Academic model: Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes

HotAir ^ | 08/22/2012 | Allahpundit

[nhwingut]

Three reasons why: Economy, economy, economy.

Supposedly, the model’s been accurate to within 20 or so electoral votes in every election since 1980. Dude?

Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.

Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…

Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.

I’m highly skeptical that Romney’s going to come back to take Pennsylvania, even though O’s lead there right now isn’t prohibitive. But like the man says, the model’s usually off by 20 or so EVs. Number of electoral votes Pennsylvania has this year: 20. Golden.

Meanwhile, in the poll of polls…

[Cronos]

Let’s keep the enthu running then :)

[neverdem]

I can’t wait to see the 2012 exit poll.

[editor-surveyor]

Interesting facit of this election is that if Romney gets just one vote more than Obumma he gets all of California’s electors.

Cool, huh!

[little jeremiah]

My goodness, more crawling around supporting the faggot muzzie black racist commie.

Don’t get your hopes up, your boy is going to lose.