20 would be better.
Great news! I won’t relax until after the votes are all counted. GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NEWT!!!!!
So let’s suppose Newt wins SC. How do they continue the “Mitt is inevitable meme if out of three contests, he lost two?
A Newt inside pollster put the victory margin within the 4-6 point range. I would be very surprised if he got over 40% or if the victory was double-digits.
The reason it’s looking bad for Romney: all those little counties that went for McCain, Romney is losing or barely even. And if my last projection was correct, Romney is losing in Lexington County, which was thought to be a strong-hold. The only areas Romney has any kind of lead in are Charleston, Beaufort, Richland, McCormick, and Horry.
Right now I have Newt at 35.36%, winning by about 14,000 votes to Romney’s 32.56% to Santorum’s 17.67% to Paul’s 14.41%. It’s looking more like Santorum’s numbers are too high even though I only gave him 60% of the Evangelical Base, but made sure to give Newt the 2-1 edge overall when the Huckabee and Thompson supporters are combined.
One other itemm. The SC Primary is almost half women, and the combined voters of Huckabee and Thompson was around 53% women. If PPD’s numbers about a 9 or 10 point lead are true, it would mean that Gingrich is winning the female vote and that the gender gap is not as significant as it was first reported in IA and NH. Haven’t seen this yet, so have nothing to compare it to.
People have had it.
The reported death of the TEA party is turning out to be premature. Yes, I know Newt is not the perfection conservative, but the conservative base is onto the fact the RINO-MSM establishment has been picking Romney as the candidate for them, and they don’t like it.
Lindsey Graham on Greta right now talking up Newt’s surge. They don’t come more establishment republican than Lindsey. Few people know the South Carolina voting base better than Lindsey Graham. He says that essentially Newt has turned this primary and has shown passion. I believe the trend that PPP is showing is real. Even CBS online is tending to Newt.
The aggravating part is the ‘experts’ like Dick Morris, and Michael Barone, who I really respect, who think Santorum won last night and that it’s still open in SC. After watching all these guys I think in the context of SC alone, Newt wins. The Morris and Barone take may take a more national perspective. Lastly watching Romney take another shot and demanding Newt release the records on the Ethics Trial is a sure sign of collapse in SC and overall.
This all considered, things look good for Newt tomorrow!
Just tonite, O’Reilly and one of his guests (Lou Dobbs I think) were saying that while Newt has a chance, it’s “gonna be close, definitely not gonna be a double-digit victory for anyone”....
Love to see ‘em proved wrong!
Newt Gingrich: What Kind of Catholic Is He? [Born Lutheran, Turned Baptist, Now Catholic]
Newt Gingrich: America’s Next Catholic President?
Clemson Palmetto Poll finds Gingrich (38%) momentum growing, most S.C. GOP voters still uncommitted
Gingrich Threatens GOP's Chance to Nab Independents
The Evangelical Case for Newt Gingrich
Gingrich Represents New Political Era for Catholics
Gingrich Represents New Political Era for Catholics [ecumenical}
Newt Gingrich on Catholicism and JPII
Why Newt Gingrich Converted to Catholicism
Exclusive: Newt Gingrich Opens Up on Catholic Conversion and Embracing 'Overt Christianity'
Newt Gingrich on his conversion to Catholicism
Gingrich Keeps Quiet on Catholic Conversion (received into Church over the past weekend)
Exclusive: Newt Gingrich conversion details; plans release of JP2 documentary
Gingrich to Become Catholic During Easter Season
The Newt Evangelization: Gingrich to become Catholic
Santorum is the best, but if not him, Gingrich is still better than Romney. As long as it is not RhinOMoNEY Romney, Gingrich is tolerable.