You are so right!
How can anyone figure out anything about this at this point. The only thing we know for sure is that Joe Miller has 69,762, [unofficial results here]
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/10GENR/data/results.htm
Lisa Murkowski may get some write-ins, remember her name is not on the absentee ballot. The other thing we know is that write-ins are 83,201, and the absentee ballots are 31,000.
We also know things about the primary. The republican absentee ballots were 12,000 and Lisa Murkowski’s name was on the ballot. Murkowski got 3.2% or maybe a little more, and Miller got around 13.58%. Those are estimates based on what figures I could find. There were an additional 8600 questioned and absentee ballots for which I couldn’t find figures.
So, if we want to take these figures ... [yes, I know they probably don’t relate to the general elections, but at least there are figures from which to project :)] ... if Joe Miller only gets 13.58% of absentee ballots, that would be 4210 and his total would be 73, 972. And if Murkowski gets 3.8% [remembering that her name is NOT on that ballot and it would have to be written in and many ballots were probably already sent back before the write-in really heated up] she would have 118 votes. She would then need 83.75% of the write-in votes to win.
So, is 83.75% of the write-in votes something that seems do-able? Oh, and all 83.75% would have to follow Alaska law which says that the name must be EXACT [until the partisans change it after the count doesn’t give her the]
Anyway, just my little math game for the day...
Seems obvious that the absentee ballots would most likely have been cast early. Being early, Murkowski wouldn’t have yet made her last-ditch run. Therefore, I’d be surprised if Murkowski were on more than a handfull of absentee ballots.
Alaska is a traditional republican state and soldiers, in particular, tend to be conservative voters.
Since Murkowski now has zero votes at all and Miller has over 67000, then Murkowski has to get 67,500 of the write-in votes just to catch up with Miller.
But, what if Miller gets 55% of the 31000 absentee ballots and Murkowski gets none since she wasn’t on the absentee ballot? 55% is 17050 votes. Add that to Miller’s 67500 and Miller has 84550 to Murkowski’s nothing.
Can Murkowski get 84,550 votes? Uhhhh....NOOO!
There are only 81000 write in votes. If she got every single write-in vote, and there are only 81000 of them, she can never get 84,550 votes. It is impossible.