2008:
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Economic_models_predict_clear_Obama_win_0801.html
His model, which assumed tepid U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent and a 3 percent rate of inflation, predicted the Republican candidate John McCain’s share of the vote would be 47.8 percent, handing Obama 52.2 percent.
2004:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite an embarrassing failure in their forecasting four years ago, political scientists and economists are again predicting the outcome of the presidential election, and most foresee a win for President George W. Bush.