Just ‘eye balling’ the breakdown, I’d have to believe that Ras is weighting his turnout model to something like D+7 or D+8. There is no way it is D+4 when Romney attracts more D’s than Obama does R’s and Independents fall to Romney by 16 points!
Depends on the size of the sample of Independents.
His latest party ID breakdown for Sept. was R+2.6 and there were 29% Indies. Not sure why he weighted D’s so high in this poll unless they really started to surge in the end of September ?