Posted on 11/05/2010 7:17:18 AM PDT by Rational Thought
She may have won. Or she may be overly optimistic.
Murkowski's fate rests in the reading of more than 83,000 write-in ballots. As of Thursday, initial returns showed write-in ballots held a 13,439-vote edge over GOP nominee Joe Miller, but it's not clear how many of those are for Murkowski -- or how many of the ballots have been cast properly.
At least 37,800 absentee, early and questioned ballots also need to be tallied.
(Excerpt) Read more at adn.com ...
Please Lord, just this one time... let one vote go our way...
What really ticks me off is these people get voted out, then find a way back!! like power hungry demons!!
This is a direct attack on the Tea party vote and Sarah.
If Murkowski had any integrity she would drop out and yield to Miller. She clearly has no respect for the primary voters and results because she did not like losing. She has no business being in this race and is behaving like a typical Democrat. Democrats are evil and characterized by greed and corruption. The Republican elite are on the same stage as the Democrats IMO.
Do we have any leadership in the Republican Party?
If Joe Miller was smart he would have recruited somebody with a similar sounding name to Lisa Murkowski and challenged every single write in. :-)
At least a portion of the leadership appears to be backing Murkowski.
RINOs (and Establishment Politicians) are tough when it comes to their own survival.
It's another election tactic.
Borne out of nepotism, clinging to her power, not respecting the political process when given the boot, running a nasty smear campaign against Joe M.........Lisa M. is an embarrassment.
Discounting for now the absentee ballots, and assuming that the Lt. Governor’s ruling holds that Mr. Miller can receive no write-in votes, Ms. Murkowski needs about 84% of the write-ins to win.
If the absentee ballots favor Mr. Miller more than the regular ballots did, and have fewer write-ins, percentage-wise, Ms. Murkowski will need more than 84% of the write-ins. If the absentees have a low level of write-ins, it may not be possible for Ms. Murkowski to win, or at least, it will become necessary to take nearly all the write-ins.
This isn’t over by a long shot.
And it will not go unpunished.
You think members of the military will vote for a West Pont grad over Lisa. End sarcasm
I noticed that the tactic used by the MSM from election night to now has been to assume every write in vote was a vote for Murkowski. Going so far as to even superimpose Murkowski’s face over the on-screen “write-in” total.
It is absolutely impossible for her to have received 100% of the write-in vote. Her presumed vote total can only go down as the write-ins are opened.
From what I heard, there are over 100 write in candidates in the mix here. By my calculations she would have to maintain her lead with the absentees and garner 85% of the write-in total to win. My math may be fuzzy, but that’s what I’m thinking right now.
So roughly 100,000 ballots have not yet been analyzed, but she declares herself the winner anyway. Either the entire election has been bought and paid for, or Miss Lisa has the most flagrant sense of entitlement possible.
F the NRCC!
These A-holes are doing absolutely nothing to help Miller, THE ONLY “R” ON THE BALLOT”.
But she’s going to get 84% of the write ins....really she’s going to get close to all of them.
I do hope we pull this out, but I don’t think we can. The establishment is too corrupt.
One thing RINOs aren't are our friends.
This is maddening!
Joe Miller has 69k verified votes. There are 83k votes that are write ins. I can’t fathom how the other candidate is assuming she got over 69k write ins with 99+ other people on the write in list.
The way I see it is Joe Miller has a 69k lead in this race until those write ins are tallied.
“If Republicans in Alaska are not interested in the results of Primaries, why even have them? “
They are fine as long as the “right” people win. The establishment pubbies in AK are an unpleasant bunch with a huge sense of entitlement and hubris. They hate Palin more than they hate the democrats. Some of them talk about how “conservative” they are but when offered the choice between a conservative and a bring home the bacon business as usual RINO they cheerfully pick the rino.
Joe could have beat Murkowski but he was also running against the native corporations, federal and state entitities, the oil compapanies and the Alaska republican party.It’s hard to track that many targets.
Since most of these ballots are members of the Military, odds are good that Miller will take a large majority of these.
It would be interesting to see some hard stats on these assertions that most are military. I’m sure a lot are and may likely go Miller’s way since he has ties to the military through his graduation from West Point. However I read an article yesterday about 4,000 boat captains being encouraged to vote absentee for Murkowski. I think it possible a lot of people out in the boonies would vote absentee just because of their location and maybe not likely to be influence by the media stuff thus maybe helping Miller. In any case this will be interesting to see how it develops over the next three weeks or so. Hopefully it won’t be another FL/MI event.
She may very well get 84% of the write-ins.
But that doesn't take into account the 31,000 absentee ballots.
If they fall out the same as the in-person, election day ballots, 24D, 35R, 41Write-in, Mr. Miller is likely toast.
But I've read that most of those ballots are military personnel who: 1) may be significantly less inclined to vote against a military veteran in favor of a princess and 2) may have been less affected by the whole Murkowski kerfuffle and thus more inclined to just vote for one of the candidates on the ballot, ignoring the whole write-in thing altogether.
Let's say that the write-in totals of the absentee ballots are 15%. That's about 4600 more write-ins, bringing the total of write-ins to about 88,000, give or take. Let's say that Mr. Miller split the non-write-in, two-party vote with the Dem the same as it came out in the in-person, election day totals - about 60%R - 40%D. That would give Mr. Miller roughly 15,000 more votes, or about 85,000 in total. Ms. Murkowski then would need roughly 97% of all write-ins to win. It isn't likely that 97% of the write-ins were even validly cast.
Now, if it turns out that 30% of the absentees were write-ins, then Ms. Murkowski has a much better shot. She'll need about 85% of all the write-ins cast, which means she will need probably 90+% of all the validly-cast write-ins, but that's much more believable than 97% of all write-ins, before determining validity.
It ain't over till it's over.
sitetest
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.