By what logic does one assume ALL write ins go to Murkowski?
That’s me that did that. Just misread it.
My guess is that they know the normal number of write-ins, and can compare that to the number of write-ins for this race and figure that the different is all Murkowski votes.
But I haven’t actually seen any posts which say how many write-in ballots there were in, say, the 2008 race.
We also know that a percentage of write-ins are usually jokes or misspellings. But using percentages in this case would be irrational — there is no reason to believe that in a race where a solid well-funded well-known candidate drives up the write-ins by a factor of 10, that this would mean 10 times as many people would also write in joke names.
So if I were trying to guess the results, I’d look at the 2008 write-in votes that were invalid, subtract that NUMBER (not percentage) from the 2010 write-ins.