Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Gallup Tracking Poll: R51/O45
Gallup ^ | 10/22 | Gallup

Posted on 10/22/2012 10:03:33 AM PDT by tatown

Romney-51/Obama-45

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; poll
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-66 next last
To: SeekAndFind

While I disagree with that to some degree....would rather weight.....it has some logic to it that affiliation is a changing variable and not necessarily something you can rely on.

There may be a lot of Dems voting Obama or something, who knows.


41 posted on 10/22/2012 10:45:07 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: tatown

Next week-7 to 9 days from today is key. If this holds and its 51-52 then, its just about done.

Romney needs to run like he is 20 points down, all the way to election night.


42 posted on 10/22/2012 10:45:14 AM PDT by crz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner
FROM GALLUP's OWN WEBSITE :


Election Year Presidential Preferences: Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
1936 - 2008

Year Nominees Final Poll Election Results Deviation
2008 Barack Obama 55 52.6  -2
John McCain 44 46.0 +2
2004 George W. Bush 49 50.7  -2
John F. Kerry 49 48.3 +1
2000 George W. Bush 48 47.9   0
Albert Gore, Jr. 46 48.4  -2
Ralph Nader 4   2.7 +1
1996 William J. Clinton 52 49.2 +3
Robert Dole 41 40.7  0
H. Ross Perot 7   8.4 -1
1992 William J. Clinton 49 43.0 +6
George Bush 37 37.4   0
H. Ross Perot 14 18.9 -5
1988 George Bush 56 53.4 +3
Michael Dukakis 44 45.6  -2
1984 Ronald Reagan 59 58.8  0
Walter F. Mondale 41 40.6  0
1980 Ronald Reagan 47 50.7  -4
Jimmy Carter 44 41.0 +3
John Anderson 8   6.6 +1
1976 Jimmy Carter 48 50.1  -2
Gerald Ford 49 48.0 +1
1972 Richard Nixon 62 60.7 +1
George McGovern 38 37.5   0
1968 Richard Nixon 43 43.4   0
Hubert H. Humphrey 42 42.7  -1
George Wallace 15 13.5 +1
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson 64 61.1 +3
Barry Goldwater 36 38.5  -3
1960 John F. Kennedy 51 49.7 +1
Richard Nixon 49 49.5  -1
1956 Dwight Eisenhower 59.5 57.4 +2
Adlai Stevenson 40.5 42.0  -2
1952 Dwight Eisenhower 51 55.1  -4
Adlai Stevenson 49 44.4 +5
1948 Harry S. Truman 44.5 49.5  -5
Thomas E. Dewey 49.5 45.1  -4
Strom Thurmond 4   2.4 +2
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt 51.5 53.4  -2
Thomas E. Dewey 48.5 45.9 +3
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt 52 54.7  -3
Wendell L. Willkie 48 44.8 +3
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 55.7 60.8  -5
Alfred M. Landon 44.3 36.5 +8


43 posted on 10/22/2012 10:45:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: tatown

Of course, they would have got completely different, economy-driven responses, if they’d just asked the women what is most important in the race.

But once they qualify it as a query on ‘issues for women’, the respondents somewhat naturally look to prioritize among those ‘women’s issues’. Made up news intended to help Obama. I guess Axelrod must be pressing on Gallup pretty hard.


44 posted on 10/22/2012 10:47:23 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

I am not sure if Romney would lose even if he said tonight a true gaffe like calling Britain an enemy or something.

I do worry about an Allred October surprise but not any Iran deal. That won’t hurt, though Allred could if the campaign is not prepared to strike back immediately.

I hope they are aware of the rumors out there so they can immediately counter the claims with rebuttal witnesses as soon as it comes out.


45 posted on 10/22/2012 10:51:39 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
The phone lists they’re using may be contacting too many Democrat households.

We now know that only 9% of all calls result in interviews.

Assembling a random sample of the entire universe out of a sample that represents only one-in-eleven is virtually impossible.

Most of the polls weight for the standard demographics -- age, race, gender, income, education, etc. But they do not weight for party identification, simply accepting whatever the result is.

Given the weighting by race, the continual over-sampling of Democrats is obviously an artifact of white Democrats being more likely to answer the phone and respond to a pollster than are white Republicans.

46 posted on 10/22/2012 10:53:13 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: FReepers; FRiends; everyone; RedMDer; DJ MacWoW

"We're down to the final months of the president's term ... You have to wonder what obama's thinking: So little time, so much to redistribute."

GO ROMNEY!


Please Support Free Republic Today!

47 posted on 10/22/2012 10:53:14 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Yes, pretty much proves my point. Since 1952, fairly accurate. Gallup determined after the 1948 election that he had a methodology issue and corrected it.

If you will note, Gallup was low by 2% in 2004 and 2008 for the GOP candidate. They pretty much nailed the GOP numbers in 1996 and 2000. If anything, Gallup tends to report the DEM numbers a bit too high.

48 posted on 10/22/2012 10:54:38 AM PDT by CatOwner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: tatown
This is the message that came along with today's Battleground poll showing Romney +2 overall.

“Two weeks from Election Day, the GOP nominee also continues to maintain a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 80 percent who back Romney. Among this group, ROMNEY LEADS Obama BY 7 POINTS, 52 PERCENT TO 45 PERCENT.”

49 posted on 10/22/2012 10:54:46 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: okie01

I am wondering who is it that is getting polled? I never answer my phone unless I recognize the caller ID. Otherwise, it goes to voice mail, and I call back if it is someone I want to speak with.


50 posted on 10/22/2012 10:56:27 AM PDT by Arthurio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: onyx

That picture is perfect. You have Romney laughing. Obama about to cry. And Chris Matthews (with his overhanging gut) pissed off.

That will be the exact emotions on election night.


51 posted on 10/22/2012 11:01:15 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 47 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Rasmussen projected the 04 presidential results within one percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both George W. Bush and John Kerry.
Rasmussen’s final polls in 08 had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama’s final margin of 53%-46%.


52 posted on 10/22/2012 11:01:52 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: struggle
Obama’s “Flexibility” moment with Medvedev.

Romney has got to find a way to work that one in tonight. Amazingly, very few Americans are aware of Obama telling the Prime Minister of Russia, when he thought he was off-mike, that he will have "more flexibility" in meeting Russia's demands for U.S. disarmament after the election.

This comment borders on treason and it needs to get better exposed. Not that it will change the minds of those that already fully support him but it should be able to swing a lot of Independents and "Reagan Democrat" types.

53 posted on 10/22/2012 11:02:40 AM PDT by SamAdams76
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
at 45 no way O is going to win this election. Stick a fork in him - he’s done.

The Chicago machine will not go away easily. There will be unprecedented levels of vote fraud. We will need every single voter at the polls, because it will come down to how many people show up.

54 posted on 10/22/2012 11:04:57 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
I am wondering who is it that is getting polled? I never answer my phone unless I recognize the caller ID. Otherwise, it goes to voice mail, and I call back if it is someone I want to speak with.

Exactly my point.

A Republican voter is more likely to take this tack than a Democrat voter.

A week ago Friday night, without looking at the Caller ID, I took a pollster's call -- and ended up in the ABC/Washington Post poll announced last Monday (Obama 49, Romney 46). But I've probably failed to pick-up on a half dozen calls by pollsters in the past few months.

55 posted on 10/22/2012 11:05:26 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut; RedMDer

RedMDer captured it!


56 posted on 10/22/2012 11:05:26 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: tatown

If O/Ax want to swing the election in their favor they’re gonna need Gloria Allred to bring forward a number of women who claim to be Mitt’s other wives, seeing that polygamy in the US is outlawed.

Otherwise turn out the lights, the party is over...


57 posted on 10/22/2012 11:05:32 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
With borders:

Election Polls -- Accuracy Record in Presidential Elections

Gallup Poll Accuracy Record

Year Candidates Final Gallup Survey Election Result Gallup Deviation
% % %
2008 Obama 55.0 53.0 +2.0
McCain 44.0 46.0 -2.0
2004 Bush 49.0 50.7 -1.7
Kerry 49.0 48.3 +0.7
2000 Bush 48.0 47.9 0.1
Gore 46.0 48.4 -2.4
Nader 4.0 2.7 1.3
1996 Clinton 52.0 49.2 +2.8
Dole 41.0 40.7 0.3
Perot 7.0 8.4 -1.4
1992 Clinton 49.0 43.3 +5.7
Bush 37.0 37.7 -0.7
Perot 14.0 19.0 -5.0
1988 Bush 56.0 53.0 +3.0
Dukakis 44.0 46.1 -2.1
1984 Reagan 59.0 59.2 -0.2
Mondale 41.0 40.8 +0.2
1980 Reagan 47.0 50.8 -3.8
Carter 44.0 41.0 +3.0
Anderson 8.0 6.6 +1.4
Other 1.0 1.6 -0.6
1976 Carter 48.0 50.1 -2.1
Ford 49.0 48.1 +0.9
McCarthy 2.0 0.9 +1.1
Other 1.0 0.9 +0.1
1972 Nixon 62.0 61.8 +0.2
McGovern 38.0 38.2 -0.2
1968 Nixon 43.0 43.5 -0.5
Humphrey 42.0 42.9 -0.9
Wallace 15.0 13.6 +1.4
1964 Johnson 64.0 61.3 +2.7
Goldwater 36.0 38.7 -2.7
1960 Kennedy 50.5 50.1 +0.4
Nixon 49.5 49.9 -0.4
1956 Eisenhower 59.5 57.8 +1.7
Stevenson 40.5 42.2 -1.7
1952 Eisenhower 51.0 55.4 -4.4
Stevenson 49.0 44.6 +4.4
1948 Truman 44.5 49.5 -5.0
Dewey 49.5 45.1 +4.4
Wallace 4.0 2.4 +1.6
Thurmond 2.0 2.0 0.0
1944 Roosevelt 51.5 53.8 -2.3
Dewey 48.5 46.2 +2.3
1940 Roosevelt 52.0 55.0 -3.0
Willkie 48.0 45.0 +3.0
1936 Roosevelt 55.7 62.5 -6.8
Landon 44.3 37.5 +6.8

58 posted on 10/22/2012 11:06:15 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (To bid on this tagline space: www.jeffchandlerstaglinespace.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: Jeff Chandler

The point to take away from that is that they haven’t been off by 6 points in a two way race. There were large margins in 1948 and 1992 but those were both three way races. There is no national third party to throw off the polling the way Perot did in 1992.


59 posted on 10/22/2012 11:19:33 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 58 | View Replies]

To: GonzoGOP

Still waiting to see dramatic shift to 2-3 points after last debate to show “sudden surge” to Obama,since they aren’t showing any internals


60 posted on 10/22/2012 12:32:32 PM PDT by shoedog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-66 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson