Posted on 11/09/2010 6:12:41 AM PST by no dems
The count of the AK Senate Race Absentee Ballots takes place today. Currently, the total Write-in votes exceed Joe Miller's total vote count by 13,500 votes. There are 31,000 Absentee Ballots to be counted today. Absentee Ballots, which contain many military votes, normally go heavily Republican. Lisa Murkowski's name was not on the Absentee Ballot and the people who vote Absentee very seldom do the "Write-in" thing. If they do, it, many times, is not done correctly. So.......
If Joe Miller's lead, after the count of the Absentee Ballots, exceeds the 81,000 Write-in Ballots, which did not all go for Lisa anyway, turn out the lights; the party's over.
Hence the question.
Joe currently has 67,500 votes. Lisa has none as of now. If his Absentee vote total (out of the 31,000 Absentee Ballots) exceeds the 81,000 uncounted write-in ballots, then it’s over.
If his Absentee vote total (out of the 31,000 Absentee Ballots) ADDED TO HIS 67,500 VOTES exceeds the 81,000 uncounted write-in ballots, then it’s over.
There is champagne on my horizon today.
After listening to Levin’s show, it appears that the write in votes will be considered by intent which would favor murky. According to Levin, appears that the AK statute does not consider intent as a deciding factor for counting the vote but the AG seems to be wavering citing the need to prevent “disenfranchisement”.
The statute states that the voter must fill in the oval and spell the name correctly. Now if the name is spelled closely to Murkowski for example, it seems that the AG will count that vote for Murkowski. However, if the oval is not filled out, that the vote will not count. This is inconsistent if you are basing your opinion on voter consent. By that standard, the votes with Murkowski’s name and a blank oval should count too. With that standard gone, the law becomes entirely subjective which defeats the whole purpose.
The AG and the courts should follow the law as written and stop imputing their notions of “fairness” on the law because these notions are too subjective and ultimately, they create opportunities for mischief.
I’d rather enforce a bad law (and this is not a bad law) than have the law rendered subjunctive and meaningless.
BTW, shouldn’t this be in Breaking? Or About to Break ? :)
If any write-in is found invalid or otherwise not for Murkowski, then he would need that number fewer to prevail. Suppose 10% of non-absentee write-ins fall into this category, then Miller could win with as few as 14,250 out of the 31,000 (46%).
Piece of cake. I'm glad we talked.
Joining you in prayer to keep that unholy beech out of the senate.
So in other words... if Joe has the majority of the absentee ballots.... assuming there are few if any write in, absentee ballots... game over Lisa.
Interesting.
Thanks Tex.
Sorry, let’s just keep a good eye on that parking lot, and what’s going on inside.
Joe had it posted on his Facebook Page. But, we knew the Absentee Votes were being counted 1 week after the General Election. Go to Facebook and type Joe Miller in the Search bar.
I’ve never seen “Breaking” as a Forum choice for a Post? Why are you getting so “messy” this mornig txhurl? Are you afraid that Lisa is going to lose? You might feel more at home by visiting the DemocratUnderground website.
Gotta get to work, so I’m outa here.
The mail in ballots were sent in mostly BEFORE Murkowski became a write in and besides that there are over 100 qualified write in candidates which can be voted for AND many times people play games by writing in Mickey Mouse or other nonsense names. Add to that there is a qualified write in candidate named "Lisa M" and it is pretty obvious to me this is no slam dunk for Murkowski by a long shot.
By what logic does one assume ALL write ins go to Murkowski?
You are so right!
How can anyone figure out anything about this at this point. The only thing we know for sure is that Joe Miller has 69,762, [unofficial results here]
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/10GENR/data/results.htm
Lisa Murkowski may get some write-ins, remember her name is not on the absentee ballot. The other thing we know is that write-ins are 83,201, and the absentee ballots are 31,000.
We also know things about the primary. The republican absentee ballots were 12,000 and Lisa Murkowski’s name was on the ballot. Murkowski got 3.2% or maybe a little more, and Miller got around 13.58%. Those are estimates based on what figures I could find. There were an additional 8600 questioned and absentee ballots for which I couldn’t find figures.
So, if we want to take these figures ... [yes, I know they probably don’t relate to the general elections, but at least there are figures from which to project :)] ... if Joe Miller only gets 13.58% of absentee ballots, that would be 4210 and his total would be 73, 972. And if Murkowski gets 3.8% [remembering that her name is NOT on that ballot and it would have to be written in and many ballots were probably already sent back before the write-in really heated up] she would have 118 votes. She would then need 83.75% of the write-in votes to win.
So, is 83.75% of the write-in votes something that seems do-able? Oh, and all 83.75% would have to follow Alaska law which says that the name must be EXACT [until the partisans change it after the count doesn’t give her the]
Anyway, just my little math game for the day...
That’s me that did that. Just misread it.
“Too high, what does that mean ‘too high’?”
“Who gives a ****, it’s gone.”
I hope so. That said (forgive the negativism) I am outright horrified at the number of blitheringly stupid Alaskans who voted for that sore loser Murkowski. If their ideological positions were reversed I would still say that...losing the primary fair and square means your race is over, unless you’re an absolute tool.
Although it would obviously be better for folks to just vote for Miller, it is kind of funny to imagine Murkowski’s staff saying, “Look at how many write-ins there are! We have this in the bag!” and then find out that 20,000 of them were for Doanld Duck and Eric Cartman. :-)
Bttt
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