Most likely than not, she will “stay home” en masse come next November.
I agree. The story of the election (aside from the magnitude of the defeat the Dems will experience) will be how blacks stayed home, as you say, "en masse".
My work has me around many blacks on a daily basis, and I've been sensing some disaffection, no-make that embarrassment, when the topic of Obama is discussed. They are also noticing people like Tim Scott and Allen West. I'm telling you the paradigm is changing, blacks are beginning to see the light.
Will many of them vote for him? Well, yes. But a turnout problem that leaves Obama with 70% of the numbers he garnered with blacks in '08, will cost him several states.