Posted on 04/24/2011 9:42:07 AM PDT by library user
All those who were hoping global stock markets would surge tomorrow based on a ridiculous rumor that China would revalue the CNY by 10% will have to wait.
Instead, China has decided to serve the world another surprise. Following last week's announcement by PBoC Governor Zhou (Where's Waldo) Xiaochuan that the country's excessive stockpile of USD reserves has to be urgently diversified, today we get a sense of just how big the upcoming Chinese defection from the "buy US debt" Nash equilibrium will be.
Not surprisingly, China appears to be getting ready to cut its USD reserves by roughly the amount of dollars that was recently printed by the Fed, or $2 trilion or so.
And to think that this comes just as news that the Japanese pension fund will soon be dumping who knows what. So, once again, how about that "end of QE" again?
From Xinhua:
China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 197.4 billion U.S. dollars in the first three months of this year to 3.04 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of March.
Xia Bin, a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, said on Tuesday that 1 trillion U.S. dollars would be sufficient. He added that China should invest its foreign exchange reserves more strategically, using them to acquire resources and technology needed for the real economy.
And as if the public sector making it all too clear what is about to happen was not enough, here is the private one as well:
China should reduce its excessive foreign exchange reserves and further diversify its holdings, Tang Shuangning, chairman of China Everbright Group, said on Saturday.
The amount of foreign exchange reserves should be restricted to between 800 billion to 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars, Tang told a forum in Beijing, saying that the current reserve amount is too high.
Tang's remarks echoed the stance of Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, who said on Monday that China's foreign exchange reserves "exceed our reasonable requirement" and that the government should upgrade and diversify its foreign exchange management using the excessive reserves.
Tang also said that China should further diversify its foreign exchange holdings. He suggested five channels for using the reserves, including replenishing state-owned capital in key sectors and enterprises, purchasing strategic resources, expanding overseas investment, issuing foreign bonds and improving national welfare in areas like education and health.
However, these strategies can only treat the symptoms but not the root cause, he said, noting that the key is to reform the mechanism of how the reserves are generated and managed.
The last sentence says it all. While China is certainly tired of recycling US Dollars, it still has no viable alternative, especially as long as its own currency is relegated to the C-grade of not even SDR-backing currencies. But that will all change very soon. Once the push for broad Chinese currency acceptance is in play, the CNY and the USD will be unpegged, promptly followed by China dumping the bulk of its USD exposure, and also sending the world a message that US debt is no longer a viable investment opportunity. In fact, we are confident that the reval is a likely a key preceding step to any strategic decision vis-a-vis US FX exposure (read bond purchasing/selling intentions). As such, all those Americans pushing China to revalue, may want to consider that such an action could well guarantee hyperinflation, once the Fed is stuck as being the only buyer of US debt.
If I were China and Russia, I would be running from Dollars and Euros as fast as I could go.
Russia holds huge amounts of Euro debt, and 300 billion of US debt. They also have a large amount of dollars and euros in reserve that they want to discharge.
Brazil, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Syria, Bolivia, and other nations are also seeking to get rid of much of their dollar and euro holdings.
Doesn`t matter.
It`s what the left wants, a crippled USA.
Either way they win, a crippled USA with no influence or a crippled USA with no influence and taken over by the Statist Totalitarian left.
It`s a win win.
Wishful thinking I'm afraid...the plan is to stall it off so the next administration has the disaster to deal with. Their plans seem to be working so far dispite the resistance....they just work around it.
Irresponsible leaders, China has been warning them all along.
I am on the buying end. Been selling whatever I could to get USD since the CDN hit par.
Still nothing to indicate I should stop buying. Quite the opposite.
The Dollar isn’t going to fall forever. Barry O leaves in 2012, what’s going to happen then? If it jumps back up to historical levels at around 0.8 CDN to the USD, I’ll make excellent money, selling my USD for CDN again. :)
If it is they just got the biggest slap in history...
Euro, yes. USD, no. There’s simply too much cash floating around for both the EU and the USD to tank. CDN and AUS won’t be able to soak it all up.
Commodities? Sure, but there’s actually decline on the demand pressure. This has me really nervous. Sure people are stocking up, but there comes a point when everyone who is stocked up has enough and they don’t need anymore.
Sure China can spike commodities prices, but that will hurt them more than anybody else because they are the largest consumer outside the US. If they dump all their holdings in USD, the Chinese consumer is going to break.
Our ‘leaders’ know exactly what they are doing and the result is exactly what they way. The Chinese aren’t some super intelligent people, they are like everyone else. A corrupt govt comprised of mostly corrupt people who only care for themselves.
They aren’t destroying the dollar, they are reacting to its destruction. We are destroying it by pilling up trillions of dollars of debts that can’t possibly be paid, except by printing the necessary dollars.
In "Atlas Shrugged: Part I", gas is $37.50 a gallon, and the Dow is at 4000.
But, hey, that won't happen until 2016, according to the movie.
US debt is still low vs the eurozone. You’re not in bankruptcy, yet, although the scope of the deficit is bad news.
You’ll see an Obama assassination before you’ll see debt + default of the USA.
With the crazy way this market has been acting since Dear Leader took over I'd guess
Up 200+ points tomorrow
That some might be worse off doesn’t change things. And it’s not just a matter of current debt. You have to look where things will be in the future.
There is no plan by either party that will bring the deficit, let alone the total debt, into control in the forseeable future. The political will to enact such a plan does not exist in this country.
Beyond that, there are trillions of unfunded liabilities down the road. Social Security, Medicare, government pensions. It’s massive and there’s no way to pay for it. As it stands right now, looking ahead, default or devaluation throught the printing press are the only options.
Ryan’s plan is a good start...I’m afraid America is in for a rude awakening. WE aren’t used to hunger and doing without but soon I don’t think it will be so strange to many who did not prepare.
What total BS. His policies are now ancient...those of Karl Marx.
I'd like to use your comment for my tag line. It's so "right on".
WE own our home outright and also 7.5 acres outright.I do have a mortgage on a home we planned to sell but if worst comes to worst the bank could ahve that back it is still woth more than is owed on it.FIL has 30+ acres in the same shape so we should be ok no matter what.I worry about my Mom she is on social security but I’m sure out of the 3 of us kids one of us can take her in.Have garden started in basement under growing lights am planning to plant a huge garden this year at FIL’s place.He also has chickens and raises beef every year if we need to add another for us I will.
I am looking at where things will be in the future, and I am confident that America can stop the train. America already voted stop and Obama continues to push. America understands, the politician are only starting to wake up to the anger that the average american has towards their overspending.
“It’s massive and there’s no way to pay for it. As it stands right now, looking ahead, default or devaluation throught the printing press are the only options.”
Actually there are quite a few options.
One, euthanasia.
Two, enslaving the young. We already see two. Young people are getting destroyed and their parents are wondering why. Why? Because there’s simply not enough of us to pull the till, and all of us have to pull and give 100 percent of what we earn, just to keep the till afloat.
Default means destroying boomer wealth, so it won’t happen. Boomers might agree to kill themselves through euthanasia though. We shall see.
The preferable boomer option is enslaving the young, which is what we do see.
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