Vote Today in New York 9th Congressional for Bob Turner (R) POLLS OPEN 6 AM and CLOSE 9 PM

9th Congressional District, 23rd Assembly District, 27th Assembly District, 54th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 116th Assembly District, 144th Assembly District.

Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,055 likely voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District. The survey was conducted September 1st, 2011 and has a margin of error of 2.16%.

The survey finds Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by 4 points (Turner 44.6%/Weprin 40.4%/Hoeppner 3.2%/undecided 11.8%). Ballot intensity benefits Turner with 35.8% of the respondents definitely voting for Turner while only 28.3% of respondents definitely voting for Weprin.

Both candidates have comparable name recognition (Turner 89% name recognition/Weprin 88% name recognition). However, Turner’s image is 37% favorable to 23.8% unfavorable, while Weprin’s image is 29.8% favorable to 34.5% unfavorable.

Turner leads Weprin despite the fact that Democrats have almost a 5 point lead on the generic ballot. However, President Obama’s job approval suffers (36% approve/52% disapprove/13% no opinion).

This was on Argo Journal has Turner with 6 pt. lead. http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2011/09/poll-watch-ppp-d-new-york-9th.html

•Bob Turner (R) 47% •David Weprin (D) 41% •Christopher Hoeppner (S) 4% •Undecided 7%

•David Weprin (D) 58% •Bob Turner (R) 29% •Christopher Hoeppner (S) 4% •Undecided 9% Among Republicans

•Bob Turner (R) 83% •David Weprin (D) 10% •Christopher Hoeppner (S) 4% •Undecided 2% Among Independents

•Bob Turner (R) 58% •David Weprin (D) 26% •Christopher Hoeppner (S) 7% •Undecided 10% Among Jewish Voters

•Bob Turner (R) 56% •David Weprin (D) 39% •Christopher Hoeppner (S) 2% •Undecided 4% Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

•Bob Turner 45% / 30% {+15%} •David Weprin 39% / 36% {+3%} •Mitt Romney 33% / 33% {0%} •Rick Perry 26% / 35% {-9%} •Anthony Weiner 29% / 53% {-24%} Among Jewish Voters

•Bob Turner 49% / 30% {+19%} •David Weprin 40% / 36% {+4%} •Mitt Romney 38% / 35% {+3%} •Rick Perry 31% / 39% {-8%} •Anthony Weiner 35% / 50% {-15%} Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance?

•Approve 26% •Disapprove 62% Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's leadership on Israel?

•Approve 22% •Disapprove 68% How important was the issue of Israel in deciding who to vote for Congress: very important, somewhat important, or not all that important?

•Very important 37% •Somewhat important 32% •Not all that important 29% Among Jewish Voters

•Very important 58% •Somewhat important 30% •Not all that important 11% 2012 Presidential Election

•Mitt Romney 46% •Barack Obama 42%•Barack Obama 44% •Rick Perry 43% Among Jewish Voters

•Mitt Romney 52% •Barack Obama 38% •Rick Perry 47% •Barack Obama 43% Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

•Legal 45% •Illegal 43% How important was the issue of same-sex marriage in deciding who to vote for Congress: very important, somewhat important, or not all that important?

•Very important 29% •Somewhat important 26% •Not all that important 44% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Republicans are doing?

•Approve 31% •Disapprove 50% Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction?

•Congressional Republicans 51% •Barack Obama 39% Would you rather that Democrats or Republicans had control of the U.S. House?

•Republicans 50% •Democrats 42% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s job performance?

•Approve 59% •Disapprove 16% Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance?

•Approve 35% •Disapprove 28% Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Chuck Schumer’s job performance?

•Approve 51% •Disapprove 35% Do you approve or disapprove of Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job performance?

•Approve 44% •Disapprove 43% Survey of 664 likely voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District was conducted September 8-11, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 59% Democrat; 25% Republican; 15% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% Moderate; 22% Somewhat conservative; 21% Somewhat liberal; 14% Very liberal; 13% Very conservative. Religion: 36% Jewish; 31% Catholic; 10% Other Christian; 9% Another religion; 8% None.

>> •Bob Turner (R) 58% •David Weprin (D) 26% •Christopher Hoeppner (S) 7% •Undecided 10% Among Jewish Voters <<

THIS one is suprising me. The poll shows the orthodox Jewish Weprin losing to Roman Catholic Turner by a LANDSLIDE among "Jewish voters" (not even Othodox Jews, but Jews in general!) Even if ALL the "undecided" went to Weprin, this poll shows Turner beating Weprin by a 2-to-1 margin in the Jewish community. Even better, Hoepper really appears to be sucking a great deal of hardcore liberal Dem votes from Weprin. I doubt this poll is accurate, but if it remotely true it looks like a massacre.

>> Religion: 36% Jewish; 31% Catholic; 10% Other Christian; 9% Another religion; 8% None. <<

Here's the data I was finally looking for on the religious demographics of the district. Of course, it's only basing the numbers around which people responded to the survey, and it's not breaking down Jews by denomination. But these numbers suggest Jews outnumber Catholics in the district. If you combine all Christians, then they're the biggest plurality by a slim 41% Christian, 36% Jewish margin - but they still outnumber the largest Christian denomination (Catholics). If we presume about 40% of the Jews are Orthodox Jews, then we're looking at 15%-16% of the voting population being Orthodox Jews? Interesting. I wonder what the numbers are for Turner/Weprin/Hoeppner are pulling among Catholic voters?

I still find the data coming of NY-9 to be fasinating and like to anaylze it. This is one of the few districts where religion probably played a much bigger factor than race, ethnic background, income, education, etc. This article has the breakdown on how religious groups voted in the special election. Here are the numbers:

Turner won Orthodox Jews 91% - 9%
Turner won Catholics by 72% - 28%
Turner won among non-Catholic Christians 53% - 47%
Weprin won among non-Orthodox Jews 69% - 29%

The first stat with the Orthodox Jews is amazing to me. I agree it's unprecedented in American politics, and would be similar to blacks in Harlem voting for McCain. Orthodox Jews have always been the most politically “conservative” of the three major Jewish denominations but by no means have ever been overwhemingly Republican like say, Mormons. In fact, they're probably best described as the “least liberal” of the three main types of Jews. Also, we have to remember Weprin himself IS an Orthodox Jew. That doesn't seem to have helped him one bit. The pre-election polls showing an orthodox Jewish landslide weren't overly optimistic, they were correct.

The Catholic vote is impressive too. Yes, Bob Turner himself IS Catholic but this ain't the JFK era where Catholics show up and blindly vote for whoever is Catholic because they've never been in power before. (just ask John Kerry how much being Catholic helped him with Catholic voters) Being a Catholic politician in NYC is hardly news. Catholics are swing voters nationwide, from what read they're just about 50-50% on the GOP/Dem spectrum in modern America. Turner obviously was far more popular with Catholics that Weprin.

Then we have the “other Christians”. Since it's NYC, I'm guessing this category is almost entirely made up of Protestants. (even nationally, Orthodox Christians are a tiny percentage of the population), or they'd be “nondenominational Christians” who refuse to identify as protestant for some reason. Protestants seemed about equally divided in this election, Turner wins by a slim margin but that's probably because the district as a whole voted for him so undecided protestants went with the perceived “winner” at the last second. You can't argue the close divide is a racial split, as the district is only 4% black. Probably a great deal of white protestants favored the RAT.

Then we have... non-Orthodox Jews. Unlike the “non-Catholic Christians” behind shorthand for protestants, this could probably be all sorts of Jewish voters — Conservative (not politically conservative, the denomination is called Conservative) Jews, Reform Jews, Reconstructionist Jews (have no idea what that is and it's probably not that common, but it seems to be a distinct denomination), nondenominational, and of course secular Jews who come from a Jewish family and heritage but don't practice the faith (betsa the last group voted overwhemingly for Weprin). Overall, any Jew that wasn't Orthodox voted the way that Jewish voters usually vote in America — heavily for Democrats. Not at the 80% level Obama got, but 70% is certainly a huge advantage for the RATs. And I must remind freepers, Orthodox Jews may make up a big percentage (40%?) of NY-9 Jews, but nationally they're only 10% of Jewish voters. So if you're expecting a huge “Jewish” swing nationally to the GOP, don't get your hopes up.

It's interesting how a bunch of freepers claim Catholic voters are more “liberal” than Protestants and like to point out that heavily Catholic states are RAT, but in this case the Catholics heavily voted for the conservative Republican where nearly half of the white protestants supported the RAT.

Some food for thought: People within a religion can tell the difference between themselves and another denomination of their faith almost instantly, but outsiders rarely can. For example, I visited an jewish synagogue a few months ago and had no idea where it was Conservative, Othorodox, or Reform until I asked, but I told a Jewish friend about the trip and she recognized as Reform Jews right away (because wearing Yarmulkes during the Shabat service was optional). Whereas I would immediately be able to tell whether I was in a Catholic Church or a southern baptist one, but a Muslim who was learning about Christianity had no clue that service he observed near me was a Pentecostal protestant service and not a Catholic one. Maybe there are some big cultural divides between Orthodox and Reform/Conservative Jews that escapes me.

I do think those “wedge” social issues like abortion and gay marriage played a big part in this race, motivating Catholics and Orthodox Jews to show up for a special election and vote for Turner because he shared their views. The liberal media and even some freepers have this talking point about how “social conservatives” outside the bible belt are “unelectable” and scare away nice suburban moderate mom in droves. Of course, if that was true you'd never seen urban RATs like State Senator Ruben Diaz in NYC be so outspoken AGAINST gay marriage or Congressman Dan Lipinski (who represents a Chicago based district), rally against Obamacare because it funds abortion. The liberal media and the freepers who tout RINOs can't explain why these urban RATs would push for such “losing” issues, so they simply ignore it.

Whereas I've noticed that even in areas that are otherwise completely socialist, you'll find alot of voters who are pro-life and pro-traditional marriage.

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