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PD Composite: Romney 26%, Cain 26%, Gingrich 21%
PoliticalDerby.com ^ | 11/21/2011 | Scott A. Robinson

Posted on 11/22/2011 7:19:56 AM PST by Notwithstanding

The Political Derby Composite Poll is a tool that takes the most recent major polls and weights their results based on poll age, sample type, and margin of error each day using a proprietary formula. Unlike other poll compilations, this is not a simple average. The polls that make up the PD Composite are well-known reputable national polls who sample “likely primary voters” and “registered voters”, as opposed to only “adults, including, but not limited to: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Pew Research, Quinnipiac University, and Rasmussen Reports... The PD Composite will be updated in a regular post that will run at least weekly, or more often if new polling data changes results significantly.

(Excerpt) Read more at politicalderby.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2010; 2012; elections; gingrich; pd; pdcomposite; politicalderby; poll; polls; romney
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To: ZULU

When did you notice?


41 posted on 11/22/2011 10:30:58 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Jeff Head

NE aren’t really conservative as much as libertarian and a weird mix at that. Just when you think you’ve figured them out they zig when they should have zagged.


42 posted on 11/22/2011 10:32:21 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Pride in the USA

ditto.


43 posted on 11/22/2011 10:35:56 AM PST by ken21
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To: 1010RD

Well, about 1:17 last night I couldn’t sleep and it came to me as I was dozing off.

If WE can get it, why can’t they?

Is it all about “me” and not America? And maybe if it IS, its why we are heading to hell in a handbasket as a nation.


44 posted on 11/22/2011 10:41:10 AM PST by ZULU (Anybody but Romney or Huntsman)
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To: Pride in the USA; Stillwaters
Thanks for the ping. Rumors of the demise of the Cain campaign are greatly exaggerated.

This particular poll averaging reflects a few things that have been bothering me. Cain never really "surged" in the polls, more like he had a steady 5-week climb between Sept 29 and Nov 3. Yet all the reporting from both sides (GOP establishment as reflected by Fox News, and liberal spin as reflected by everyone else) reported that Cain was the "flavor of the week", and did their best to either ignore or completely dismiss his poll position.

Gingrich has had a 2-week surge, entirely coinciding with Herman Cain's media-driven decline. Gingrich's rise in the polls is being reported as a "surge", he's rarely called the "flavor of the week", and his rising poll position is the lead story from both sides. The media is breathlessly anointing Gingrich as the inevitable "anti-Romney." Why? Doesn't conventional wisdom hold that the "anti-Romney" vote represents the conservative base? Of the potential anti-Romney candidates - Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich - who is the least conservative one in the room? (Rhetorical question)

Setting aside Gingrich's not-inconsiderable personal baggage, the man is no conservative. Yet, all the media (both sides) appends that adjective to their reporting of "conservative Newt Gingrich" and the amazing "surge" of the smartest guy in the room. He will also be the easiest candidate for the GOP Establishiment and the MSM to utterly destroy when it's time to protect their Romney nominee. Until then, both sides will conspire to keep Gingrich propped up to siphon off the conservative vote.

The fabricated bimbo eruption didn't bury Herman Cain's campaign as effectively as it was hoped. When that failed, the powers that be trotted out the well-oiled, tried and true, Palinization meme that Herman Cain is ignorant. That line of attack has been more effective, at least so far. It remains to be seen if Mr. Cain's campaign can recover from the forces that have combined to destroy him. There can be no mistaking the abject terror both sides have a possible Cain challenge to Romney.

Cain remains "my guy"

45 posted on 11/22/2011 10:54:55 AM PST by lonevoice (Klepto Baracka Marxo, impeach we much. We will much about that be committed.)
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To: ZULU

Because our elections are managed for us. It seems that Reagan was an accidental President.


46 posted on 11/22/2011 11:55:49 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Jeff Head

” Most of Bachman and Santorum’s 9-10% would go to Cain IMHO. Huntsman’s 2% would probably go to Romney. “ <<<<

You are absolutely correct at this moment in time. The heat for the Romney cram down has not even begun but starting their engines. All candidates will be history after South Carolina, IF the mission is to actually go after Obama. The Republican Party will otherwise self destruct if we are subjected to the continuing and lengthy free for all we have now with all these candidates knifing each other, particularly going on with those who are still polling in mid single digits.


47 posted on 11/22/2011 12:35:17 PM PST by RitaOK (Rasmussen- the polling standard for accuracy.)
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To: ZULU

” If the GOP can’t defeat Obama and take control of Congress, that political party has forfeited its right to exist. It needs to go. “ <<<<

Boy that’s the truth. The thinkers were hoping for the nominee to be known as early as possible, in order to begin the battle against Obama, who is going to wreck the nation to try and win. Our lowest polling candidates are still waging a pretty nasty war against each other, but not Romney nor Obama.


48 posted on 11/22/2011 12:40:51 PM PST by RitaOK (Rasmussen- the polling standard for accuracy.)
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To: ken21

In pure intelligence terms, as measured by raw IQ, Jimmuh Carter was most likely quite a bit above Ronaldus Magnus.

It does not mean you must be a dumbo to be a good president. What it means is that high IQ does not equal high results.

And as far as pure intelligence is concerned what is the proverbial most skilled profession? That is right, it is rocket scientist. And who is the only one to claim that honor?


49 posted on 11/22/2011 12:42:26 PM PST by federal__reserve (What matters in 2012 is jobs, jobs, jobs! Jobs kill unemployment, foreclosures & deficits)
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To: Notwithstanding
I have read no posts on the thread just yet, but your graph is very interesting. Follow the Perry and Cain lines and watch them follow an identical reverse trajectory. Perry dips and Cain rises at an identical rate. Then skip over to where Cain starts to dip and watch Gingrich make an identical rise.

You essentially have the same group of people supporting Perry early, moving to Cain, moving away from Cain, and moving to Gingrich.

These people are going to cost us the election.

my .02

50 posted on 11/22/2011 1:28:28 PM PST by mikhailovich
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To: 1010RD
Reagan had well thought out positions that took him decades to refine. His gut could lead him because he’d studied so hard and thought so deeply. The myth that Reagan was a dolt actually benefited him against his enemies.

Excellent points, and quite true about Reagan. Cain will sink or swim in the next 30 days.

51 posted on 11/22/2011 2:28:40 PM PST by montag813
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To: Buckeye Battle Cry; Raebie

I wouldn’t worry. Things will sort themselves out come January and you’ll see some folks drop.


52 posted on 11/22/2011 3:16:19 PM PST by af_vet_rr
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To: montag813
Doesn’t look like Mr. Cain has lost much at all, given the torrent of negative reports and attention over the past 3 weeks. Remarkable. May indicate deep dissatisfaction with Romney and Gingrich.

What surprises me is that where Cain has dropped, it appears Gingrich has picked up that support, rather than it going back to Perry. Some of the Cain supporters clearly came from Perry when he started his descent, but they don't seem interested in going back to Perry.

It's also amazing how consistent Romney is. Really does leave me to believe he doesn't have a chance. If he hasn't been able to budge his numbers by now, he's not going to be able to. Same folks that supported him in 2008 are not going to be able to get him anywhere in 2012.
53 posted on 11/22/2011 3:16:23 PM PST by af_vet_rr
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To: mikhailovich
You essentially have the same group of people supporting Perry early, moving to Cain, moving away from Cain, and moving to Gingrich.

These people are going to cost us the election.


If you are unhappy with them moving around and believe they should only stick to one candidate, who should that candidate be? It's the primaries, that's what happens - people move around.
54 posted on 11/22/2011 3:18:16 PM PST by af_vet_rr
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To: lonevoice

Good post!


55 posted on 11/22/2011 3:22:57 PM PST by Pride in the USA
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To: Notwithstanding

Glad to see a positive Cain thread.
Just contributed another $9.99 to his campaign.
Every time I hear him speak or read something positive about him, I send along another 999.
We need a business minded outsider to clean house.
Newt is saying all the right things now but he is a deep insider and I do not trust him to go against the Washington ways.

Go Herman!!!

RS


56 posted on 11/22/2011 6:52:11 PM PST by RS_Rider (I hate Illinois Nazis)
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To: Pride in the USA
:-)
57 posted on 11/22/2011 11:23:26 PM PST by lonevoice (Klepto Baracka Marxo, impeach we much. We will much about that be committed.)
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To: Notwithstanding; All

Thanx for the graph - very interesting.

FYI, 4 years ago yesterday Rudy and Fred Thompson were the front runners, so the race is still wide open.


58 posted on 11/23/2011 7:45:17 AM PST by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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