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Hurricane Irene [Now at Cat 3]
NHC/NOAA ^ | 20 August 2011 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 08/20/2011 4:22:03 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Irene has developed from Invest 97 in the Western Atlantic Ocean, east of the Leeward Islands.

Satellite Images

Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

Sea Surface Temps

Buoy Data:


Caribbean Sea
Florida

Stormpulse


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneirene; irene; tropical
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To: alancarp
Even so... a "miss" is a relative term given the size of this critter.

The nature of the track is everything here. If the eye goes west of the Outer Banks, then the Outer Banks are in the worst sector of the storm and getting all of the storm surge.

Likewise for Long Island - a nightmare scenario would be to have the eye landfalling near NYC.

421 posted on 08/25/2011 4:59:35 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: alancarp
Outer Banks may be under the gun during the day Saturday.

From watching the updates from last night and this AM, your point cannot be emphasized enough. And no, I wouldn't say that this is alarmist at this point. Folks really need to start paying serious attention.

Anyone East of the line running from Havelock through Elizabeth City may end up being on the East side of this monster. Obviously nothing is certain this morning, but the time has come to pay serious attention and plan accordingly (that includes folks along the Atlantic coast north of NC as well).

422 posted on 08/25/2011 4:59:54 AM PDT by zzeeman ("We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.")
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To: zzeeman
NHC HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A, 800 AM EDT Aug 25 2011

Of note:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

423 posted on 08/25/2011 5:13:28 AM PDT by zzeeman ("We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.")
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To: alancarp; dirtboy
A couple of interesting radar loops courtesy Florida's overfunded SFWMD. These are very large radar loops:

FL radar w/ Irene forecast track overlay. (Note the small westward track change during the loop)

S. FL radar/satellite overlay

424 posted on 08/25/2011 5:14:01 AM PDT by NautiNurse (TSA Tit for Tat--Yukari Mihamae--thank you!)
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To: zzeeman
See post #409 from 0608 hours ET.
425 posted on 08/25/2011 5:16:54 AM PDT by NautiNurse (TSA Tit for Tat--Yukari Mihamae--thank you!)
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To: NautiNurse

The up to date (0800 EDT) info is in the link, just highlighted (re-iterated) the watch info in the text.


426 posted on 08/25/2011 5:20:36 AM PDT by zzeeman ("We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.")
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To: Frank_2001

Yeah its huge. I will be in miami today and expect some stiff winds probably some showers.


427 posted on 08/25/2011 5:21:27 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: NautiNurse

They could easily be in or near the eye wall. Not a good place to be with huge 20-30 foot waves crashing all around them.


428 posted on 08/25/2011 5:22:49 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: dirtboy

Yeah that’s always the big question and hard to track within certain parameters.


429 posted on 08/25/2011 5:23:46 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: NautiNurse

Pretty funny name for a hurricane.


430 posted on 08/25/2011 5:25:52 AM PDT by aruanan
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To: nc28205

People are so nice and polite up there they don’t even think to tell them they should leave the island.Sad really.


431 posted on 08/25/2011 5:28:16 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: zzeeman

When you re-iterate info noted in previous advisories, could you omit ALL CAPS? I could read ALL CAPS back in the 20th century, but no longer. Too many years of posting hurricane threads, I suppose. Thanks.


432 posted on 08/25/2011 5:29:06 AM PDT by NautiNurse (TSA Tit for Tat--Yukari Mihamae--thank you!)
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To: zzeeman

I’ll throw in another geogrpahical concern: New Bern, NC.

Even though that city lies somewhat inland, they lie at the top of a narrowing channel of water that would get pushed back into the city - flooding it significantly - if the eye pushes onshore anywhere towards them.

In other words, New Bern is not a safe evacuation point for those along the coastline. I would head to at least Kinston - maybe Elizabethtown or Lumberton. And plan on being there for a few days.


433 posted on 08/25/2011 5:29:17 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: rodguy911
I will be in miami today

Not traveling via boat, I presume ;o)

434 posted on 08/25/2011 5:31:14 AM PDT by NautiNurse (TSA Tit for Tat--Yukari Mihamae--thank you!)
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To: NautiNurse

LOL. Will do, NOAA still insists on their ALL CAPS mode for some reason!


435 posted on 08/25/2011 5:31:31 AM PDT by zzeeman ("We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.")
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To: NautiNurse

Storm is due west of us right now and the most we have had was 27 knot gusts.
Miami will get a little bit more its still approaching due West of them and they already wave 31 knots gusts at Fowey Light.


436 posted on 08/25/2011 5:33:54 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: NautiNurse

LOL!! No way. Gotta do a little biz and take advantage of turkey day at the Cracker Barrel!!I love turkey!


437 posted on 08/25/2011 5:36:23 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: zzeeman
NOAA still insists on their ALL CAPS mode for some reason!

I chatted with them about that several years ago. No plans to change back then. It's their shtick. fyi--there are links at the top of this thread for Advisories and Discussions. They are in lower case, and published simultaneously with the NHC updates. Lots of other useful info at the top of the thread too.

438 posted on 08/25/2011 5:38:01 AM PDT by NautiNurse (TSA Tit for Tat--Yukari Mihamae--thank you!)
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To: alancarp

Good advice. That other inlet a bit north that narrows into Washington is another potential danger zone, it doesn’t have that Southward bend in it. As you, the track will determine all.


439 posted on 08/25/2011 5:38:23 AM PDT by zzeeman ("We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.")
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To: rodguy911

Me too! Turkey over chicken any day. Lamb over beef. Although turkey has serious competition when duck is on the menu.


440 posted on 08/25/2011 5:42:30 AM PDT by NautiNurse (TSA Tit for Tat--Yukari Mihamae--thank you!)
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