[Jeff Chandler]

With borders:

Election Polls -- Accuracy Record in Presidential Elections

Gallup Poll Accuracy Record

Year	Candidates	Final Gallup Survey	Election Result	Gallup Deviation
		%	%	%
2008	Obama	55.0	53.0	+2.0
	McCain	44.0	46.0	-2.0
2004	Bush	49.0	50.7	-1.7
	Kerry	49.0	48.3	+0.7
2000	Bush	48.0	47.9	0.1
	Gore	46.0	48.4	-2.4
	Nader	4.0	2.7	1.3
1996	Clinton	52.0	49.2	+2.8
	Dole	41.0	40.7	0.3
	Perot	7.0	8.4	-1.4
1992	Clinton	49.0	43.3	+5.7
	Bush	37.0	37.7	-0.7
	Perot	14.0	19.0	-5.0
1988	Bush	56.0	53.0	+3.0
	Dukakis	44.0	46.1	-2.1
1984	Reagan	59.0	59.2	-0.2
	Mondale	41.0	40.8	+0.2
1980	Reagan	47.0	50.8	-3.8
	Carter	44.0	41.0	+3.0
	Anderson	8.0	6.6	+1.4
	Other	1.0	1.6	-0.6
1976	Carter	48.0	50.1	-2.1
	Ford	49.0	48.1	+0.9
	McCarthy	2.0	0.9	+1.1
	Other	1.0	0.9	+0.1
1972	Nixon	62.0	61.8	+0.2
	McGovern	38.0	38.2	-0.2
1968	Nixon	43.0	43.5	-0.5
	Humphrey	42.0	42.9	-0.9
	Wallace	15.0	13.6	+1.4
1964	Johnson	64.0	61.3	+2.7
	Goldwater	36.0	38.7	-2.7
1960	Kennedy	50.5	50.1	+0.4
	Nixon	49.5	49.9	-0.4
1956	Eisenhower	59.5	57.8	+1.7
	Stevenson	40.5	42.2	-1.7
1952	Eisenhower	51.0	55.4	-4.4
	Stevenson	49.0	44.6	+4.4
1948	Truman	44.5	49.5	-5.0
	Dewey	49.5	45.1	+4.4
	Wallace	4.0	2.4	+1.6
	Thurmond	2.0	2.0	0.0
1944	Roosevelt	51.5	53.8	-2.3
	Dewey	48.5	46.2	+2.3
1940	Roosevelt	52.0	55.0	-3.0
	Willkie	48.0	45.0	+3.0
1936	Roosevelt	55.7	62.5	-6.8
	Landon	44.3	37.5	+6.8

[GonzoGOP]

The point to take away from that is that they haven’t been off by 6 points in a two way race. There were large margins in 1948 and 1992 but those were both three way races. There is no national third party to throw off the polling the way Perot did in 1992.