Pew had Obama at 46 to McCain at 44 this time 4 years ago using this sample
Why the big change in their sample methodology?
Posted on 09/19/2012 8:57:43 PM PDT by Qbert
The Pew Research Center gives Obama his biggest lead of the week, finding that he "holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November":
With the exception of jobs and the deficit, on which voter opinion is about evenly divided, Obama leads Romney on most key issues, notably healthcare, Medicare, and abortion.And the survey, conducted amid an outbreak of violence in the Middle East and shortly after the killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya, shows that Obama has a wide edge when it comes to foreign affairs and national security. Far more voters see Obama as a strong leader and as the candidate voters believe would use good judgment in a crisis. Voters also express more confidence in Obama than Romney to deal with foreign policy generally, as well as problems in the Middle East. …
Obama’s overall advantage – he leads 51% to 42% among registered voters – does not narrow significantly when looking only at those most likely to vote. Among 2,192 likely voters, Obama leads Romney, 51% to 43%.
So, in the last 24 hours we've seen a 5-point Obama lead from NBC/WSJ, a 1-point Obama lead from AP-GfK and this 8-point lead from Pew. While the top lines numbers vary from poll to poll, the consistent pattern is some edge for Obama on the overall ballot, plus a lead on most individual issues and a dead heat (or something like it) on the economy. If you consider the fundamental conditions of the 2012 cycle, the fact that Romney hasn't been able to establish a lead over Obama on economic issues is probably the most surprising stat of them all.
I’m waiting for the Romney campaign to start their carpet-bombing ads. Where are they??
"Problem is, you could do that and still never get any coverage because the media would choose to cover the other stuff instead."
You're absolutely right... but at the same time, there are a lot of people (and not just Conservatives) out there who are turned off by the media's blatant bias this year. TV Viewership numbers are way down. The media doesn't have the same influence that it used to, but they are good at making people think that they do.
There are a lot of people who are out of work, who want to be working, and they just want to hear Romney make his case to them. I think the game will be won on the ground, when all is said and done.
I simply do not believe that.
The media has gotten SO BAD, that this will be the debate.
Moderator: (Obama-fawning question)
Obama: (Does a victory lap, makes a baseless charge against Romney)
Moderator: Mr. Romney, you have 60 seconds to respond.
Romney: Well, I....
(NETWORK CUTS TO COMMENTATORS)
Liberal Commentator #1: Wow, Obama really shined on that last answer.
Liberal Commentator #2: He sure did. Romney cannot possibly answer THAT counterpoint!
Liberal Commentator #1: It's amazing. Obama totally locked up the election just now!
Liberal Commentator #2: Obama is truly an amazing man.
(NETWORK CUTS BACK TO ROMNEY)
Romney: ... is irrefutable, and is exactly my point.
Reagan was behind in the polls by his time. Wait for the debates and even then it’s impossible to cut through the media crap.
Yea, right. Most Americans believe in abortion on demand.
And a cat’s got a carberator and I saw Big Foot a few minutes ago.
“Pew is right - but they spelled it wrong.”
I could be wrong about this, but I believe within the past few days there was posted here on FR a “rating” of about a dozen or more polling outfits, which listed them in order of accuracy (based upon the 2008 election results).
Rasmussen was first, as the polling firm which published polls that most consistently matched the final election tallies.
And wasn’t Pew second or third on that list?
I’m a cold-hearted realist.
No matter how you slice it, this isn’t the best news for Romney.
” Obama is ahead in Florida and Virginia and Minnesota”
It is very hard to unseat a sitting president.
While we all hope the polls are skewed, it is possible that the numbers are accurate and Obama will pull this off.
That is what happened with McCain. The polls showed him behind all the way and they turned our right.
Is our nation coming to an end soon?
Pew is a joke. They consistently had Obama with much bigger leads over McCain than any other pollster. In the final week, they had Obama up by 16 points! It was only in the final poll that they released accurate numbers. Of course, most people only pay attention to the final poll.
I might be wrong but in 2008 I don’t recall people saying the polls were oversampling Dems
See my #48. You confirmed my hunch. It's a scam, and it's criminal.
And in 2010 they showed the Dems holding the House by a wide margin at this point. Yawn!
Pray for America
Pew had Obama at 46 to McCain at 44 this time 4 years ago using this sample
Why the big change in their sample methodology?
This is all you need to see:
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=2,424]:
Democrats - 37%
Republicans - 28%
Independents - 31%
They are actually owned by the Times Mirror Corporation (LA Times).
I don’t trust anything from these people.
Apparently Romney is aiming for the 10-15% of independents who dont wanted to told about Obama does all these things.
I know it sounds crazy...but this what Romney said in the tapes and he may be getting advice like this from his highly paid consultants.
I think Romney is approaching this like a corporate ceo using numbers and sales figures and concentrating on carefully chosen messages and targets, this explains why Romney has run a very gentle campaign.
No matter how you slice it, this isn’t the best news for Romney.”
You could be right, or not... I am not a poll watcher. I think anyone with half a brain knew that this was going to be an uphill battle. The press and much of the legal system is solidly behind BO, and we also have voter fraud issues to deal with.
But, I will vote for Romney because I have to and I will encourage everyone I know and many I don’t to vote for him also. I also have no problem with keeping up my writing letters to my local newspapers and TV stations about untruthful reporting. That and some extra time on bended knee is about all that can be done.
Much has happened just this last week and in some respects, it is a long time until November and a lot can happen between now and then. I do believe that most people that are going to vote have already made up their mind and it will just come down to who is able to generate the greatest turnout.
I do not know who Politico uses for legal advice, not that they are culpable for the poll. Whomever he or she is, to my great, great, great regret my ex wife did not have the same lawyer.
no idea, I assumed they would start right after the Democratic convention.. but so far ... nothing.
I don’t get it, what is Romney doing with all his money? certainly not advertising!
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