Year | Nominees | Final Poll | Election Results | Deviation |
2008 | Barack Obama | 55 | 52.6 | -2 |
John McCain | 44 | 46.0 | +2 | |
2004 | George W. Bush | 49 | 50.7 | -2 |
John F. Kerry | 49 | 48.3 | +1 | |
2000 | George W. Bush | 48 | 47.9 | 0 |
Albert Gore, Jr. | 46 | 48.4 | -2 | |
Ralph Nader | 4 | 2.7 | +1 | |
1996 | William J. Clinton | 52 | 49.2 | +3 |
Robert Dole | 41 | 40.7 | 0 | |
H. Ross Perot | 7 | 8.4 | -1 | |
1992 | William J. Clinton | 49 | 43.0 | +6 |
George Bush | 37 | 37.4 | 0 | |
H. Ross Perot | 14 | 18.9 | -5 | |
1988 | George Bush | 56 | 53.4 | +3 |
Michael Dukakis | 44 | 45.6 | -2 | |
1984 | Ronald Reagan | 59 | 58.8 | 0 |
Walter F. Mondale | 41 | 40.6 | 0 | |
1980 | Ronald Reagan | 47 | 50.7 | -4 |
Jimmy Carter | 44 | 41.0 | +3 | |
John Anderson | 8 | 6.6 | +1 | |
1976 | Jimmy Carter | 48 | 50.1 | -2 |
Gerald Ford | 49 | 48.0 | +1 | |
1972 | Richard Nixon | 62 | 60.7 | +1 |
George McGovern | 38 | 37.5 | 0 | |
1968 | Richard Nixon | 43 | 43.4 | 0 |
Hubert H. Humphrey | 42 | 42.7 | -1 | |
George Wallace | 15 | 13.5 | +1 | |
1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 64 | 61.1 | +3 |
Barry Goldwater | 36 | 38.5 | -3 | |
1960 | John F. Kennedy | 51 | 49.7 | +1 |
Richard Nixon | 49 | 49.5 | -1 | |
1956 | Dwight Eisenhower | 59.5 | 57.4 | +2 |
Adlai Stevenson | 40.5 | 42.0 | -2 | |
1952 | Dwight Eisenhower | 51 | 55.1 | -4 |
Adlai Stevenson | 49 | 44.4 | +5 | |
1948 | Harry S. Truman | 44.5 | 49.5 | -5 |
Thomas E. Dewey | 49.5 | 45.1 | -4 | |
Strom Thurmond | 4 | 2.4 | +2 | |
1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 51.5 | 53.4 | -2 |
Thomas E. Dewey | 48.5 | 45.9 | +3 | |
1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 52 | 54.7 | -3 |
Wendell L. Willkie | 48 | 44.8 | +3 | |
1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 55.7 | 60.8 | -5 |
Alfred M. Landon | 44.3 | 36.5 | +8 |
If you will note, Gallup was low by 2% in 2004 and 2008 for the GOP candidate. They pretty much nailed the GOP numbers in 1996 and 2000. If anything, Gallup tends to report the DEM numbers a bit too high.
Rasmussen projected the 04 presidential results within one percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both George W. Bush and John Kerry.
Rasmussen’s final polls in 08 had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama’s final margin of 53%-46%.
Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
Year | Candidates | Final Gallup Survey | Election Result | Gallup Deviation |
% | % | % | ||
2008 | Obama | 55.0 | 53.0 | +2.0 |
McCain | 44.0 | 46.0 | -2.0 | |
2004 | Bush | 49.0 | 50.7 | -1.7 |
Kerry | 49.0 | 48.3 | +0.7 | |
2000 | Bush | 48.0 | 47.9 | 0.1 |
Gore | 46.0 | 48.4 | -2.4 | |
Nader | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | |
1996 | Clinton | 52.0 | 49.2 | +2.8 |
Dole | 41.0 | 40.7 | 0.3 | |
Perot | 7.0 | 8.4 | -1.4 | |
1992 | Clinton | 49.0 | 43.3 | +5.7 |
Bush | 37.0 | 37.7 | -0.7 | |
Perot | 14.0 | 19.0 | -5.0 | |
1988 | Bush | 56.0 | 53.0 | +3.0 |
Dukakis | 44.0 | 46.1 | -2.1 | |
1984 | Reagan | 59.0 | 59.2 | -0.2 |
Mondale | 41.0 | 40.8 | +0.2 | |
1980 | Reagan | 47.0 | 50.8 | -3.8 |
Carter | 44.0 | 41.0 | +3.0 | |
Anderson | 8.0 | 6.6 | +1.4 | |
Other | 1.0 | 1.6 | -0.6 | |
1976 | Carter | 48.0 | 50.1 | -2.1 |
Ford | 49.0 | 48.1 | +0.9 | |
McCarthy | 2.0 | 0.9 | +1.1 | |
Other | 1.0 | 0.9 | +0.1 | |
1972 | Nixon | 62.0 | 61.8 | +0.2 |
McGovern | 38.0 | 38.2 | -0.2 | |
1968 | Nixon | 43.0 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
Humphrey | 42.0 | 42.9 | -0.9 | |
Wallace | 15.0 | 13.6 | +1.4 | |
1964 | Johnson | 64.0 | 61.3 | +2.7 |
Goldwater | 36.0 | 38.7 | -2.7 | |
1960 | Kennedy | 50.5 | 50.1 | +0.4 |
Nixon | 49.5 | 49.9 | -0.4 | |
1956 | Eisenhower | 59.5 | 57.8 | +1.7 |
Stevenson | 40.5 | 42.2 | -1.7 | |
1952 | Eisenhower | 51.0 | 55.4 | -4.4 |
Stevenson | 49.0 | 44.6 | +4.4 | |
1948 | Truman | 44.5 | 49.5 | -5.0 |
Dewey | 49.5 | 45.1 | +4.4 | |
Wallace | 4.0 | 2.4 | +1.6 | |
Thurmond | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | |
1944 | Roosevelt | 51.5 | 53.8 | -2.3 |
Dewey | 48.5 | 46.2 | +2.3 | |
1940 | Roosevelt | 52.0 | 55.0 | -3.0 |
Willkie | 48.0 | 45.0 | +3.0 | |
1936 | Roosevelt | 55.7 | 62.5 | -6.8 |
Landon | 44.3 | 37.5 | +6.8 |
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- Ross Perot gave a bigtime endorsement to Mitt Romney last week
- It seems the MSM did not like Perot this time...
- How about Ross Perot, Donald Trump, Steve Winn, and comedian Paul Rodiquez all doing a TV ad together for Mitt?
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Thank you very much. Yours is easiest to read.