Posted on 09/19/2012 8:57:43 PM PDT by Qbert
The Pew Research Center gives Obama his biggest lead of the week, finding that he "holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November":
With the exception of jobs and the deficit, on which voter opinion is about evenly divided, Obama leads Romney on most key issues, notably healthcare, Medicare, and abortion.And the survey, conducted amid an outbreak of violence in the Middle East and shortly after the killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya, shows that Obama has a wide edge when it comes to foreign affairs and national security. Far more voters see Obama as a strong leader and as the candidate voters believe would use good judgment in a crisis. Voters also express more confidence in Obama than Romney to deal with foreign policy generally, as well as problems in the Middle East. …
Obama’s overall advantage – he leads 51% to 42% among registered voters – does not narrow significantly when looking only at those most likely to vote. Among 2,192 likely voters, Obama leads Romney, 51% to 43%.
So, in the last 24 hours we've seen a 5-point Obama lead from NBC/WSJ, a 1-point Obama lead from AP-GfK and this 8-point lead from Pew. While the top lines numbers vary from poll to poll, the consistent pattern is some edge for Obama on the overall ballot, plus a lead on most individual issues and a dead heat (or something like it) on the economy. If you consider the fundamental conditions of the 2012 cycle, the fact that Romney hasn't been able to establish a lead over Obama on economic issues is probably the most surprising stat of them all.
Good find! Thanks for posting that. Pew had Obama up 53% to McCain’s 38% on Oct 28 2008. 15 points among LIKELY voters! How are they still in business?
What BS.. Invert the numbers and you have what’s really going on.
This “it’s a close race is garbage” and always has been.
You won't see any. Neither will I. We live in TX and GA, respectively.
“Is our nation coming to an end soon?”
Yes.
I seriously can’t believe any MSM polls knowing they always have way more democrats in their samples.
They said Obama leads on Abortion
Obama is a real killer
Well the media sure has it’s new #1 attack line.
“Romney’s missteps” (inexplicably including POing Palestinians in with that,which would be a huge problem if the editorial board of the NY times were the only electors)”.
Osama’s whole tenure has been one giant misstep.
I’ve compared Glove to Tom Dewey a lot, but he needs to take a bag from him and be more careful, no such thing as a private anything in the age of the cell phone camera.
Next week Pew poll: Obama up by 50 points. Last week just before the election, Pew poll: Obama up by 135 points.
Pew was actually tied with Rasmussen for most accurate poll in 2008. And tied with Battleground for most accurate in 2004.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_11_8_04_1018.html
And this report is saying Rasmussen badly missed in 2010 and was bias toward Republicans:
This is scaring me a little.
I agree. Just reviewing some old polling from the past years and we’re behind no matter how many people here wanna dismiss the polls. FReepers do this EVERY SINGLE ELECTION CYCLE and what happens? It’s always closer than we think or we lose.
I’m telling you, Romney is down and floundering a little.
It should be that hard its happened in 1980 and in 1992 and because of the economy which is WORSE now. So why should it be hard with Obama?!
It should.... But they’ll blame Romney’s defeat in Conservatives that voted 3rd party or not at all....and conservatives will look like the bad guy extremists.....
2010 was an epic blowout for Republicans. As I read it -- in essence -- Nate Silver's criticism of Rasmussen in 2010 is that he predicted even more of a blowout for Republicans than actually happened. But that's not unusual. In 1996 Clinton/Dole, Gallup predicted 55% for Clinton but he actually won 49%. In 1964 Johnson/Goldwater, Gallup predicted 64% for Johnson and he actually won 61%. If the outcome is approaching certainty, some aren't going to bother to vote, and I suspect that's even more evident in off-year elections. Rasmussen predicted a Republican blowout in 2010 and there was a Republican blowout in 2010...
As I remember events in 2010, Nancy Pelosi was shocked when she learned that she was going to need to pack up her office and move. And she had access to the Democrat's internal polling. So if Rasmussen was inaccurate, so were a lot of other pollsters.
My own thought is that in 2012 many of the pollsters -- Gallup and Rasmussen are the main exceptions -- are "correcting" their results to match party ID in 2008, and they're doing it because "everybody else" is doing the same thing.
So, a 9-point Dem lead in splits to get an 8-pt lead. Got it.
Well, look at almost any Ras poll. He maybe slightly oversamples Rs, but if turnout splits are like 2010, he should be dead on.
No, I gave this some long thought and I don’t think they are trying to suppress our vote. They know we’ll vote. I think the purpose is this: they know Zero will lose big, and are setting the stage to de-legitimize and de-stabilize the Romney presidency from the outset (”How could this happen? ALL the polls showed Obama up big! The GOP must have cheated.”)
Thank you for the reassurance. It’s hard to stay positive with the world against us and even FR gets so negative I have to leave for awhile.
2010 was so close to the passing of Obamacare and people were upset. I don’t know if people still have the fight in them after SCOTUS screwed us.
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