A Newt inside pollster put the victory margin within the 4-6 point range. I would be very surprised if he got over 40% or if the victory was double-digits.
The reason it’s looking bad for Romney: all those little counties that went for McCain, Romney is losing or barely even. And if my last projection was correct, Romney is losing in Lexington County, which was thought to be a strong-hold. The only areas Romney has any kind of lead in are Charleston, Beaufort, Richland, McCormick, and Horry.
Right now I have Newt at 35.36%, winning by about 14,000 votes to Romney’s 32.56% to Santorum’s 17.67% to Paul’s 14.41%. It’s looking more like Santorum’s numbers are too high even though I only gave him 60% of the Evangelical Base, but made sure to give Newt the 2-1 edge overall when the Huckabee and Thompson supporters are combined.
One other itemm. The SC Primary is almost half women, and the combined voters of Huckabee and Thompson was around 53% women. If PPD’s numbers about a 9 or 10 point lead are true, it would mean that Gingrich is winning the female vote and that the gender gap is not as significant as it was first reported in IA and NH. Haven’t seen this yet, so have nothing to compare it to.
Newt +14 (Newt-40, Mitt-26) in Friday night polling...
Romney has the Gay Vote locked up.
Mittens could have made SC close possibly even winning it. His Failure to release tax may give Newt a 10-15% advantage when the final numbers come in on SC.
Failing to release before FL will give the win to Newt.
He is completely unacceptable to the thinking American. Neither is obama, but then again there's a huge number of Americans who just don't think.