Posted on 12/29/2011 6:20:16 AM PST by TBBT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Don't worry, Gingrich supporters -- despite the falling poll numbers in Iowa over the last week, your guy remains most likely to win the Republican nomination. Let me explain why and how.
First of all, let's stipulate that this race isn't about the issues anymore. Newt Gingrich's positions are mostly similar to Mitt Romney's positions, both of whom are to the left of most of the other candidates, such as Perry and Bachmann in particular.
A few days before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, people have come to peace with the candidates' ideological positions, and it's all about electability and willingness of primary voters to cast the ballot. The conventional wisdom is of course that Romney is the most "electable" candidate, and that is probably true in some sense. But only in some. Romney clearly has many fine merits, including years of being vetted, having a distinguished business background, a first-class family, and he is a generally very smart and polished man.
(Excerpt) Read more at thestreet.com ...
Twenty Republicans gathered in the House office of Lindsey Graham to plot Gingrich’s overthrow. Among those 20 in support of the coup were LINDSEY GRAHAM, JOE SCARBOROUGH, and JOHN BOEHNER.
noot ...LOL, someone else calls him that...
I don't even think that noot had any expectations of being nominated months ago, but maybe when he saw his turn to rise in the polls he got those grand visions of himself that come time to time. Heck, he got in early enough to get those VA signatures if he was serious about running many months ago.
Newt has tanked at Intrade, down from high 30s to 5.7.
Oh, yea, it was those stupid “Pure Conservatives” who insisted on promoting and voting for losing second tier candidates without a second thought.
Say hello to your new overlords, the GOP/RNC and their candidate Willard Romney. The owe you a debt of gratitude for helping them make an otherwise losing candidate a sure winner by default!
Hate to break this to you, but Gingrich is a Conservative only when he needs Conservative votes.
Half the marriages end in divorce. Means there’s a mismatch somewhere. Bad and/or weak marriages produce affairs....not the other way around.
If Iowa were such a big deal then Huckabee woulda been the nominee in 2008 we know how that worked out.
Iowa propelled Huckabee to the 2nd most delegates to the convention.
He would have finished even stronger, maybe even winning the nomination, had not Rush Limbaugh and the Right jumped on board the Romney campaign in a fruitless attempt to stop McCain, thus spawning Romney 2012.
Newt is now tied for 4th in Iowa.
He's still a second tier candidate, but Mr. Pelosi is certainly not a "Pure Conservative".
Wait, who are you criticizing, again?
Pretty good article with one big exception. When the race gets to South Carolina it will not be up for grabs betweeen Newt Gingrich and the father of homosexual marriage in
Mass. The liberal Romney will get no momentum from wins in NH and maybe Iowa. We are talking about the south in South Carolina and conservative Christian voters who not only
despise snotty New England liberals, they have no use for anyone that is a member of an anti-Christian cult like Romney. Gingrich will win SC going away and unless he decides to get out of the race before Florida will win Florida also. The father of homosexual marriage in Mass will not win the first southern primary. It will be his Waterloo.
Delagates
Jan 3 Iowa caucus 28
?
Jan 10 New Hampshire primary 12
?
Jan 21 South Carolina primary 25
Newt
Jan 31 Florida primary 50
Newt
Feb 4 Nevada caucus 28
Newt
Feb 4–11 Maine caucus 24
?
Feb 7 Colorado caucus 36
?
Feb 7 Minnesota caucus 40
?
Feb 28 Arizona primary 29
Newt
Michigan primary 30
Newt
Mar 3 Washington caucus 43
Newt
Alaska caucus 27
Newt
Georgia primary 76
Newt
Idaho caucus 32
Newt
Mass primary 41
RINO
North Dakota caucus 28
Newt
Mar 6 Ohio primary 66
Newt
Oklahoma primary 43
Newt
Tennessee primary 58
Newt
Vermont primary 17
?
Virginia primary 50
Newt (Perry will win suit)
Mar 6–10 Wyoming caucus 29
Newt
Mar 10 Kansas caucus 40
Newt
Mar 13 Alabama primary 50
Newt
Hawaii caucus 20
?
Mississippi primary 40
Newt
Mar 17 Missouri caucus 52
Newt
Mar 20 Illinois primary 69
Newt
Mar 24 Louisiana primary 46
Newt
Apr 3 Maryland primary 37
?
Texas primary 155
Newt or Perry
Wash D.C. primary 19
?
Wisconsin primary 42
Newt
Apr 24 Connecticut primary 28
?
Delaware primary 17
?
New York primary 95
?
Pennsylvania primary 72
Newt
Rhode Island primary 19
?
May 8 Indiana primary 46
Newt
North Carolina primary 55
Newt
West Virginia primary 31
Newt
May 15 Nebraska primary 35
Newt
Oregon primary 29
Newt
May 22 Arkansas primary 36
Newt
Kentucky primary 45
Newt
Jun 5 California primary 172
?
Montana primary 26
Newt
New Jersey primary 50
Newt
New Mexico primary 23
Newt
South Dakota primary 28
Newt
Jun 26 Utah primary 40
RINO
Florida will be left to choose between the lesser of two evils, Romney or Paul.
Florida will be choosing the Nominee.
jmo
I hope you’re right about the south being Romney’s waterloo. However, my worry is that with a potential Santorum surge, the conservative vote will be split in the south allowing Romney to squeeze through. Also, Nikki Haley has been co-opted to support Romney and I’ve no doube Gov. Scott of Florida is being pressured as I write this to support Romney also. Just like in 2008 when Govs. Sanford and Crist endorsed McCain.
There’s manipulation going on. I hope Newt can counter it.
Newt will win Florida & possibly Texas.
Many in Florida will support the former Speaker of the House from nearby Georgia.
Many Seniors in states like Florida and Arizona have struggled under Zero’s economy.
Seniors remember the successes Newt had as Speaker of the House. Newt appeals to both young and old and will come out on top in the South. Just like Reagan appealed to a variety of age groups, Newt’s ability to communicate how to return our economy around will be appealing.
What may also help Gingrich is that he too is from the south and, though a professor, can speak the language in a way that people understand. Romney is a stuttering boob who will depend on attack ads.
dont worry, ole greengrinch will stand tough and be the fighter we need to be the ABBB candidate...
at least until he decides to take his ball and go home, gets his feelings hurt and caves to the pressure, or get patriotic and calls monica to 'blow off' a little steam...
Very true. I'm from New York, but I live in the South, and one time I commented on the fact that everybody here seems to get married three times. The person I was talking to (an Evangelical) told me that people here have a "starter marriage," a "rebound marriage," and then finally one that works out.
Bizarre, but I guess that's how it is.
In any case, Gingrich's first marriage was to his high school teacher (something like 15 years older than he) who would now be in jail for this. He was a chubby, too-smart military brat, and it seems that nobody else was interested in him when he was 16.
He married her over his father's opposition, but he did the right thing.
My brother lives outside Charleston and he said that Haley’s honeymoon with SC is over and she’s a one-term
governor. The endorsement of the liberal Romney was the fial straw. The Haley endorsement will mean nothing for Romney. Gingrich was practically raised in Georgia and has strong ties to SC. He has an organization all over the state. Alot of well-connected contacts. Socially Newt is just as conservative as Santorum. SC voters know he’s Catholic now but for the majority of his life he was evangelical and they like him. Santorum is a Yankee and will not play well in the South, and I don’t care how conservative he is. And my brother said the debates killed any chance Perry had. Newt will clean up in SC. If he gets Rubio’s endorsement he’ll also win Florida going away. Rubio is a Tea Party favorite. No chance Rubio endorses the liberal Romney.
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