Posted on 12/21/2011 5:36:56 AM PST by TBBT
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa - Just two weeks before Iowa’s first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses there’s a new leader, but the race remains “remarkably fluid,” according to a new Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll likely Republican caucus-goers.
Texas Rep. Ron Paul has moved into first place – the fifth candidate to hold that spot since the mid-August Iowa GOP Straw Poll. The data collected between Dec. 8 and 18 suggest that unlike the previous frontrunners, Paul’s support is more solid.
Paul is the first choice of 27.5 percent of 333 likely caucus-goers among the 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents contacted by ISU. That’s up from 20.4 percent in an ISU/Gazette/KCRG poll in November. He’s followed closely by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich whose support increased from 4.8 percent to 25.3 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in at 17.5 percent, up from 16.3.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the only other candidate to poll in double digits at 11.2 percent – an increase from 7.9 percent a month earlier.
(Excerpt) Read more at kcrg.com ...
Paul is the first choice of 27.5 percent of 333 likely caucus-goers among the 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents contacted by ISU.
Representative?
His colleague, Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at Iowa State and associate professor of political science who assisted with the poll, says that suggests Paul “probably under-polls.”
“His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests,” Peterson says. “His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds.”
Paul is going to "under-poll" based on that? Wouldn't you expect just the opposite - that this is an indication that Paul is over-polling?
I'm still doubtful that the state of Iowa has gone that Bat Guano crazy and Paul will perform as well as these polls suggest.
Anybody here good at poll analysis?
Gosh I don’t like the top 4 at all. I think I am screwed this election. Come on Santorum and Bachmann. Conservatives HAVE to overcome the nightmare.
At least there is still a spark of sanity here. Romney’s millions in negative ads still has him down in 3rd.
The polls are ridiculous. Paul is nutso. The poll is just to confuse.
Go back and check Paul and Newt on the 8th and then again on the 18th.
i believe the big mo is going to Perry and believe the next recent poll will show this.
i don't believe the average Iowan is going to vote for Paul but a number of college kids who will never vote for a Republican will storm the Caucus in larger towns.
Even for folks who don’t like Ron Paul...aren’t you tickled he’s 10 points ahead of Mittens?
I would also bet Paul has almost all 200 of those Indy's.
Does anyone understand how the Iowa Caucus works? Can any registered voter just show up, like in a primary, or do the caucus-goers have to be selected beforehand?
America needs to fight wars to win or not fight them at all. Someone will rule the world, it just depends on who it will be. Europe? Asia? Islamists?
Reality is far from Uncle Ron on foreign policy. He nails domestic policy though, I will give him that.
I expect Rick Perry to start hitting Paul in the next 10 days on that very foreign policy. Merry Christmas.
You must be a Republican to vote but you can register up until the date I believe.
Same as he polled last election and walked away with his usual 10%.
Merry Christmas
Either as reported, they are mostly younguns who don't know better, or dyed-in-the-wool Libertarians who are blinded by their ideology.
SOMETHING SMELLS IN DES MOINES!
1st of all, most young people are not tending towards the Republican party, even for a "Pretend" RINO, like Paul.
Even if true, there are that many young people who vote.
Likewise, only about 2% call themselves Libertarians.
Last but not least, I can NOT imagine any "Real" Conservative, voting for this Truther, Anti-Israel, Islamic-Jihadist-supporting, Moonbat.
SO, WHAT GIVES????
Looks like America gives.
Same as he polled last election and walked away with his usual 10%.That's what I'm suspecting.
Why do we even HAVE Iowa? The state is like a Democrat precinct where vote fraud is sop.
Another point was that 51% of Paul voters said they would definitely vote for him.
This is fluid still. I think over the next 2 days we will see people picking and sticking with their guy or gal.
Ron Paul is the ONLY!!!!!! candidate who will actually LOWER federal spending.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will adhere to a strict interpretation of the U.S. Constitution.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will actually get rid of, totally eliminate, entire departments like the EPA, the Department of Education, etc.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will appoint Justices to the US Supreme Court that have the same perspective on the US Constitution as Thomas Jefferson.
The main criticism of Ron Paul is that Ron Paul’s foreign policy is the same foreign policy as that of our Founding Fathers Washington, Jefferson, Addams, Madison, etc. So be it.
I’m in Iowa and am beseiged by Paulista pop-ups and phone calls. The spot with the young lib (or libertarian) stoner wanting people to crossover and vote for Ron Paul in the caucuses tells me all I need to know about who is backing this guy.
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