Posted on 01/29/2012 10:36:59 AM PST by Steelfish
NBC/Marist Poll: Romney Up 15 Over Gingrich In Florida
Domenico Montanaro
Mitt Romney may be on his way to a decisive victory in the Florida GOP primary Tuesday, according to a new NBC/Marist poll.
Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 points, 42 percent to 27 percent in the crucial state. Rick Santorum is third with 16 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 11 percent. Just 4 percent said they were undecided. "The bottom line in all this is Romney's sitting in the driver's seat going into Tuesday," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, who conducted the poll.
If Romney pulls off a victory of that magnitude, he could be on a glide path to the nomination. But there are warning signs for the Republican Party that the primary has taken a toll on Romney and the rest of the GOP field. Each of the candidates struggles in a general-election matchup with President Barack Obama in this swing state, especially with independents.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL POLL.) (CLICK HERE FOR POLL OVERVIEW AND MARGIN OF ERROR.)
How Romney wins: Consolidates supporters, women
Romney beats Gingrich and the rest of the field by winning broadly across many subgroups -- those who are not Tea Party supporters (52 percent), those who are liberal or moderate (49 percent), make more than $75,000 a year (49 percent), identify as "conservative" (47 percent), and, in particular with women.
There was a stark gender gap between Romney and Gingrich. Women said they preferred Romney by 47-26 percent over Gingrich. The gap is closer with men, but Romney leads with them as well, 38-29 percent.
"He's winning both," Miringoff said, "but runs up the score among women."
Romney also does well enough with Tea Party supporters, splitting the vote....
(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.msnbc.msn.com ...
This is how it was reported in a NY Times blog less than week ago: Since then the torrent of negative ads, the Seniors, Jewish and Hispanic vote have swung against Gingrich.
January 23, 2012 New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich By NATE SILVER 1:59 p.m. | Updated
"I had written on Saturday night, before the results of the South Carolina primary were known, that Mitt Romney could not necessarily bank on holding down a lead in Florida despite recently having had a double-digit advantage in the polls there.
These polls had not yet accounted for the large swing against Mr. Romney and toward Mr. Gingrich in state and national polls. The Gallup national tracking poll, for instance, now shows Mr. Romney at 29 percent and Mr. Gingrich at 28 percent, which represents a 23-point swing from 8 days ago when Mr. Romney led Mr. Gingrich, 37-13. And the swing against Mr. Romney in South Carolina — from a lead of about 12 points in the polls early last week to a loss by about that margin on Saturday night — was closer to 25 points.
Two new automated polls suggest that the swing in momentum — plus whatever additional gains Mr. Gingrich made from the favorable news coverage following his South Carolina win — are enough to have given him the lead in Florida.
The first poll, from Rasmussen Reports, puts Mr. Gingrich ahead by 9 points, 41 to 32. The second poll, from Insider Advantage, pegs Mr. Gingrich’s lead at 8 points. Both polls conducted all their interviews on Sunday in the immediate aftermath of Mr. Gingrich’s South Carolina victory."
I do not believe these polls. Mitt may win, but not by 15%.
Vomit @ this poll.
Newt needs 15 more and Santorum has 16%
Will Santorum become known as the next Nader?
Well, this IS PMSNBC polling...
The 21-point lead Romney has with women voters is something no candidate can easily overcome. Even if Santorum drops off, this does not mean a large chunk of the female vote will go to Gingrich. Gosh, who knew those chromosones will play a decisive role in American politics.
The only way Newt can get out of the hole is to apologetically advocate lower taxes for the wealthy.
I note that there is no date on this poll other than Jan 2012.
Will Santorum become known as the next Nader?
No because not every percent of his votes will go to Newt. The reason Newt is losing is because he did bad in the debates especially that stock slap that Romney did on him and he stood there with his mouth open. It was extremely damaging and made Newt look really bad. That is why he lost Florida and not anything with Santorum. Why he did not say SOMETHING, ANYTHING after that pounding is beyond me.
It should be a law that no woman be allowed to vote unless she is a Freeper.
Okay okay... that goes for the men too
Perhaps I’m not remembering correctly, but didn’t the polls also show mittens ahead of Newt in SC as well?
You are right. The accompanying pdf does not tell when the poll was taken.
Are the FL delegates winner take all?
That right there is horse crap!
Sorry for the strong language but these people are pissing me off more and more each day!
Hmmm....
Smells like spin.
Women went 36% for Newt vs. 30% for Mitt in S.C.
Nineteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution
Some things never change...
Yes, and Mitt told Santorum that government-run health care was “nothing to get upset about.”
Gingrich did not attack capitalism. Rush Limbaugh was, as usual, putting his mouth in motion before his mind was in gear.
Questioning someone’s business practices, especially when that person has made completely unfounded and misleading claims about the business, is perfectly legitimate and is not an attack on capitalism.
Well, unless you want to pretend to believe it is.
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