Polls, Polls everywhere (Why Neither Trump nor Huckabee are Really Ahead of Palin)

I have been a casual observer of polls for over three decades, since early 1979 (about the same time in the 1980 election cycle as we find ourselves in the 2012 cycle) when Jimmy Carter was posting a 57-35 lead over Ronald Reagan in the respected Gallup poll. Carter maintained double digits leads over Reagan throughout 1979 and even into the spring of 1980, as the March 31, 1980 edition of time observed. ("National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%.")

Early polls of general election contests (19 months out) are usually wrong. Early polls of primary contests are almost always wrong because intensity and turnout are even more important in primaries than in general elections, and they are far harder to measure. Indeed, even later polls of primary contests are frequently wrong. Yet many seem to put great stock in them, in spite of their historical inaccuracy. Why are early polls wrong far more often than they are right? The answer to this questions suggests that the actual state of the GOP nomination race is 180 degrees different than the polls suggest.

Why are the early polls so consistently wrong? It is very simple: THERE HAS BEEN NO CAMPAIGN. Or, to be more precise, there has been a one dimensional campaign this cycle in which the Democrat candidate (Obama) and the potential GOP contenders--through their surrogates in the media and the Establishment-- have poured a withering fire of invective and slander on one unannounced candidate, to the exclusion of all others...Sarah Palin. Palin has been able to return the fire against Obama, to great effect (driving his popularity down and his policies into disrepute). But her potential GOP opponents, preferring that others do their fighting for them, are cowering in fear while the Krauthammers, Roves, O'Reillys and other "so-called conservatives of the chattering class" do their fighting for them.

Since it is early, the cowardly pretenders in the GOP still have the luxury of "hanging back" while Palin takes the shots, but their time is running out. They will soon have to come out from behind (or under) the rocks which are protecting them. Every one of them has boxcars full of baggage. Romney has RomneyCare, $50 co-pay abortions, enabling gay marriage in Massachusetts and numerous other disabilities. Huckabee has his history of addiction to big government, tax hikes (his unctuous video pleading with the Arkansas legislature for tax hikes...any tax hikes...is truly nauseating), his ethics issues as Governor, his acceptance of consulting fees while governor, including from embryonic stem cell researchers, and his multiple pardons of violent criminals who later committed horrific crimes. Donald Trump has so much personal and political baggage, (from his flip flops on abortion, gay marriage, his recent past alliances with Hillary Clinton and Rahm Emmanuel and Chuck Schumer) that he is less a serious candidate for the GOP nomination than was one-delegate wonder Rudy Giuliani in 2008 (even though Giuliani led the Rasmussen daily tracking poll, often by lopsided margins,for nearly the entirety of 2007). Newt Gingrich is equally burdened (from his affairs to his political dalliances with Nancy Pelosi and Dede Scozzafava) by so much baggage that it cannot be listed here. These guys do not just represent "targets of opportunity" in a GOP primary. They are swollen pustules which will almost explode on their own. For Palin, this lineup might be denominated "the Great 2012 Turkey Shoot."

Since we are in the sesquicentennial of the Civil War, I am reminded of an analogy. In the battle of Fredericksburg in December 1862 (which is marvelously depicted in the movie "Gods and Generals"), the Union Army hurled over half a dozen assaults at Confederates entrenched on and around Marye's Heights and the stone wall in front of it. The Confederates, who never ventured out from behind their stone wall, poured a murderous fire on the Union troops. The courageous charge of the Irish Brigade, which entered the battle with 1600 men, of which 256 survived, was so inspiring that cheer after cheer went up from the Confederate lines at their bravery.

Fast forward six months to July 3, 1863 at Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. The roles are reversed. It is now the Union Army, with the refitted Irish Brigade in the vanguard, that is entrenched behind the stone wall on Cemetery Ridge. The cream of Lee's undefeated Army of Northern Virginia, 15,000 tough fighting men, lie crouching in the woods, awaiting the order to assault the stone wall. As they step out of the woods, they are formidable, the most intimidating sight the Union troops have ever seen. They march unmolested for about half a mile toward the Union line. THEN THE BATTLE BEGINS. Yankee cannon, solid shot then double canister, and finally thousands of muskets, decimate the ranks of the proud Rebels. To the chants of "Fredericksburg, Fredericksburg" by the now exultant Irish Brigade, barely 6000 of Lee's valiant, but vanquished, soldiers make it back to their lines.

Lee's army looked invincible BEFORE the battle began. Not even the polls suggest that any of the so far unmolested GOP pretenders is invincible. When the GOP dwarfs, hardly as formidable or valiant as Pickett's legions, step out of their hideouts six months hence to give battle in the GOP primaries, they will have to defend their own numerous disabilities and spotty records, which will finally come under a withering assault. Moreover, they will be meeting an opponent who has already been battle hardened and armored by the attacks of their own surrogates. In the primaries next spring, it will be the steely Palin who has the political equivalent of the "stone wall". And the dwarfs will have already spent what ammunition they had on her through the attacks of their surrogates from 2009 to the present. They will be firing blanks at her as they approach.

When the white hot rhetorical and political fire is aimed at her opponents (as it will be) and they fold, those of us who support Sarah Palin will try not to gloat. Perhaps we can be forgiven if we just just whisper among ourselves, "Fredericksburg, Fredericksburg."

"I just wish she was still our Governor; it's all went down hill since she left. She was pretty good at running the show, Alaska benefited immensely"

Amen, and AY-MEN!!

"and who would want the financial colonoscopy a billionaire like Trump would have to endure? If that weren't enough, there would be the attacks on every aspect of his life, including his family. Who could endure that and come up victorious? Oh, wait, Sarah Palin already has. Making her ready and able to withstand the barrage the leftmedia will unload on her if and when she announces her candidacy for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. Fortunately, at this point, the left doesn't really have much ammunition. In terms of attacking Sarah Palin, they peaked too soon."

I agree. I have thought this for a long time. She is already vetted.

These guys do not just represent "targets of opportunity" in a GOP primary. They are swollen pustules which will almost explode on their own. For Palin, this lineup might be denominated "the Great 2012 Turkey Shoot."

I owe the author a beer for that one - LOL!

Another Saturday gem, BC. Thanks.

When the white hot rhetorical and political fire is aimed at her opponents (as it will be) and they fold, those of us who support Sarah Palin will try not to gloat.

Not me. I plan to gloat...LOL.

“Not me. I plan to gloat...LOL.”

Me too, Al. I will try to be quiet about it. LOL

“These guys do not just represent “targets of opportunity” in a GOP primary. They are swollen pustules which will almost explode on their own. For Palin, this lineup might be denominated “the Great 2012 Turkey Shoot.”

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I owe the author a beer for that one - LOL!”

Thanks. How about November 6, 2012, as the map is turning red.

Great post. I hope you are right. Most times I feel she can do it, but if she falters the press will crucify her as they have. There has to be a way to close our primaries to republicans only, and to have for once Our Choice as moderator of a debate or two. No mainstream libs as moderators!

“not one of them has even one ball”

Rofl, post of the day! The field is full of scared weenies, who have to focus group test every word they utter. Only Palin, and lately, Trump, dare respond in words to something the day it happens. Trump has caressed a sore nerve on the right. We needed someone to Boldly Go Where No GOPer has gone since Reagan: truth telling, openness, belief in the country. But Trump is like the little rabbit that makes the greyhounds race faster; he won’t be actually in the race, but I think already he has spurred Palin to stronger verbal opposition to Obama. I am grateful to trump for what he’s done.

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