Posted on 03/14/2011 2:29:02 PM PDT by fightinJAG
The U.S. jobless rate will be 7.7% in November 2012, the highest level for a presidential election month since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976, according to the average forecast of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey.
That rate is well below the 8.9% reported by the Labor Department for February, but still remains high as economists expect job gains to come slowly. "The labor market is a scar that will be slow to fade," said Sean M. Snaith of the University of Central Florida.
On average, the 54 respondentsnot all of whom answer every questionforecast the jobless rate will be 8.8% in June and 8.4% in December of 2011. They forecast the U.S. economy will add about 190,000 jobs a month over the next yearan improvement from the depressed level of job creation so far in this recovery, but still too low to bring the unemployment rate down quickly.
While the 7.7% rate in November 2012 would be the highest in seven presidential election cycles, analysts point out that it is often the overall trendrather than the level of joblessnessthat determines an incumbent's fate. President Carter was defeated in 1980 by Ronald Reagan when the unemployment rate was 7.5%, lower than the level when he was elected but up from 5.6% earlier in his term. Meanwhile, President Reagan was re-elected in 1984 with the rate at 7.2%, but that was down sharply from the peak of 10.8% recorded in 1982.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Agreed.
Of course it will. They are democrats and they will fix the numbers, cook the books and lie over and over as they have been doing all along. The true unemployment is probably around 17-20%. They are democrats, they LIE, they cheat and they steal elections along with our money.
FUBO & FAD
I’m not seeing any new technology on the horizon to cause a spirt in hiring.
You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig. The recession that started in December 2007 has been over since June 2009. Our recovery has been the slowest in history.
They haven’t counted those that fall of the rolls for years and years. That’s nothing new.
If we can’t defeat Baraq on $4 gasoline, 10% unemployment, surging food prices, and $1.5 trillion deficts, we deserve him.
People buy food and gas every week. No matter what the MSM tells them, it’s a big @ss problem. I believe Carville’s law still applies.
“For independents to turn on him, they would have to admit they were wrong and that they are partially responsible for this mess.”
No they won’t; they’ll vote for the Repub and tell their friends they voted for Obama (independents need to make a living/buy gas & groceries like everyone else). That is why Dems fear the secret ballot.
I don’t see Obama running in the general election in 2012; the Dem donors and candidates “down the ticket” from him have too much to lose.
“When your neighbor is out of a job, it is a recession, but when you don’t have a job, it is a depression.”
That is why no amount of spinning will save the Dems; no matter how rosy a picture they paint, Americans know we’re MUCH WORSE OFF than 30 months ago.
It’s a fake number, so who give a flip what some statistician wannabe from some university.
The real rate of unemployed is easily 12% and with the underemployed thrown in, it may be around 19%.
With the price of everything going up and Obama’s abject and conscious failure to drill in the Gulf, he is going to hammered in the debates.
He is going to lose his keystone legislation “ObamaCare” and his Ox will be completely gored by the end of the year.
If he doesn’t say “I’m done” first.
Tingle Dingle Barry.
A fair estimate if you ignore the other 10% that don’t have jobs, or perhaps manage a few hours/week.
Hey, the unemployment rate is whatever OPrecious wants it to be. We all know that 8.9% was BS.
from what I've seen, you may be right. Like your tag line, BTW. Very true.
Yep! Just apply a little more of that Million Man March math...I could actually get down to -3.5%.
The U.S. jobless rate will be 7.7% in November 2012, the highest level for a presidential election month since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976... well below the 8.9% reported by the Labor Department for February... On average, the 54 respondents... forecast the jobless rate will be 8.8% in June and 8.4% in December of 2011
Yes, even if it’s 25%, it will be “7.7%.”
/bingo
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