Posted on 10/05/2012 5:44:02 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent last month, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years. The rate fell because more people found work, a trend that could impact the presidential election.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
It depends on the meaning of the word "revised."
Are we talking about the number that "is" the "is" right now, or the "is" that was the "is" under Bush? Because everything is Bush's fault.
...there is no unemployment.
114,000 jobs in 30 days equals 3,800 jobs per day. 3,800 jobs divided by 50 states equals an average of 76 new jobs per state, per day.
Approximate average number of new college grads per year: 1,750,000, or 4,794 per day, or 95 per state, per day. That doesn’t include all the unemployed dropping off the rolls, who are also competing for these 76 new jobs per day...
Rush called this last December. He said the unemployment number would magically drop below 8% in the weeks prior to the election with no other evidence of economic improvement.
They couldn’t make it an even 7.0% ???
If they can get away with manufacturing unemployment numbers; they can get away with manufacturing election returns.
Who can afford burgers these days? I've cut out 90% of fast food and coffee shop purchases, cut my cable, my landline and my fitness club membership. And I'm just barely breaking even after all that. The price of gas and groceries is freaking killing us.
I know it’s anecdotal but at the VERY liberal health care provider I work for, I was just told that there will be BIG layoffs starting later this month. We are talking well over 300 people. I was steamed because they have been bleeding money for close to 2 years and have waited until now to lay people off.
It really reeks of political motives knowing their huge support for Obamacare.
On a side note, this place was like a funeral yesterday because of the debate. I overheard one gal saying that Romney was “rude and a bully and didn’t even try to follow the rules of the debate”. I have actually heard that from more than one lib.
What a coincidence! Just like the movie of obama killing bin Laden coming out just two nights before the election! Expect unemployment to miraculously drop to 5% in the next few weeks.
You could have put that 7..8% number on a calendar a year ago.
Anything that you can calendar a year in advance ain’t news.
Oh yeah, I believe this.
They have made adjustments I think 38 of the last 39 times, always in the same direction: worse after the original announcement.
The odds of that are well over the trillions.
The books are well cooked.
No they are two different numbers from two different data sources. The Establishment Survey number is +114K and the Household Survey is +873K. The Household Survey is used in the UE calc.
Um, your own post proves you wrong. Have you actually read it. It states that all of those types of unemployed are NOT counted in the number. Meaning the only people who are included in the UE figures are those who are able to collect insurable benefits. Which is the point all of us have been making. See the following paragraph in which it states that these types of workers are not included in the number. But does that make them employed?
“These data are not used to measure total unemployment because they exclude several important groups. To begin with, not all workers are covered by UI programs. For example, self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, workers in certain not-for-profit organizations, and several other small (primarily seasonal) worker categories are not covered. In addition, the insured unemployed exclude the following:
Unemployed workers who have exhausted their benefits- Shouldn’t they be counted?
Unemployed workers who have not yet earned benefit rights (such as new entrants or reentrants to the labor force- shouldn’t they be counted? They are not working...
Disqualified workers whose unemployment is considered to have resulted from their own actions rather than from economic conditions; for example, a worker discharged for misconduct on the job. Again, are they working?
Otherwise eligible unemployed persons who do not file for benefits” Do they now have a job?
What about all of those small business owners who lost their business? They are not eligible to file most likely. Are they employed? The people above, are they employed?
People who worked commission only jobs who lost them. They are not eligible but are they somehow not worty of being counted?
The point we are all making is that insured UE benefits are not a reliable way to determine the real unemployment rate. Workforce participation is much more reliable. You may want to go back to DU and inform them that your attempt to protect your boy Obama has not worked. Those are the facts.
September Employment Report: 114,000 Jobs, 7.8% Unemployment Rate
by Bill McBride on 10/05/2012 08:30:00 AM
From the BLS:
The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...[Household survey] Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following 3 months of little change. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage point to 58.7 percent, after edging down in the prior 2 months. The overall trend in the employment-population ratio for this year has been flat. The civilian labor force rose by 418,000 to 155.1 million in September, while the labor force participation rate was little changed at 63.6 percent. ...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +141,000 to +181,000, and the change for August was revised from +96,000 to +142,000.
Even though payroll growth was weak, this was a much stronger report than the last few months, especially considering the upward revisions to the July and August reports. And that doesn't include the annual benchmark revision (that will also show more jobs).
This was slightly above expectations of 113,000 payroll jobs added.
The second graph shows the employment population ratio, the participation rate, and the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8% (red line). This is from the household report, and that report showed strong job growth. 
Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment ratesThe Labor Force Participation Rate increased slightly to 63.6% in September (blue line. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.
The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although most of the recent decline is due to demographics.
The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.7% in September (black line). This is still very low.
The third graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.
This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - worse than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.
The fourth graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms compared to other financial crisis (including the Great Depression). 
Percent Job Losses during Financial CrisisThis is an update to a graph by economist Josh Lehner (ht Josh for the data):
[I]n the context of the Big 5 financial crises, the current U.S. cycle suddenly does not look quite as dire. Notice how the x-axis, how long it takes to return to peak levels of employment, is measured in years(!) not months like the first graph.Even though payroll growth was weak and close to expectations (expected was 113,000), overall this was a much stronger report than for recent months. I'll have much more later ...... [T]he U.S. labor market has performed better than 4 of the previous Big 5 crises, as identified by Reinhart and Rogoff, in terms of job loss and the return to peak time line.
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/september-employment-report-114000-jobs.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29&utm_content=Google+Reader#zsrYpUY00V6guK2x.99
I’m not sure about the veracity of these data. With that caveat added though...
...even if these numbers are right, which they MIGHT be, this only indicates an inevitable trend. There was only going to be so much time until the unemployment rate did get better, DESPITE Obama’s incompetence. It’s just the nature of things.
It’s just unfortunate (again IF these numbers are true) that it occurs now. No matter the cause (a real recovery or a manufactured one), it really doesn’t matter. Average Joe isn’t going to care to test the claim. He isn’t going to be like us here on FR, critical of everything this administration does or says. This number will be proclaimed from the rooftops on all the major networks, and in between watching his favorite shows like “Normal” and “American Idol”, Average Joe will say to himself, “Huh, we’ll I guess the economy isn’t as bad as the Republicans say. Better keep Obama in office to finish what he started since it seems to be working now”
We all have to remember this is how the ignorant masses of this country operate. They still have no reason to doubt the media. They have little reason to suspect Obama of manipulating these data. They just refuse to believe he’s as much a threat as we know him to be.
It is, that pathetically simple. The best that can be done at this point is to do as Romney seems to be doing, call this a weak recovery at best. Hammer at that. Again, Average Joe is too lazy to even want to investigate the reality of these data. It’s already settled “fact” in his mind no matter how many of his friends and family are still out of work.
It’s on the TV! It MUSt be “right”, even if his own experience tells him something different. This is the mindset of Average Joe we must not forget, and try to work with, now more than ever.
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