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Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?
National Review ^ | 14 Jul 2012 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 07/14/2012 7:59:44 AM PDT by mandaladon

My regular correspondent Number-Cruncher checks in, groaning about the latest Pew poll and that organization’s strange habit of including an unrealistic percentage of Democrats in their sample.

The latest one from Pew poll is a shining example of why our side gets so frustrated with polls. Every time a Pew poll comes out, the numbers appear out of whack. Of course if you are a number-cruncher and look to the cross-tabs, the results are clearly flawed. Pew, to its credit, tells us its history since 1988. Basically in 1988 they did a good job, calling the race almost perfectly, possibly even overestimating Bush support by 0.4% (keep in mind they round so 50-42 could be 7.6%). But since then, their results have been downhill.

Starting in 1992, EVERY Pew poll appears to lean to one direction — always towards the Democrat, and by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Worse this is a reflection of the “final” poll which even the Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, usually gets right.

October 1988 — Bush 50 Dukakis 42; Actual Result Bush +7.6 (Call this one spot on.)

Late October 1992 — Clinton 44 Bush 34; Actual Result :Clinton +5.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +5.5)

November 1996 — Clinton +51 Dole 32; Actual Result Clinton +8.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +10.5)

November 2000 — Gore 45; Bush 41 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.5)

November 2004 — Kerry 46; Bush 45 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.4)

November 2008 — Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; corruption; democrats; electionfraud; elections; fraud; obama; polls; romney
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After being wrong in the same direction so consistently, wouldn’t you think that Pew might attempt to adjust their sampling techniques to adjust their techniques to avoid under-sampling Republican voters? Keep in mind the polls I have highlighted are the last polls in the race. I find it interesting that not one of their poll statisticians came out and said, ‘Boss, these results look whacked out because the electorate is going to be more than 24 percent Republican, and self-identified Democrats aren’t going to outpace Republicans by 9 percentage points.’ The Democrats couldn’t even reach that margin in 2008 . . . and you wonder why so many people think Obama is going to win. .......................They don't care they just want Zero to win.
1 posted on 07/14/2012 7:59:54 AM PDT by mandaladon
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To: mandaladon

They always do until a week or so before the election so they can say “voters broke for” and save their reputation.

You need but look at what team Obama is currently doing to know who is really leading.


2 posted on 07/14/2012 8:02:29 AM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: mandaladon

Why do Democrats, blacks and minorites fight so vehemently against voter ID with pictures? One is cheating before the election; the other is cheating during the election.


3 posted on 07/14/2012 8:02:47 AM PDT by Gaffer (NOVEMBER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: mandaladon
Polls are mostly sold to Media outlets. If the Polls aren't close people will pay less attention to the BoobTube and as a result Ad revenues will drop. Sooooo to keep the idiots watching the polls need to be close.

Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy...

4 posted on 07/14/2012 8:03:57 AM PDT by Mad Dawgg (If you're going to deny my 1st Amendment rights then I must proceed to the 2nd one...)
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To: mandaladon
if they don't keep the narrative a "horse race" no one will tune in to their broadcasts or click their links. Read the internals, factor in demographic and trends and factor for whatever variables need to be used to get the closest "guess."

Remember most pollsters are part of the narrative and are commissioned by the candidates.

Wonder why "internal polls" cost so much and we never get to see them? It's because the truth would change the narrative.

5 posted on 07/14/2012 8:07:25 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
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To: mandaladon
They are setting the stage for the "The election was stolen" race riots when Ubama loses.
6 posted on 07/14/2012 8:11:17 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: mandaladon
So I ask are the people at Pew insane or just biased?

Yes, yes.
7 posted on 07/14/2012 8:13:35 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: Mad Dawgg
“Polls are mostly sold to Media outlets. If the Polls aren't close people will pay less attention to the BoobTube and as a result Ad revenues will drop. Sooooo to keep the idiots watching the polls need to be close.
Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy...” Bing bing bing bing bing! We have a winner! Give the Mad Dawgg as cigar!
Rasmussen is one of the biggest offenders of this kind.
Here's the question NONE of these people who are telling us this race is close can answer: Since Obama is not winning a single group he lost last time and he is not doing better with ANY group he won last time - not even Blacks- how can he even be close?
The answer is they over sample Democrats and make believe there is no enthusiasm gap.
8 posted on 07/14/2012 8:14:44 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: mandaladon

They have to rig the polls so that when they steal the election through electronic voting machine hacks and other election fraud, people will not be surprised that Obama “won.”

If we really knew how wide the gap is between the majority in this country who despise Obama and his administration and his senseless supporters, I would bet we’d be amazed at how very disliked the commie in the White House truly is.


9 posted on 07/14/2012 8:14:52 AM PDT by WXRGina (Further up and further in!)
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To: mandaladon

When’s the last time you (and most conservatives) picked up the phone when a pollster/unknown caller was on the other end? I avoid those calls like the plague and am guessing most other conservatives do too. Libs don’t have much better to do than inaccurately influence polls so they answer... :)


10 posted on 07/14/2012 8:18:51 AM PDT by meangene (Bring on more of that "crony capitalism"...please!)
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To: mandaladon

I suspect it’s harder to get Republicans to participate in polls. Pollsters always call me at one of two times: 1) when I’m getting ready to leave for work, or 2) when my family is sitting down to a meal. Since many liberals neither work nor spend much time with their families, it’s not hard to see why their opinions might be overrepresented.


11 posted on 07/14/2012 8:18:57 AM PDT by July4 (Remember the price paid for your freedom.)
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To: mandaladon

There are many studies which suggest that having MSM on your side is worth about five percentage points. By skewing their polls in one direction major MSM outlets are attempting to create bandwagons.


12 posted on 07/14/2012 8:19:32 AM PDT by monocle
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To: meangene

I just did and it was GREAT fun.

After giving him very spirited answers to three questions he hung up on me.

I doubt that the Dems will be calling me again.


13 posted on 07/14/2012 8:26:22 AM PDT by COUNTrecount (Barry...above his poi grade.)
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To: mandaladon

“They don’t care they just want Zero to win. “

Yes, while that’s true, I could make the case that by cooking the numbers, they give the average RAT voter ( you know the ones with single digit I.Q.s) a false sense of security about Obama winning re-election and so they stay home, because besides being stupid, they are lazy!


14 posted on 07/14/2012 8:26:49 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: mandaladon
This is why.
15 posted on 07/14/2012 8:28:03 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Borg Zombies walk around groaning "Commmppuutteerrrrssss......Commmppuutteerrrrssss......")
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Why wait for after the election?!?

I maintain the Obama campaign will use this card BEFORE the election to scare the independent votes to go with “The Won”.

16 posted on 07/14/2012 8:28:08 AM PDT by mneville (Scorched Earth in September)
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To: mandaladon

Republicans/conservatives/libertarians tend to have lives, and tend to spend their time living their lives, and not sitting by the telephone with the shades drawn waiting for a call like Democrats do.


17 posted on 07/14/2012 8:39:49 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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18 posted on 07/14/2012 8:40:23 AM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: mandaladon

Democrat voter registration is down, especially for blacks. Independents are on the rise. There’s approx. 10% that are undecided. Undecideds historically vote against incumbents which portends a landslide for Romney.

Things will get worse for Obama because he has chosen to get nasty so his personal image will be degraded.


19 posted on 07/14/2012 8:43:33 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: cableguymn
You need but look at what team Obama is currently doing to know who is really leading.

On another thread, a FReeper said that he was seeing tons of Obama ads on Bain/outsourcing in Western Washington. (BTW, Western WA is the blue side of the state.) Should already be in the bag for Obama.

20 posted on 07/14/2012 8:44:27 AM PDT by sportutegrl
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