Posted on 08/15/2011 6:49:31 AM PDT by Hojczyk
The Carter-Obama comparison is as cliché as it is disconcerting (for Democrats). Carter’s undoing can be cast as rare. Lyndon Johnson would surely have lost in 1968. But he did not run. Carter was the first Democratic president defeated since . . . 1888.
Every presidential campaign is a rerun of the past. Just as every re-election campaign is a referendum on the present. In 1888, the Republicans’ previous nominee, James Blaine, aided the current GOP nominee, Benjamin Harrison. Blaine hit hard: “The Democratic Party in power is a standing menace to the prosperity of the country.”
Today’s messages are distilled for a bumper sticker world. Mitt Romney’s motto: “Obama isn’t working.” So the playbook instructs. Bad times. Keep the heat on the incumbent. Thumbs up or down. Never mind me. He isn’t working. “It is time to get America working again,” said the newcomer to the 2012 race, Rick Perry, in his announcement Saturday. So we recall Ronald Reagan’s knockdown question. “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Standard & Poor’s first downgrade of U.S. debt begs that political attack. It’s like the 39 percent mark. The fact alone is small. What it evokes is not.
No one number predicts presidential prospects. But if you must pick one, pick the presidential approval rating. There is a range where the floor gives out. There have been 11 campaigns since the Second World War. Only W won with an approval below 50 percent. Yet Gerald Ford lost in the same range. There's no magic number. But Obama must likely be in, at least, the high 40s to win term two.
This White House has long ached for its political environment to improve. But the Gallup threshold also reminds us that, for Obama, it could still get worse.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Thanks Obama for dragging the economy down with your insane Maoist ideology.
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It will be interesting to see how far down he goes. He’s got a base of about 30% from the hard core Dem Communists who will vote for him no matter what. Then you have another 10% to 15% of low information, brain dead “independents” who like the idea of a black president and don’t want to vote against him for fear of being racist. That is what is keeping him from dropping down where he belongs—into the low 30s.
Because of the hardcore leftist and brain dead idiots you cited, I think his floor is only about 35%. But it is possible he could get there. I have a number of leftist friends and they all agree that Obama is in deep trouble. Not an admission that they willingly give out.
Obama’s numbers have previously bottomed out at 40%. This was statistical bouncing around the low 40s. To drop three points in a day, however, indicates a drop of several points in one day. Just a statistical bump? There’s a reason Gallup uses three-day tracking to prevent statistical bumps from creating dramatic swings which are really no less than statistical bumps. If it is just a bump, his ratings will stay slightly depressed for two more days, and then pop up a couple points once the bump is no longer used in the three-day tracking.
If it NOT just a bump, however, his approval rating will drop still farther today.
Agreed.
However, I’ fairly certain that his low approval rating is comprised of a goodly portion of his 30% base who are disappointed that he has failed to deliver on promises near and dear to progressive the mind - end the war, gitmo, tax the rich, prosecute Cheny, Rummy, & GW for war crimes, etc.
The question is, will they be fed up enough to stay home on election day?
Where's my free helfcare at?
I like it. The Democrat party in power is a standing menace.
True then. True today.
(and I've even had my coffee!)
Most likely than not, she will “stay home” en masse come next November.
Also: GW Bush’s “re-election below 50%” is misleading. Gallup was doing weekly reports at the time: He was at 51% on Oct. 22, 48% on Oct. 29, and 53% on Nov. 6th. He was re-elected with 51%; his re-election numbers were entirely consistent with his approval ratings.
I can see the "death match" press now.
Even among those who are polling as not approving of his performance, the majority says his problem is not his politics, but his inability to overcome the opposition of nasty republican obstruction.
>>The question is, will they be fed up enough to stay home on election day?
No they will be voting again, the SEIU and Acorn buses (under a new name of course) will be out picking people up in droves providing box lunches and ballot instructions. It worked so well in 2008 that they will invest even more money in getting people to the polls in 2012. They also know that it will be game over if a republican wins. Even if he or she is has RINO traits.
In States like mine, NC, that have early voting FOR WEEKS ahead of time they will have ample time to bus every single government parasite to the polls at least once. I hate to be negative but this is our last stand and Obama will be handing out all kinds of goodies right before the election from his stash.
As long as the Dems believe below 50% is good enough, I’m happy with that, knowing it is very likely NOT good enough ;)
True! It’s good enough to be a tagline!
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