and respond to a pollster than are white Republicans.
If you will note, Gallup was low by 2% in 2004 and 2008 for the GOP candidate. They pretty much nailed the GOP numbers in 1996 and 2000. If anything, Gallup tends to report the DEM numbers a bit too high.
“Two weeks from Election Day, the GOP nominee also continues to maintain a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 80 percent who back Romney. Among this group, ROMNEY LEADS Obama BY 7 POINTS, 52 PERCENT TO 45 PERCENT.”
I am wondering who is it that is getting polled? I never answer my phone unless I recognize the caller ID. Otherwise, it goes to voice mail, and I call back if it is someone I want to speak with.
That picture is perfect. You have Romney laughing. Obama about to cry. And Chris Matthews (with his overhanging gut) pissed off.
That will be the exact emotions on election night.
Rasmussen projected the 04 presidential results within one percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both George W. Bush and John Kerry.
Rasmussen’s final polls in 08 had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama’s final margin of 53%-46%.
Romney has got to find a way to work that one in tonight. Amazingly, very few Americans are aware of Obama telling the Prime Minister of Russia, when he thought he was off-mike, that he will have "more flexibility" in meeting Russia's demands for U.S. disarmament after the election.
This comment borders on treason and it needs to get better exposed. Not that it will change the minds of those that already fully support him but it should be able to swing a lot of Independents and "Reagan Democrat" types.
The Chicago machine will not go away easily. There will be unprecedented levels of vote fraud. We will need every single voter at the polls, because it will come down to how many people show up.
Exactly my point.
A Republican voter is more likely to take this tack than a Democrat voter.
A week ago Friday night, without looking at the Caller ID, I took a pollster's call -- and ended up in the ABC/Washington Post poll announced last Monday (Obama 49, Romney 46). But I've probably failed to pick-up on a half dozen calls by pollsters in the past few months.
RedMDer captured it!
If O/Ax want to swing the election in their favor they’re gonna need Gloria Allred to bring forward a number of women who claim to be Mitt’s other wives, seeing that polygamy in the US is outlawed.
Otherwise turn out the lights, the party is over...
Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
Year | Candidates | Final Gallup Survey | Election Result | Gallup Deviation |
% | % | % | ||
2008 | Obama | 55.0 | 53.0 | +2.0 |
McCain | 44.0 | 46.0 | -2.0 | |
2004 | Bush | 49.0 | 50.7 | -1.7 |
Kerry | 49.0 | 48.3 | +0.7 | |
2000 | Bush | 48.0 | 47.9 | 0.1 |
Gore | 46.0 | 48.4 | -2.4 | |
Nader | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | |
1996 | Clinton | 52.0 | 49.2 | +2.8 |
Dole | 41.0 | 40.7 | 0.3 | |
Perot | 7.0 | 8.4 | -1.4 | |
1992 | Clinton | 49.0 | 43.3 | +5.7 |
Bush | 37.0 | 37.7 | -0.7 | |
Perot | 14.0 | 19.0 | -5.0 | |
1988 | Bush | 56.0 | 53.0 | +3.0 |
Dukakis | 44.0 | 46.1 | -2.1 | |
1984 | Reagan | 59.0 | 59.2 | -0.2 |
Mondale | 41.0 | 40.8 | +0.2 | |
1980 | Reagan | 47.0 | 50.8 | -3.8 |
Carter | 44.0 | 41.0 | +3.0 | |
Anderson | 8.0 | 6.6 | +1.4 | |
Other | 1.0 | 1.6 | -0.6 | |
1976 | Carter | 48.0 | 50.1 | -2.1 |
Ford | 49.0 | 48.1 | +0.9 | |
McCarthy | 2.0 | 0.9 | +1.1 | |
Other | 1.0 | 0.9 | +0.1 | |
1972 | Nixon | 62.0 | 61.8 | +0.2 |
McGovern | 38.0 | 38.2 | -0.2 | |
1968 | Nixon | 43.0 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
Humphrey | 42.0 | 42.9 | -0.9 | |
Wallace | 15.0 | 13.6 | +1.4 | |
1964 | Johnson | 64.0 | 61.3 | +2.7 |
Goldwater | 36.0 | 38.7 | -2.7 | |
1960 | Kennedy | 50.5 | 50.1 | +0.4 |
Nixon | 49.5 | 49.9 | -0.4 | |
1956 | Eisenhower | 59.5 | 57.8 | +1.7 |
Stevenson | 40.5 | 42.2 | -1.7 | |
1952 | Eisenhower | 51.0 | 55.4 | -4.4 |
Stevenson | 49.0 | 44.6 | +4.4 | |
1948 | Truman | 44.5 | 49.5 | -5.0 |
Dewey | 49.5 | 45.1 | +4.4 | |
Wallace | 4.0 | 2.4 | +1.6 | |
Thurmond | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | |
1944 | Roosevelt | 51.5 | 53.8 | -2.3 |
Dewey | 48.5 | 46.2 | +2.3 | |
1940 | Roosevelt | 52.0 | 55.0 | -3.0 |
Willkie | 48.0 | 45.0 | +3.0 | |
1936 | Roosevelt | 55.7 | 62.5 | -6.8 |
Landon | 44.3 | 37.5 | +6.8 |
The point to take away from that is that they haven’t been off by 6 points in a two way race. There were large margins in 1948 and 1992 but those were both three way races. There is no national third party to throw off the polling the way Perot did in 1992.
Still waiting to see dramatic shift to 2-3 points after last debate to show “sudden surge” to Obama,since they aren’t showing any internals
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