Posted on 08/22/2012 6:01:28 PM PDT by nhwingut
Three reasons why: Economy, economy, economy.
Supposedly, the model’s been accurate to within 20 or so electoral votes in every election since 1980. Dude?
Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.
Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…
Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.
I’m highly skeptical that Romney’s going to come back to take Pennsylvania, even though O’s lead there right now isn’t prohibitive. But like the man says, the model’s usually off by 20 or so EVs. Number of electoral votes Pennsylvania has this year: 20. Golden.
Meanwhile, in the poll of polls…
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
You don't understand the idiot vote. This country proved that the LAST election.
In my financial experience, a lot of investment strategies that claim to work in the future because they were “back tested” for 20, 30, 40 or however many years still can fail.
It’s very difficult to accurately simulate all the factors that go into something as complex as an election or the performance of an investment.
I’m not saying they’re completely wrong, just that I’ve seen this claim many times and it didn’t prove out over the future events.
That’s at the low end of how I expect the electorate to vote.
I would not get my hopes up. Obama will likely win Pennsylvania and Ohio, and I think he has a really good shot at Virginia. That would basically end it for him with those 3.
Depressing that my home state of Ohio is going down, especially given some recent in-state R wins and the crappy economy going against Baraq.
Virginia I can see, with Virgil Goode giving Baraq a Clintonian plurality win. And of course NoVa is so friggin’ prosperous from all the govt largesse that Obama will run up a huge margin there.
That’s not at all what it says.
Go throw cold water on yourself :) Otherwise, you’re just wasting your cold water.
Ohio is not Obama’s yet, and he in fact is not leading here at this moment. IIRC, it’s a statistical dead heat.
Anecdotally, and I live in southern Ohio, there is no way he will win southern Ohio. It is overwhelmingly against him.
Don’t count your votes before the liberal judges do. :)
This analysis doesn’t seem to have a way to account for vote fraud, and there will be vote fraud, especially if we’re in the middle of October and Obummer is down by 5 points or more in the polls, if people think they’ve been vicious thus far, you haven’t seen anything yet, they’ll go full all-out gangland warfare true to Chicago style. This will get a lot tougher and nastier before its all over.
I goofed around with the map on 270towin.com. I came up
with romney 389 and obamma 149 (HI,CA,MN,IL,NY,MD,DC,RI,
VT AND MA)
Thats my prediction and i’m willing it to happen although
i’m still going to volunteer with the rjc here in ohio(oiho)
and make phonecalls just in case...
I hope i win the contest and that my country is saved as well.
I think Romney will win closer to 55% of the vote.
How many union voters in Ohio who will overpower any sense of decency?
I would seem that MI is more likely to defect than MN. But Detroit may still save Obama with its voter fraud and uninformed suburban citizenry.
You left off NJ, DE, WA, and OR from the Obama list, and probably PA too.
While the model is heartening, this election and 2008 have something the other years did not. Barack Obama is black. That means that a lot of people voted for him in 2008 because of novelty, racial solidarity, and LOTS of white guilt. Many of them knew nothing about him at all. It didn’t matter. It could well be that nothing will matter this time. Remains to be seen. I doubt that guilt is infinite, but I’m starting to wonder.
2008:
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Economic_models_predict_clear_Obama_win_0801.html
His model, which assumed tepid U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent and a 3 percent rate of inflation, predicted the Republican candidate John McCain’s share of the vote would be 47.8 percent, handing Obama 52.2 percent.
2004:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite an embarrassing failure in their forecasting four years ago, political scientists and economists are again predicting the outcome of the presidential election, and most foresee a win for President George W. Bush.
I seriously doubt that with Ohio and Virginia looking poor right now.
I hope Obama loses - and loses BIG - but things have to look a lot better for Romney than they do right now.
Those still subject to "white guilt" are far more likely to vote for Obama over the telephone than they are in the confines of a voting booth.
I submit that Zero's percentage of the actual vote will be at least 2-3 pts lower than his last poll result.
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