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Posted on 08/20/2011 4:22:03 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Irene has developed from Invest 97 in the Western Atlantic Ocean, east of the Leeward Islands.
Buoy Data:
Caribbean Sea
Florida
The nature of the track is everything here. If the eye goes west of the Outer Banks, then the Outer Banks are in the worst sector of the storm and getting all of the storm surge.
Likewise for Long Island - a nightmare scenario would be to have the eye landfalling near NYC.
From watching the updates from last night and this AM, your point cannot be emphasized enough. And no, I wouldn't say that this is alarmist at this point. Folks really need to start paying serious attention.
Anyone East of the line running from Havelock through Elizabeth City may end up being on the East side of this monster. Obviously nothing is certain this morning, but the time has come to pay serious attention and plan accordingly (that includes folks along the Atlantic coast north of NC as well).
Of note:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
FL radar w/ Irene forecast track overlay. (Note the small westward track change during the loop)
The up to date (0800 EDT) info is in the link, just highlighted (re-iterated) the watch info in the text.
Yeah its huge. I will be in miami today and expect some stiff winds probably some showers.
They could easily be in or near the eye wall. Not a good place to be with huge 20-30 foot waves crashing all around them.
Yeah that’s always the big question and hard to track within certain parameters.
Pretty funny name for a hurricane.
People are so nice and polite up there they don’t even think to tell them they should leave the island.Sad really.
When you re-iterate info noted in previous advisories, could you omit ALL CAPS? I could read ALL CAPS back in the 20th century, but no longer. Too many years of posting hurricane threads, I suppose. Thanks.
I’ll throw in another geogrpahical concern: New Bern, NC.
Even though that city lies somewhat inland, they lie at the top of a narrowing channel of water that would get pushed back into the city - flooding it significantly - if the eye pushes onshore anywhere towards them.
In other words, New Bern is not a safe evacuation point for those along the coastline. I would head to at least Kinston - maybe Elizabethtown or Lumberton. And plan on being there for a few days.
Not traveling via boat, I presume ;o)
LOL. Will do, NOAA still insists on their ALL CAPS mode for some reason!
Storm is due west of us right now and the most we have had was 27 knot gusts.
Miami will get a little bit more its still approaching due West of them and they already wave 31 knots gusts at Fowey Light.
LOL!! No way. Gotta do a little biz and take advantage of turkey day at the Cracker Barrel!!I love turkey!
I chatted with them about that several years ago. No plans to change back then. It's their shtick. fyi--there are links at the top of this thread for Advisories and Discussions. They are in lower case, and published simultaneously with the NHC updates. Lots of other useful info at the top of the thread too.
Good advice. That other inlet a bit north that narrows into Washington is another potential danger zone, it doesn’t have that Southward bend in it. As you, the track will determine all.
Me too! Turkey over chicken any day. Lamb over beef. Although turkey has serious competition when duck is on the menu.
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