Posted on 01/20/2012 7:27:48 PM PST by TBBT
Normally I wouldn’t build a post around a single tweet but this one from PPP is too tantalizing to ignore. Polls open in SC tomorrow bright and early at 7 a.m.:
Newt posted his best numbers of our 3 day field period tonight
On Wednesday, they found Gingrich with a six-point lead. Yesterday they found the same. Today it’s … greater than six, although they haven’t posted the exact numbers yet. Jed Lewison of Daily Kos, which uses PPP as its pollster, guesses it’s now Newt by nine or 10 points, which makes sense if you assume another little boost from last night’s debate plus Perry dropping out and endorsing Gingrich. The exact numbers are less important, though, than the fact that Newt’s apparently putting distance between himself and Romney as time runs out. Hard to see how he doesn’t win now — dirty tricks notwithstanding. (He’s at 82 percent on InTrade, up more than 10 points from this afternoon.)
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
20 would be better.
Great news! I won’t relax until after the votes are all counted. GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NEWT!!!!!
Won’t happen until Santorum stops clinging...
So let’s suppose Newt wins SC. How do they continue the “Mitt is inevitable meme if out of three contests, he lost two?
A Newt inside pollster put the victory margin within the 4-6 point range. I would be very surprised if he got over 40% or if the victory was double-digits.
The reason it’s looking bad for Romney: all those little counties that went for McCain, Romney is losing or barely even. And if my last projection was correct, Romney is losing in Lexington County, which was thought to be a strong-hold. The only areas Romney has any kind of lead in are Charleston, Beaufort, Richland, McCormick, and Horry.
Right now I have Newt at 35.36%, winning by about 14,000 votes to Romney’s 32.56% to Santorum’s 17.67% to Paul’s 14.41%. It’s looking more like Santorum’s numbers are too high even though I only gave him 60% of the Evangelical Base, but made sure to give Newt the 2-1 edge overall when the Huckabee and Thompson supporters are combined.
One other itemm. The SC Primary is almost half women, and the combined voters of Huckabee and Thompson was around 53% women. If PPD’s numbers about a 9 or 10 point lead are true, it would mean that Gingrich is winning the female vote and that the gender gap is not as significant as it was first reported in IA and NH. Haven’t seen this yet, so have nothing to compare it to.
They'll just keep repeating it until people believe it.
Did you see my last simulation? I didn’t ping or anything.
I have Newt by 14,000 votes.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2835567/posts
I also have every county in the first comment analyzed.
People have had it.
The reported death of the TEA party is turning out to be premature. Yes, I know Newt is not the perfection conservative, but the conservative base is onto the fact the RINO-MSM establishment has been picking Romney as the candidate for them, and they don’t like it.
Lindsey Graham on Greta right now talking up Newt’s surge. They don’t come more establishment republican than Lindsey. Few people know the South Carolina voting base better than Lindsey Graham. He says that essentially Newt has turned this primary and has shown passion. I believe the trend that PPP is showing is real. Even CBS online is tending to Newt.
The aggravating part is the ‘experts’ like Dick Morris, and Michael Barone, who I really respect, who think Santorum won last night and that it’s still open in SC. After watching all these guys I think in the context of SC alone, Newt wins. The Morris and Barone take may take a more national perspective. Lastly watching Romney take another shot and demanding Newt release the records on the Ethics Trial is a sure sign of collapse in SC and overall.
This all considered, things look good for Newt tomorrow!
OMG, I'm voting for s slimy serial adulterer. Forgive me Lord, but we have no other choice.
Newt +14 (Newt-40, Mitt-26) in Friday night polling...
Where? The PPD one that just got posted has Newt 37 Romney 28 Santorum 16 Paul 14.
Good job, thanks for your work, sure puts a smile on my face!
Read the internals of the PPP poll, posted in another thread above this one.
a “forgiven” slimy serial adulterer. ;)
Funny how the Newt-bashers avoid these good news threads like the plague.
I guess it demoralizes them.
Just tonite, O’Reilly and one of his guests (Lou Dobbs I think) were saying that while Newt has a chance, it’s “gonna be close, definitely not gonna be a double-digit victory for anyone”....
Love to see ‘em proved wrong!
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