Posted on 03/14/2011 2:29:02 PM PDT by fightinJAG
The U.S. jobless rate will be 7.7% in November 2012, the highest level for a presidential election month since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976, according to the average forecast of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey.
That rate is well below the 8.9% reported by the Labor Department for February, but still remains high as economists expect job gains to come slowly. "The labor market is a scar that will be slow to fade," said Sean M. Snaith of the University of Central Florida.
On average, the 54 respondents—not all of whom answer every question—forecast the jobless rate will be 8.8% in June and 8.4% in December of 2011. They forecast the U.S. economy will add about 190,000 jobs a month over the next year—an improvement from the depressed level of job creation so far in this recovery, but still too low to bring the unemployment rate down quickly.
While the 7.7% rate in November 2012 would be the highest in seven presidential election cycles, analysts point out that it is often the overall trend—rather than the level of joblessness—that determines an incumbent's fate. President Carter was defeated in 1980 by Ronald Reagan when the unemployment rate was 7.5%, lower than the level when he was elected but up from 5.6% earlier in his term. Meanwhile, President Reagan was re-elected in 1984 with the rate at 7.2%, but that was down sharply from the peak of 10.8% recorded in 1982.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
In other news the Kansas City Royals are predicted to win the World Series.
In other news the Kansas City Royals are predicted to win the World Series.
They lie about everything... and there's no one to call them on it.
* Greatly improved the accuracy of the article.
What’s the old saying? “Figures don’t lie but liars can sure figure...”
Are these the same forecasters that said it would be 7.7% by LAST year?
Just one more big government lie.
I don’t think that number will be true but it doesn’t matter. There’s no way he’s going to lose the election, no way. The media will see to that. Most people are like my praents, they swallow whatever CNN tells them.
If I were Palin I’d run in 2012, call him to the carpet every step of the way, sound the warning on the economy, run a good campaign and make history as the first female nominee of either party.
Then, looking prophetic on the economy, come back and finish the job in 2016. She’ll have the added stature bonus of being “former presidential candidate” in 2016.
I think these economists forgot one variable in their calculations. That variable is Obama’s ability to single handedly put the zap on the economy.
When was it that I heard positive predictions about the unemployment rate before? Oh yes, it was what the “experts” predicted before that stupid stimulus bill.
See my posting titled “Predictions?” back in 2009 to see how all the Freepers were so much more accurate in their economic predictions.
What this gub mint tells ya about unemployment rates is B.S.
Any one believes ANYTHING this gub mint tells you anything is a fool.
10% in Memphis! Gas at the nearest cut rate station to me is $3.40. Grocery prices are up at least 15-20%, even at the Navy Commissary.
However, if we can get a strong (in more ways than one) majority in the Senate, and keep strong in the House, we will be in a better position to survive a second Maobama term, should he happen to get reelected.
They are lying about the current numbers.
Why would any of us believe any ‘projections’ or rates they publish anytime in the future?
As long as the Dems keep power in the Senate & the White House, lying about bad news will continue.
And he is in also if there is a serious natural disaster, attack on this country, or a man-made crisis that should not go to waste.
Yet, the mainstream media has virtually no credibility anymore. After the Gabrielle Gifford shooting, they broadcast 24/7 that it was the fault of right-wing extremists.
Yet, when all was said and done, virtually nobody believed it.
Do not over-estimate the power of the MSM. And be aware that, whatever power they might have, is shrinking every day.
My mother-in-law is like your parents. But that profile grows smaller every day.
LOL. That is what the MSM and the Dems want you to believe. This is defining deviancy down. First of all, the 7.7% would be considered very high unemployment unless you live in the fantasy world of Obama. And that is just the U-3 rate, not the U-6 rate, which would probably be double that.
Here are a couple of charts that should scare the hell out of peiple
Labor Force Participation Rate
Employment-Population Ratio
“The U.S. jobless rate will be 7.7% in November 2012”
They are lying to us. Let’s look at reality vs. the bankstas and politicos lies:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
Obama was elected by Libs and independents. For independents to turn on him, they would have to admit they were wrong and that they are partially responsible for this mess. If employment turns around they will have the cover that they need to vote for him again. You under estimate the power of lib media, plus Obama’s oratory, plus indees compulsion to like him. It will take a charismatic conservative with fresh ideas and that person has not made himself (or her) known yet.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.