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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Rasmussen ^ | Oct. 6, 2012 | Rasmussen

Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesday’s showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.

Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; polls
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To: MrChips

Rasmussen has been increasing Democratic weighting because Republicans aren’t answering the poll calls. According to the rules of polling science, he has to assume that his sample is still representative, and more people really are identifying themselves as Democrats.

(We have good reason to believe that Republicans simply aren’t answering the phone, thus skewing the people who do answer towards the Democratic, but it’s impossible to prove that.)

Let’s say that the breakdown is R33/D33/I33.

If 100% of Rs vote for Romney and 100% of Democrats vote for Obama, and if Independents went 50-50, then the result is 50%R-50%O.

Now let’s assume independents had a 16-point swing and all else were equal.

You’d have Romney = 0%D-100%R-58%I and Obama = 100%D-0%R-42%I. Calculate the total and it’s Romney=52.7% and Obama=47.3%. That’s “only” a 5.4% point swing.

Of course, the reality is that independents are not 33% of the voting electorate and Romney was already leading with them; I am simply positing a “best-case” scenario for independents to speak.


41 posted on 10/06/2012 7:20:51 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: AFPhys
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42 posted on 10/06/2012 7:22:11 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: AFPhys

...hard to believe that there are that many people who support $5/gallon gas and 20% real un/underemployment...


43 posted on 10/06/2012 7:22:11 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: sunmars

I agree. The performance(s) during the debate were striking.

The press keeps relying on the fact that the challenger historically wins the first debate. This may be true, but there is a huge caveat.

What the press is missing (on purpose?) is that never in history has a sitting president, who was hailed as such a intellectual heavyweight, come out looking so bad. And never has a challenger, framed as a goofy, gaffe prone Thurston Howell III caricature, come out looking so presidential.

The media-created images of the two men were the polar opposites of the men on stage. The media, even more than Obama, was shown to be frauds. They (and $150 million in Obama ads) had developed a Hollywood version of Romney - an out of touch Gordon Gecko plutocrat, with a touch of Mormom weirdness. It all blew up in their faces on Wednesday.

I think that is what the Romney camp was counting on all along - and why they held off on advertising, etc. Chris Christie had hinted it by saying, “On Thursday this race will be turned upside down.”

I think Romney takes a lead for good and does not look back. This will be remembered forever. Books will be written based on this moment in time.


44 posted on 10/06/2012 7:22:37 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: sunmars

The weekday vs. weekend polling was on my mind after the debate, while I was discussing things with the friend I viewed it with. It will be nice when next Thursday finally gets here so we can see a full week’s worth of numbers.


45 posted on 10/06/2012 7:23:14 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: AFPhys

You scared the crap out of me. I hadn’t had my 3rd cup of Joe yet. :)


46 posted on 10/06/2012 7:23:32 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Raycpa; AFPhys

Facts are stubborn things.

From the getgo, I said that Romney made a valid point, one that America needs to hear, in that video clip, but that he conflated (mixed together apples and oranges) some things that were inaccurate and not helpful to the point that needs to be made, which is, too many people have become too dependent on government.

In my post you have responded to, I laid out just some of the facts that show that he did conflate things he should not have conflated because it gave misimpressions and inaccuracies that unnecessarily confused the truth and raised the hackles of many.

I stand by my post.

Because it contains the very truths that cause Romney and Ryan to try clearing up the confusion caused by Mitt’s wrongly stated point.

Again, right point, wrongly put.


47 posted on 10/06/2012 7:25:22 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: AFPhys
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48 posted on 10/06/2012 7:26:49 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

Just ‘eye balling’ the breakdown, I’d have to believe that Ras is weighting his turnout model to something like D+7 or D+8. There is no way it is D+4 when Romney attracts more D’s than Obama does R’s and Independents fall to Romney by 16 points!


49 posted on 10/06/2012 7:27:58 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: nhwingut

Excellent analysis, I think, especially your third and fourth paragraphs.


50 posted on 10/06/2012 7:28:39 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: chuckee
Who are these 11% of Republicans not supporting Romney? How can an elephant, even a drunk one, vote for Obama? How many Colin Powells are out there?

I suspect some of those 11% are Republicans who see Romney as too liberal and will vote libertarian or skip the presidential part of the ballot this year.

51 posted on 10/06/2012 7:30:34 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: profit_guy

15% of black vote? I mean thats not a lot, but I thought it was only around 10% in 2008 for McCain wasn’t it?


52 posted on 10/06/2012 7:32:47 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: profit_guy

Looks like from those crosstabs that Romney is doing much better with Hispanics than Obama can afford.


53 posted on 10/06/2012 7:33:12 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: BlueStateRightist

Because those numbers are bogus just like the unemployment numbers....


54 posted on 10/06/2012 7:33:24 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Raycpa
Those that get 100% of their gross income from the government sector ( Fed, State, or local) couldn't give a $hit less if they have some taken back in higher taxes.

For them, higher taxes means their union can demand pay raises, and 20% less of more is still 80% MORE!

55 posted on 10/06/2012 7:33:44 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: AndyTheBear

You are correct...there are a number of Christians, primarily in the south; who will not vote for Romney because he is seen as too liberal or the fact that he is Mormon. That’s just the way it is...


56 posted on 10/06/2012 7:33:44 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Cruising For Freedom

Thank you for all the math! I am a Latin teacher, not a math guy! But, from your numbers, I can now extrapolate a general rule for myself: that in a perfect 33/33/33 model with parity between D & R, a 16 point advantage among Independents would only mean a 5 or 6 point move. So a sample of 20% Independents would move things only 2 or 3 points. So, with a +4 Dem sample (which well may not hold), a +2 lead for Mitt is pretty damned good!


57 posted on 10/06/2012 7:34:30 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: who knows what evil?

I personally think Mormons are sort of goofy.

BUT

I would crawl over broken glass to kiss Mitt’s magic underware at this point!

GO ROMNEY!


58 posted on 10/06/2012 7:36:45 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: profit_guy

Wow.


59 posted on 10/06/2012 7:37:29 AM PDT by rwilson99 (Please tell me how the words "shall not perish and have everlasting life" would NOT apply to Mary.)
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To: tatown

Depends on the size of the sample of Independents.


60 posted on 10/06/2012 7:38:41 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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