Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

How President Obama gets to 270
The Washington Post ^ | 14 Dec 2011 | Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake

Posted on 12/14/2011 3:47:21 PM PST by mandaladon

On Tuesday morning, the braintrust of President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign gathered a select handful of reporters to make a simple case: the incumbent has a number of different paths — five, to be exact — he can follow to win the 270 electoral votes necessary to secure a second term. Since we’ve spent lots and lots of time breaking down the electoral map — and making the case that Obama is stronger than his job approval ratings indicate — we thought it might be fun to look at each of the paths laid out by his team to see how likely each might be.

We do that below. One important point before we start: The Obama team used as its baseline for each of these five scenarios the 246 electoral votes that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D) won in his 2004 loss to President George W. Bush. That means that Obama could lose none of the states he and Kerry carried in 2004 and 2008 — including swing states like New Hampshire and Wisconsin — and have the numbers add up. The paths are ranked from most likely to least likely for Obama.

1. Florida path: If Obama wins the 29 electoral votes in Florida, he’s at 275 and a winner. Florida moved hard to Republicans in 2010 — the party elected Gov. Rick Scott and Sen. Marco Rubio — but there are signs that the Sunshine State electorate is trending back to the ideological middle. Scott is among the least popular governors in the country, which won’t help the eventual GOP presidential nominee, and Florida has a large Hispanic community that should vote overwhelmingly for Obama.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arizona; US: Colorado; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: New Mexico; US: North Carolina; US: Ohio; US: South Carolina; US: Virginia; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: arizona; colorado; elections; florida; iowa; nevada; newhampshire; newmexico; northcarolina; obama; ohio; southcarolina; virginia; wisconsin
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-39 next last
I think this is all wishful thinking. Reelecting Obama under the present conditions would be a major defeat for the country.
1 posted on 12/14/2011 3:47:24 PM PST by mandaladon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: mandaladon

Waspo pulling boners again, for fun.


2 posted on 12/14/2011 3:50:55 PM PST by boomop1 (term limits is the only way to save this country.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon

If Obama some how manages to get 270 I’m reaching for the 90 Proof! (Jim Beam Devils cut Bourbon) Then probably his the pepto and tylenol pretty hard the next mourning.....The thought is to awful to consider


3 posted on 12/14/2011 3:55:01 PM PST by jakerobins
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon

The only way Obama reaches 270 is for him and the Dems to do what they usually do..CHEAT..they already admitted to allowing phony names like Mickey Mouse and Hitler to sign the recall petition for Scott Walker, there once was a time when Dems never admitted to cheating, now they just right flat out and admit it


4 posted on 12/14/2011 3:57:14 PM PST by Sarah Barracuda
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon
How President Obama gets to 270

Same way he did last time...with lies, rhetoric, bullshit, and voter fraud.

5 posted on 12/14/2011 3:57:47 PM PST by GoldenPup
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: boomop1

Step one: light candle.

Step two: take small chunk of steel wool and push it into pipette.

Step three: place rock of crack cocaine into pipette.

Step four: push a second wad of steel wool into pipette so that rock does not fall out while you are smoking...

Obama is going to have to pull a lot of charm out of his a$$ to be competitive, ad he hasn’t show an ability to do that.


6 posted on 12/14/2011 3:57:58 PM PST by Wally_Kalbacken
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: jakerobins

There is only ONE way for Obamao to get to 270...

CHEAT!


7 posted on 12/14/2011 3:59:10 PM PST by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon

This is the type of dope fueled dreaming that I imagine these two leftist nitwits do after hours. All of these scenarios are a stretch at best and it totally discounts the fact that states like PA, which are sharply trending away from Obummer are needed for for him to win in these schemes. I think what WaPo just did here is tip their hand that they know that reelecting this stiff has become a long shot despite their best efforts to shield him.


8 posted on 12/14/2011 3:59:27 PM PST by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon

Unfortunately, FL is in play. Gov. Scott only beat a flaming pinko by 1% in the 2010 TEA landslide. Barry’s felon GOTV alone would put him over the top if it is that close in 2012.


9 posted on 12/14/2011 4:00:32 PM PST by lodi90
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: lodi90

Hussein 0ne NH last time.


10 posted on 12/14/2011 4:02:20 PM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon

The reelection of Obama would be conclusive proof that the country we grew up in is dead and gone.


11 posted on 12/14/2011 4:02:45 PM PST by Argus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sarah Barracuda

Judicial Watch has done it again. It has produced–following a Freedom of Information Act request filed with the United States Department of Justice (DOJ)–documents that suggest extensive coordination and communications between the DOJ Voting Section and former ACORN affiliate Project Vote.

Project Vote appears to be directing DOJ resources toward particular states; is having meetings with DOJ staff; and is even recommending lawyers to work in the Justice Department Voting Section that will oversee the 2012 presidential election.

Project Vote also appears to have played a role in the Justice Department’s lawsuit against Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal’s administration, which aims to force the state to increase voter registration in welfare agencies and drug treatment offices.

The documents also appear to show that Project Vote receives special access to, and meetings with, DOJ officials. So do other voter fraud-deniers, such as the NAACP Legal Defense Fund; Tova Wang at Demos; and the Brennan Center for Justice. I write about numerous similar instances in my book, Injustice: Exposing the Racial Agenda of the Obama Justice Department.

These activist groups have enjoyed access to the top political appointees at DOJ over voting–including Aaron McCree Lewis, in the Office of the Attorney General; Sam Hirsch, Deputy Associate Attorney General; and Deputy Assistant Attorney General in charge of voting issues, Matthew Colangelo.

Emails obtained by Judicial Watch also suggest that Project Vote was directing complaints to the persons at DOJ responsible for deploying election monitoring resources, urging them to devote resources to races around the country–particularly where Tea Party groups were active in efforts to combat voter fraud.


12 posted on 12/14/2011 4:02:45 PM PST by ronnie raygun (V)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon

Almost any third party will reelect 0bama.


13 posted on 12/14/2011 4:05:47 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT (The best is the enemy of the good!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tet68
That statement reminds me of men in black, where the bug told the guy his proposal was acceptable. LOL ,,,,Of course he will cheat.

However, do not use that term around Newtie, it causes him to go on point. Just like saying fetch to a bird dog.

14 posted on 12/14/2011 4:06:15 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: ronnie raygun

this is gonna lead to civil war

BTW...look at how the adults south of the border deal with voter ID...

.here’s how they deal with voter fraud issues south of the border....and ..its all you need to know about the treasonous, malignant American Left....

“...the Mexican Voter I.D. card has NINE security characteristics, including a fingerprint, a photograph, watermarks and holograms. What is more, in Mexico, the lists of electors that are distributed to political parties include the photo and the full name and address of the electors.”

http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/english/news-detail.php?id=609

We need to jack Holder outta there before all he#$ erupts over this crap.


15 posted on 12/14/2011 4:06:32 PM PST by mo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon
I see only 3 ways for Obamamamadingdong to get reelected...LIE.CHEAT.STEAL!!!
16 posted on 12/14/2011 4:13:52 PM PST by crazyhorse691 (Obama is just the symptom of what is destroying the U.S.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon

BS, gnat crap, horse crap...don’t believe the hype by the Left; listen to Rush, the unelectable one in trouble is Obama. Remain positive, pray and believe.


17 posted on 12/14/2011 4:23:43 PM PST by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mandaladon
correction about my state FL. Obama claimed he on but on the night of voting he lost by 53% to 47%. They then added early voting and obama won Since then the GA media has done an investigation and found over a 100,000 votes which came from GA and OH voters and who should not have voted in my state, some of them were tracked down and asked why they voted in GA and FL. The answer was "I did not know" some claimed they did not vote in GA until they were shown they did. Now add the snow birds who sue their vacation address here but vote in their state like MA or NY. Add the illegals and those voting more than once and there is no way he won this state BUT WAIT THERE IS MORE How did all the amendments go right like marriage etc , all of them but the same voters voted for him . NO WAY He did not win this state and now it comes out about IN
18 posted on 12/14/2011 4:33:32 PM PST by manc (Marriage is between one man and one woman.Trolls get a life, I HATE OUR BIAS LIBERAL MEDIA.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ronnie raygun

You’re a hero! Thanks for the always courageous stand!


19 posted on 12/14/2011 4:34:45 PM PST by tefis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: crazyhorse691

Folks, stop the negativity ! In North Carolina, we know that is going to very close and we are slowly putting the infrastructure that we need ! It is going to be won at the precinct level ! Call your local county GOP & offer your help ! If possible register some new voters ! Brainwash your kids(a common complaint that, my kid is going to a liberal school and he/she is a big liberal)! Write to the editors, participate in local GOP meetings & drag a new friend to those meetings.

Let us not worry about the Republican candidate !People will unite at the end. This is a life time opportunity and we can defeat Obama! Blacks with 15% employment will not be running with enthusiasm of 2008 ! College kids don’t have a job and they are scared ! There will be no enthusiasm !


20 posted on 12/14/2011 4:36:05 PM PST by Ranjit
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-39 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson