Posted on 09/01/2012 3:31:41 PM PDT by xzins
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have “almost finally” decided on an Israeli strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities this fall, and a final decision will be taken “soon,” Israel’s main TV news broadcast reported on Friday evening.
Channel 2 News, the country’s leading news program, devoted much of its Friday night broadcast to the issue, detailing the pros and cons that, it said, have taken Netanyahu and Barak to the brink of approving an Israeli military attack despite opposition from the Obama administration and from many Israeli security chiefs.
Critically, the station’s diplomatic correspondent Udi Segal said, Israel does not believe that the US will take military action as Iran closes in on the bomb.
The US, the TV report said, has not provided Israel with details of an attack plan. President Obama has not promised to attack Iran if all else fails. Conditions cited by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta for an American attack do not calm Israeli concerns. And Obama has a record of seeking UN and Arab League approval before action. All these factors, in Jerusalem’s mind, underline the growing conviction of Netanyahu and Barak that Israel will have to tackle Iran alone, the TV report said.
Israel’s leaders have also noted that president George W. Bush vowed repeatedly that North Korea would not be allowed to attain a nuclear weapons capability — a vow that proved empty.
Obama does not want to intervene militarily before the presidential elections in November, and it is doubtful that he would act afterwards, runs the Israeli assessment, the TV report said. Obama may believe that the US can live with a nuclear Iran, but Israel cannot, the report quoted those in “Netanyahu’s circle” as saying.
As for presidential challenger Mitt Romney, he takes a more forceful position, but would probably not have the domestic support necessary to act in the first year of his presidency, if elected, and after that it would be too late.
The US can live with Iran as a “breakout state” — on the edge of attaining a bomb, the report said the prime minister’s circle believes. But “for Israel, a breakout state is a nuclear state.”
Netanyahu, for his part, “is convinced that thwarting Iran amounts to thwarting a plan to destroy the Jewish people,” Channel 2′s Segal said. The prime minister considers Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to be acting rationally in order to achieve “fanatical” goals.
Segal said that, when considering the imperative to attack, Netanyahu and Barak reason that “we may have reached the moment of truth” after which it would be too late to stop Iran, and that “the price of an attack is far lower than the price of inaction.” It will be “a matter of a few months” before it is too late, Segal said — before, that is, Iran would be immune from damage by an Israeli strike.
The TV report cited intelligence information suggesting that Iran “is much further ahead” than previously thought in its uranium enrichment and in other aspects of its nuclear weapons program.
Segal said Israel’s capacity to impact the Iranian program was dwindling, and the “window of opportunity” was closing. “Four years ago,” he said, an Israeli strike could have set back the Iranian program “by two to four years.” A year from now, an Israeli strike “would have a negligible impact.”
Netanyahu was reported to have said in private conversations that “if no one attacks, Iran will get the bomb” — underlining that he does not believe sanctions will thwart Tehran.
The extensive TV report detailed what it said was the Israeli leadership duo’s thinking on the military, diplomatic and economic consequences of an Israeli strike, and the consequences of Iran getting the bomb.
Militarily, an Israeli strike would prompt missile attacks on Israel, attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah from the south and the north, and upheaval on the Arab street, in the leadership’s assessment. The assessment is that Syria’s President Bashar Assad would not get involved, since this would finish him off, the report said. But if Iran got the bomb, the missile threat would be escalated, Hamas and Hezbollah further empowered, and there would be a danger of any crisis escalating into a nuclear crisis.
Diplomatically, an Israeli strike would prompt a confrontation with the US, global protests, international isolation for Israel, delegitimization, and a situation in which Israel was seen as the aggressor. But if Iran got the bomb, Israel would be defeated and humiliated diplomatically, and would become a liability to the US, the TV report said Israel’s two key leaders believe.
Economically, an Israeli strike would deepen the economic slowdown and lead to a suspension of foreign investment. An Iranian bomb would end foreign investment in Israel, however, and prompt an exodus of Israel’s best brains.
Netanyahu and Barak were said to believe that an Israeli military strike, though opposed by Washington, would not shatter ties with the US. Survey figures that have impacted their thinking suggest significant US support for an American and for an Israeli strike on Iran, the TV report said.
Israel would not be planning to draw the US into a war with Iran by striking at Iran’s nuclear facilities, the report said. And Israel does not believer an attack would prompt regional war.
The TV report made much of a recent speech by Netanyahu, at the scene of Sunday’s terror attack thwarted by Israel at the Gaza-Egypt-Israel border. Visiting the area on Monday, Netanyahu said Israel “must and can” only rely on itself to safeguard its security.
“It becomes clear time after time that when it comes to the safety of Israeli citizens, Israel must and can rely only on itself. No one can fulfill this role except the IDF and different Israel security forces of Israel, and we will continue to conduct ourselves in this way,” Netanyahu said.
If they do attack it will help re-elect “The Divine One.”
bfl
(yawn) I’ve been reading this for a couple of years now.
Poop or get off the pot already.
In “Audacity of Hope” Obama writes: “I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.”
As for me, I will stand with Israel.
WWIII
IMHO, the strike will not be carried out by aircraft..
A war of this nature would last hours, maybe days. Not weeks, and nowhere near enough time for the US to respond.
Prayers for our friend and ally, Israel!
If the US is drawn into the conflict, prior to November 6, it could conceivably create a rally-round-the-flag effect, that would be helpful to the Obama re-election effort.
If that does not happen, however, I am not at all convinced that an Israeli attack upon Iran's known and suspected nuclear facilities would be likely to assist President Obama, in his quest for re-election...
In 2016 THE MOVIE it shows just how much obama hates Israel and all “empires”. His goal is to bring England, France and the US down to third world status. At the end of the movie it shows a map of Israel surrounded by muslim enemies. It brought tears to my eyes.
God help Israel.
The Israel attack:
Submarine launched missiles on Iran targets rather than air strikes is my opinion. Possibly - probably - including some nuclear- if need be.
Swift, little warning, but collateral damage, I estimate some 60,000+ Iranian civilian casualties. Viable trade off COMPARED to HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of Israelis perishing if the attack considers/worries about this number.
If PARAMILITARY targets like the Revolutionary Guard, naval capability and similar regime targets are included - might as well take care of business and reduce retaliation capability, final INITIAL casualties could reach over 200,000 and cripple the regime.
If - as probable - the populace turns on the regime and kills oppressors personally known to them, neighborhood by neighborhood, once the fear of them disappears in the chaos, eventual non-Israeli caused deaths can reach nearly 400,000 - including the most senior clerics - if they have not fled to Russia, Iraq or any rabbit hole they can find.
PsyOps encouraging the Iranian populace to react in this direction after the Israeli attack cripples clerical authority will also cause enough instability and lack of governance to reduce Iranian retributional response.
Submarines already out there!
Israel went thermonuclear (”H-Bomb”) years ago in addition to nuclear (”A-Bomb” which is what Iran is working on) and why not? They’re surrounded by enemies and many top scientists the world over are Jewish. We wouldn’t have a nuclear program without them. Tel Aviv is probably the safest place in the Levant right now.
From the article:
The Patriot anti-missile systems ... will remain packed;
Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense warships may not be dispatched to Israeli waters;
the number of US servicemen sent over for the annual exercise is to be cut by more than two-thirds;
The US defense or second-strike elements ... will not be there;
Barak’s estimate of 500 dead in the worst case of a war with Iran must go by the board;
Netanyahu and Barak are bowing their heads before the Obama administration.
How would the Iranian population react to collateral damage caused by Israelis?
If they use air strikes they may have to hit some of our bases immediately before they hit Iran. And I have to say I wouldn’t blame them. We haven’t been their ally lately. They’ve got nobody to trust but God.
And they should hit every muslim country all at the same time. Make sure her enemies won’t have the means to strike back.
I hope they save one nuke to turn that damnable well in Qom into a vast glowing crater.
It would kick the legs out from under the shiite heads.
I read several months ago that a large, deep, underground facility was being built by Iran and Israel would have to attack before certain “equipment” got moved there as they couldn’t reach it with regular bombs once that happens.
So, there is a deadline and it must have been reached now.
I expect an attack this or next month. When that happens, Lebanon and Gaza and probably Egypt will attack Israel plus Israel will be getting missiles from Iran unless that capability has been knocked out.
Israel expects some of its citizens to die but that is better than the entire nation being destroyed by Iranian nuclear bombs.
Israel won’t use the Samson Option unless a nuclear bomb is coming their way so they know the country will be wiped out - they won’t be the only ones wiped out and I have read that coming from Netanyahu.
There was a time when I read the Jerusalem Post every day - didn’t miss a day. One day there was a headline article that Syria’s nuclear complex that had just been built and workers were there, had been bombed by some unknown planes.
Not a single word in the paper about this place existing until it was already blown to hell that day.
So, I think one day, there will be a “breaking news” alert that Iran has been bombed. I don’t know if it will be by air or sea but it IS going to happen.
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