Paul is the first choice of 27.5 percent of 333 likely caucus-goers among the 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents contacted by ISU.
Representative?
His colleague, Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at Iowa State and associate professor of political science who assisted with the poll, says that suggests Paul “probably under-polls.”
“His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests,” Peterson says. “His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds.”
Paul is going to "under-poll" based on that? Wouldn't you expect just the opposite - that this is an indication that Paul is over-polling?
I'm still doubtful that the state of Iowa has gone that Bat Guano crazy and Paul will perform as well as these polls suggest.
Anybody here good at poll analysis?
Gosh I don’t like the top 4 at all. I think I am screwed this election. Come on Santorum and Bachmann. Conservatives HAVE to overcome the nightmare.
At least there is still a spark of sanity here. Romney’s millions in negative ads still has him down in 3rd.
The polls are ridiculous. Paul is nutso. The poll is just to confuse.
Go back and check Paul and Newt on the 8th and then again on the 18th.
i believe the big mo is going to Perry and believe the next recent poll will show this.
i don't believe the average Iowan is going to vote for Paul but a number of college kids who will never vote for a Republican will storm the Caucus in larger towns.
Even for folks who don’t like Ron Paul...aren’t you tickled he’s 10 points ahead of Mittens?
I would also bet Paul has almost all 200 of those Indy's.
Does anyone understand how the Iowa Caucus works? Can any registered voter just show up, like in a primary, or do the caucus-goers have to be selected beforehand?
Same as he polled last election and walked away with his usual 10%.
Merry Christmas
Either as reported, they are mostly younguns who don't know better, or dyed-in-the-wool Libertarians who are blinded by their ideology.
SOMETHING SMELLS IN DES MOINES!
1st of all, most young people are not tending towards the Republican party, even for a "Pretend" RINO, like Paul.
Even if true, there are that many young people who vote.
Likewise, only about 2% call themselves Libertarians.
Last but not least, I can NOT imagine any "Real" Conservative, voting for this Truther, Anti-Israel, Islamic-Jihadist-supporting, Moonbat.
SO, WHAT GIVES????
Why do we even HAVE Iowa? The state is like a Democrat precinct where vote fraud is sop.
Another point was that 51% of Paul voters said they would definitely vote for him.
This is fluid still. I think over the next 2 days we will see people picking and sticking with their guy or gal.
Ron Paul is the ONLY!!!!!! candidate who will actually LOWER federal spending.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will adhere to a strict interpretation of the U.S. Constitution.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will actually get rid of, totally eliminate, entire departments like the EPA, the Department of Education, etc.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will appoint Justices to the US Supreme Court that have the same perspective on the US Constitution as Thomas Jefferson.
The main criticism of Ron Paul is that Ron Paul’s foreign policy is the same foreign policy as that of our Founding Fathers Washington, Jefferson, Addams, Madison, etc. So be it.
I’m in Iowa and am beseiged by Paulista pop-ups and phone calls. The spot with the young lib (or libertarian) stoner wanting people to crossover and vote for Ron Paul in the caucuses tells me all I need to know about who is backing this guy.
We never see any analysis as the WHY Ron Paul is making headway. Hint: it isn’t his quasi-isolationist foreign policy. If anything, his foreign policy stances LOSE votes (like mine, for instance). He’s actually talking about reducing the government back to it’s Constitutionally designed role/size, for real. No other candidate is doing that.
As long as Mitt keeps dropping, I don’t really care who’s on top at this stage of the game.
Paul is a deeply flawed candidate with racist baggage who hasn’t the SLIGHTEST clue on foreign policy at a time when foreing policy is just as CRITICAL as domestic economy.
I had 8 calls come to my landline last night in an hour. I haven't answered a poll call in a month.
Guess what; I would guess the Paultards are answering every poll call that comes.
They are fanatical and don't mind spending the time on a phone call.
Yeah, keep on keepin’ on, Iowa. Hope you’re enjoying your moment in the glow of national attention. It all stops after 3 Jan, then you return to your rightful place in irrelevant obscurity.