But she’s going to get 84% of the write ins....really she’s going to get close to all of them.
I do hope we pull this out, but I don’t think we can. The establishment is too corrupt.
This is maddening!
Joe Miller has 69k verified votes. There are 83k votes that are write ins. I can’t fathom how the other candidate is assuming she got over 69k write ins with 99+ other people on the write in list.
The way I see it is Joe Miller has a 69k lead in this race until those write ins are tallied.
She may very well get 84% of the write-ins.
But that doesn't take into account the 31,000 absentee ballots.
If they fall out the same as the in-person, election day ballots, 24D, 35R, 41Write-in, Mr. Miller is likely toast.
But I've read that most of those ballots are military personnel who: 1) may be significantly less inclined to vote against a military veteran in favor of a princess and 2) may have been less affected by the whole Murkowski kerfuffle and thus more inclined to just vote for one of the candidates on the ballot, ignoring the whole write-in thing altogether.
Let's say that the write-in totals of the absentee ballots are 15%. That's about 4600 more write-ins, bringing the total of write-ins to about 88,000, give or take. Let's say that Mr. Miller split the non-write-in, two-party vote with the Dem the same as it came out in the in-person, election day totals - about 60%R - 40%D. That would give Mr. Miller roughly 15,000 more votes, or about 85,000 in total. Ms. Murkowski then would need roughly 97% of all write-ins to win. It isn't likely that 97% of the write-ins were even validly cast.
Now, if it turns out that 30% of the absentees were write-ins, then Ms. Murkowski has a much better shot. She'll need about 85% of all the write-ins cast, which means she will need probably 90+% of all the validly-cast write-ins, but that's much more believable than 97% of all write-ins, before determining validity.
It ain't over till it's over.
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