Posted on 11/22/2011 7:19:56 AM PST by Notwithstanding
The Political Derby Composite Poll is a tool that takes the most recent major polls and weights their results based on poll age, sample type, and margin of error each day using a proprietary formula. Unlike other poll compilations, this is not a simple average. The polls that make up the PD Composite are well-known reputable national polls who sample “likely primary voters” and “registered voters”, as opposed to only “adults, including, but not limited to: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Pew Research, Quinnipiac University, and Rasmussen Reports... The PD Composite will be updated in a regular post that will run at least weekly, or more often if new polling data changes results significantly.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalderby.com ...
When did you notice?
NE aren’t really conservative as much as libertarian and a weird mix at that. Just when you think you’ve figured them out they zig when they should have zagged.
ditto.
Well, about 1:17 last night I couldn’t sleep and it came to me as I was dozing off.
If WE can get it, why can’t they?
Is it all about “me” and not America? And maybe if it IS, its why we are heading to hell in a handbasket as a nation.
This particular poll averaging reflects a few things that have been bothering me. Cain never really "surged" in the polls, more like he had a steady 5-week climb between Sept 29 and Nov 3. Yet all the reporting from both sides (GOP establishment as reflected by Fox News, and liberal spin as reflected by everyone else) reported that Cain was the "flavor of the week", and did their best to either ignore or completely dismiss his poll position.
Gingrich has had a 2-week surge, entirely coinciding with Herman Cain's media-driven decline. Gingrich's rise in the polls is being reported as a "surge", he's rarely called the "flavor of the week", and his rising poll position is the lead story from both sides. The media is breathlessly anointing Gingrich as the inevitable "anti-Romney." Why? Doesn't conventional wisdom hold that the "anti-Romney" vote represents the conservative base? Of the potential anti-Romney candidates - Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich - who is the least conservative one in the room? (Rhetorical question)
Setting aside Gingrich's not-inconsiderable personal baggage, the man is no conservative. Yet, all the media (both sides) appends that adjective to their reporting of "conservative Newt Gingrich" and the amazing "surge" of the smartest guy in the room. He will also be the easiest candidate for the GOP Establishiment and the MSM to utterly destroy when it's time to protect their Romney nominee. Until then, both sides will conspire to keep Gingrich propped up to siphon off the conservative vote.
The fabricated bimbo eruption didn't bury Herman Cain's campaign as effectively as it was hoped. When that failed, the powers that be trotted out the well-oiled, tried and true, Palinization meme that Herman Cain is ignorant. That line of attack has been more effective, at least so far. It remains to be seen if Mr. Cain's campaign can recover from the forces that have combined to destroy him. There can be no mistaking the abject terror both sides have a possible Cain challenge to Romney.
Cain remains "my guy"
Because our elections are managed for us. It seems that Reagan was an accidental President.
” Most of Bachman and Santorum’s 9-10% would go to Cain IMHO. Huntsman’s 2% would probably go to Romney. “ <<<<
You are absolutely correct at this moment in time. The heat for the Romney cram down has not even begun but starting their engines. All candidates will be history after South Carolina, IF the mission is to actually go after Obama. The Republican Party will otherwise self destruct if we are subjected to the continuing and lengthy free for all we have now with all these candidates knifing each other, particularly going on with those who are still polling in mid single digits.
” If the GOP can’t defeat Obama and take control of Congress, that political party has forfeited its right to exist. It needs to go. “ <<<<
Boy that’s the truth. The thinkers were hoping for the nominee to be known as early as possible, in order to begin the battle against Obama, who is going to wreck the nation to try and win. Our lowest polling candidates are still waging a pretty nasty war against each other, but not Romney nor Obama.
In pure intelligence terms, as measured by raw IQ, Jimmuh Carter was most likely quite a bit above Ronaldus Magnus.
It does not mean you must be a dumbo to be a good president. What it means is that high IQ does not equal high results.
And as far as pure intelligence is concerned what is the proverbial most skilled profession? That is right, it is rocket scientist. And who is the only one to claim that honor?
You essentially have the same group of people supporting Perry early, moving to Cain, moving away from Cain, and moving to Gingrich.
These people are going to cost us the election.
my .02
Excellent points, and quite true about Reagan. Cain will sink or swim in the next 30 days.
I wouldn’t worry. Things will sort themselves out come January and you’ll see some folks drop.
Good post!
Glad to see a positive Cain thread.
Just contributed another $9.99 to his campaign.
Every time I hear him speak or read something positive about him, I send along another 999.
We need a business minded outsider to clean house.
Newt is saying all the right things now but he is a deep insider and I do not trust him to go against the Washington ways.
Go Herman!!!
RS
Thanx for the graph - very interesting.
FYI, 4 years ago yesterday Rudy and Fred Thompson were the front runners, so the race is still wide open.
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