Posted on 07/08/2012 6:06:48 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
I say let Romney select Rubio, nobody is paying attention anyway to the eligibility laws anyhow. /sarc
But seriously it may be worth the effort as it may draw out enough inspection and illumination upon Rubio that something else may come to light upon Obamas own eligibility status.
Plus unprecedented vote fraud. Beware!
Yes, that is the standard Hussein Head argument for sucking up to Hussein.
“My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turn around America.”
A bunch of hogwash. First, he doesn’t have the name recognition, the money, or the political machine to be successful. He would be another Ross Perot...siphoning votes from from one or both candidates and insuring a possible re-election of Obama for another four years. Something that will be a total disaster for the US. Romney might be just as bad, but he would have to prove that to me first.
I agree totally with your assessment that both liberal Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the brink of economic disaster.
What we really need right now is a conservative house and senate too counter this liberal onslaught.
We act like Rubio is the only Hispanic in the United States. He will pick Portman.
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“We act like Rubio is the only Hispanic in the U.S.; he will pic Portman.” Wow! Portman doesn’t sound like a Hispanic name to me. (Tongue in cheek.)
Portman would be good for the fact that “maybe” he would help Romney carry the much needed State of Ohio. Problem is, you’d have two guys on the Ticket who have the Charisma of a foot stool.
My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November
A wasted vote. And Johnson is an idiot. He wants totally open borders and amnesty for illegals, but he also wants D.C. to impose same-sex marriage on the states. How ANYONE could pull the lever for this tool is beyond me.
Yes he is. Nobody's buying that birther crap.
You mean he was NOT born in the USA? News to me.
This does not at all factor in the 11-pt jump among Hispanics after his recent amnesty decree. If that increases as he continues his ceasing of deportations, it will help him. It is a big unknown right now. But the importance of the "Hispanic vote" (if there is such a thing) is overrated, as they are only 8% of voters vs. 20% of the population (because so many are illegal).
Rubio rejects TEA Party
Rubio pushing amnesty
Rubio IS A BIG GOVT RINO
WA Root is correct...however Romney picking Rubio will do nothing. It will not help in Florida...and may cost him votes in other states
This myth that “GOP wins Hispanic votes by pushing Illegal Alien Amnesty” is total BS. John McCain, who authored the Illegal Alien Amnesty bill in 2007, got 31% of the Hispanic vote. McCain drove away more pro-American/anti-Illegal voters than gained Hispanic voters.
Marco Rubio is Hispano-Racist, and the only thing he has done in the Senate is push Illegal Alien Amnesty (DREAM Act). In fact, his votes side with the Democrats about as much as the liberal NE GOP Senators. A vote for Rubio is a vote for a Liberal.
And, I have not even got to Rubio being a sock puppet for the Bush family. After Roberts going liberal on ObamaCare...we need to stay far away from anything Bush
And, replacing the Black Racism of the Obama Admin with the Hispano-Racism of a Romney Admin with Rubio is no substitute
We need to end this “Rubio for VP” nonsense. It is Conservative suicide
"I'd like to put these VP nomination rumors to rest once and for all. While serving as VP would be a great honor, I'd not be able to accept the office as I am not a Natural Born Citizen.
My parents became US Citizens after my birth so by the eligibility requirements specified in Article. II. Section. 1. I'm not eligible.
The fact that the CommiecRAT Party lied about their usurper Obama's status doesn't change the Constitutional Natural Born Citizen requirement."
I don’t believe Rubio is needed to win Florida and I believe him when he says he doesn’t want it.
Romney will be smart to pick Portman. He will not win Florida with Rubio....but he will win Ohio with Portman.
A Florida politician would be baggage for Romney. Gov Scott is unpopular w both Dems and GOP...and Rubio is Cuban-American...which is a turnoff in the mostly Puerto Rican areas of Central Florida. In fact, Florida’s I-4 Corridor is the one region in the state that is the one region to win...win it and win the state. A Cubano does not sit well with a Borincua majority I-4 corridor
So at what point in the “chain” could Rubio’s descendnets be eligible to run for president? His children born in the US? His grandchildren?
Wasn’t Rubio born in the US even though his parents were naturalized? If not, perhaps that is where I am not understanding your post.
So at what point in the “chain” could Rubio’s descendnets be eligible to run for president? His children born in the US? His grandchildren?
Wasn’t Rubio born in the US even though his parents were naturalized? If not, perhaps that is where I am not understanding your post.
Then he can be passed over as president and still serve as vp. Is that correct?
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