Posted on 11/03/2010 2:03:15 AM PDT by Lexinom
I put some effort into compiling this data and hope it may help prove, with hard data, that the Nevada "election" was not a one-legal-citizen, one-vote affair. I believe the Angle campaign has a case based on a comparison of the accuracy of polling of other races with that of their own, where the result was well outside the MOE of an aggregate of polls. Off one pull fine. Off seven by a wide margin, not kosher.
The first data points (EXHIBIT A) are from a sampling of races and the poll aggregates leading up to election day.
The second set of data points (EXHIBIT B) represent the polling for the Nevada race and shows a great deviation not only outside of the consistently polled trends but well beyond the margin of error of multiple, agreeing polls. I think the Angle campaign may have a case, and it's critical, if nothing else, that they use this golden opportunity before them to begin cleaning up the corruption that hampers the democratic process and disenfranchises thousands of legal citizens. PLEASE... Move forward with this!
EXHIBIT A - ACCURATE POLLING IN RACES FROM 2 NOVEMBER 2010(*)
Toomey/Sestak RCP Average 10/24 - 10/31 -- 49.5 45.0 Toomey +4.5 PPP (D) 10/30 - 10/31 772 LV 51 46 Toomey +5 Morning Call Tracking 10/28 - 10/31 474 LV 48 44 Toomey +4 Quinnipiac 10/25 - 10/30 1244 LV 50 45 Toomey +5 Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 10/28 750 LV 50 46 Toomey +4 McClatchy/Marist 10/26 - 10/28 461 LV 52 45 Toomey +7 Susquehanna 10/24 - 10/27 800 LV 46 44 Toomey +2Toomey won by 2%.
Boxer/Fiorina race RCP Average 10/26 - 10/31 -- 48.3 43.3 Boxer +5.0 PPP (D) 10/29 - 10/31 882 LV 50 46 Boxer +4 SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/31 587 LV 46 38 Boxer +8 Rasmussen Reports 10/27 - 10/27 750 LV 49 46 Boxer +3"The AP called the race as Boxer took a lead of 48 percent to 46 percent, with 15 percent of precincts reporting."
Rubio/Crist/Meek RCP Average 10/25 - 10/31 -- 47.0 30.0 19.2 Rubio +17.0 PPP (D) 10/30 - 10/31 773 LV 47 30 21 Rubio +17 Sunshine State News/VSS 10/29 - 10/31 1527 LV 48 31 20 Rubio +17 Quinnipiac 10/25 - 10/31 925 LV 45 31 18 Rubio +14 Rasmussen Reports 10/27 - 10/27 750 LV 50 30 16 Rubio +20 Mason-Dixon 10/25 - 10/27 625 LV 45 28 21 Rubio +17Rubio won by 19%.
Marco Rubio REP 2,604,892 (49.00%) Kendrick B. Meek DEM 1,070,242 (20.13%)
Kirk/Giannoulias RCP Average 10/18 - 10/31 -- 44.8 41.5 Kirk +3.3 PPP (D) 10/30 - 10/31 814 LV 46 42 Kirk +4 FOX News/POR-Rasmussen 10/30 - 10/30 1000 LV 46 42 Kirk +4 Chicago Tribune 10/18 - 10/22 700 LV 44 41 Kirk +3 Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon 10/18 - 10/20 625 LV 43 41 Kirk +2Kirk won by 2%.
Kirk (R) 1,749,941 48.4% Giannoulias (D) 1,667,527 46.1%( source)
Blumenthal/ McMahonRCP Average 10/24 - 10/31 53.0 44.3 Blumenthal +8.7 Rasmussen Reports 10/31 - 10/31 750 LV 53 46 Blumenthal +7 Quinnipiac 10/25 - 10/31 930 LV 53 44 Blumenthal +9 PPP (D) 10/27 - 10/29 759 LV 54 43 Blumenthal +11 CT Capitol Report/MRG 10/24 - 10/26 1846 LV 52 44 Blumenthal +8Blumenthal by 8%
Johnson/Feingold RCP Average 10/25 - 10/28 52.7 45.0 Johnson +7.7 McClatchy/Marist 10/26 - 10/28 491 LV 52 45 Johnson +7 PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 1372 LV 53 44 Johnson +9 Rasmussen Reports 10/25 - 10/25 750 LV 53 46 Johnson +7Johnson by 5%
Coons/ODonnell RCP Average 10/14 - 10/27 53.0 39.0 Coons +14.0 Monmouth University 10/25 - 10/27 1171 LV 51 41 Coons +10 Fairleigh Dickinson 10/20 - 10/26 797 LV 57 36 Coons +21 Rasmussen Reports 10/14 - 10/14 500 LV 51 40 Coons +11Coons by 16%
Burr/Marshall RCP Average 10/12 - 10/31 50.3 37.5 Burr +12.8 PPP (D) 10/29 - 10/31 847 LV 52 40 Burr +12 SurveyUSA 10/22 - 10/25 590 LV 53 38 Burr +15 Civitas (R) 10/18 - 10/20 600 LV 44 34 Burr +10 Rasmussen Reports 10/12 - 10/12 500 LV 52 38 Burr +14Burr by 12%
These demonstrate the veracity of the polling mechanisms. All margin of victories closely matched the leadup polling.
EXHIBIT B: POLLING AND RESULT OF NEVADA SENATE RACE, 2 NOVEMBER 2010(*)
RCP Average 10/25 - 10/31 48.0 45.3 Angle +2.7 --------------------------------------------------------------- PPP (D) 10/30 - 10/31 682 LV 47 46 Angle +1 FOX News/POR-Rasmussen 10/30 - 10/30 1000 LV 48 45 Angle +3 LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 10/25 - 10/27 625 LV 49 45 Angle +4 Rasmussen Reports 10/25 - 10/25 750 LV 49 45 Angle +4 CNN/Time 10/20 - 10/26 773 LV 49 45 Angle +4 Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 750 LV 50 47 Angle +3 LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 10/11 - 10/12 625 LV 48 46 Angle +2 Rasmussen Reports 10/11 - 10/11 750 LV 49 48 Angle +1<
Result: Angle -5 ( source )
Counted Ballots 11/2 45 50 Angle -5
7 polls by professional and reputable pollsters are off by an average of 7.7% And we are to lend credibility to this result? Not one poll, not two. SEVEN, each with a typically small MOE.
It's in Sharron's hands at this moment, but from what I've seen in the past - Rossi/Gregoire (2004) was enough. I say Franken/Coleman (2008) - was enough to convince me of enough.
It's time for accountability and action.
*All polls in this and previous posts by lexinom and Black_Shark are from Real Clear Politics. All credit is to be given to them and their team for compiling this data. We are just copying it here for evidence.
I am sick and tired of people complaining about fraud, and not doing anything. If you want a clean election next time, you have to do something now, and keep the issue fresh.
Polls are not hard data, they are samples that are subject to easy manipulation.
My book, HARRY: Money Mob & Influence could have made a big difference, but was shut out by the local media. Nevada is just plain corrupt.
Polling data? I wouldn’t trust polls as far as I can throw a pollster.
Yep. When that's an option, many voters find themselves looking at the ballot, think, "eh, to heck with both of those clowns", and vote NOTA.
Call this number and ask GOP attorneys...they are on stand by to answer questions and give advise on voter fraud. 1-888-404-2863 or this one 1-888-775-8117
"Margin of Error" in a poll, corresponds to the uncertainty in a statistical result, assuming that the sample population is representative of the whole population. It's mainly a function of the sample size.
(The actual explanation of MOE is more detailed than that, but that's the general idea.)
If the sample population is not representative, then MOE is not useful as a measure of accuracy.
Here's the question, then: what methods were used to sample the voters in Nevada's polls? What sort of process bias could explain the consistency of the wrong results?
What you're really seeing, is probably a failure of methods used for telephone-based samples (all polling organizations use essentially the same techniques).
Is there a law in NV that limits calls to land-lines or cell phones? Is there a class of voters who are unlikely to answer their phones (e.g., casino workers?).
It's probably not evidence of fraud, though.
The rats appear to have stolen an election which was not close enough to steal. The only question is what are we going to do about it.
Right you are! The time to do more then bitch is upon us. Our electoral process must be made error and fraud free. It’s going to be hard to do nationally with AG Holder but I hope it can be addressed locally. Our local system of ID verification, even neighbor to neighbor, appears to be fraud free in terms of voter eligibility but don’t know how the paper ballots/machine counting is protected.
By my count there were 40k+ more total votes for the Senate race than there were for the governor’s race or any of the other state offices. What would account for this?
Gov - 716,528
AG - 704,331
SoS - 703,512
Lt Gov - 703,494
Treas - 700,915
Cont - 697,618
Senate - 719,830
Margin - 40,659
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/nevada
Why can’t the lawyers for the Republican party file suit to have these machines impounded???
I agree that Reid stole this election illegally. Just asking a Corporation (Casino) to insist it’s employees appear at polls and vote for Reid is illegal. There needs to be a Republican lawsuit file to investigate Reid, SEIU and the Voting Machines.....it should not be allowed to stand!
Another member has brought out the excellent point that there is a 17,000 vote disparity between the total # of votes for Papa Reid and Junior Reid. Sorry, 17,000?
I'm sorry, this stinks to high heaven and combine it with the sudden $1M cash infusion the day before - too late to buy advertising.
If Harry REID’S son is involved in the Voting Machines, as well as SEIU, then those voting machines need to be collected, examined as a criminal act. It was a conflict of interest for the son to be involved, period.
FRAUD is a crime, and if there is one conservative sheriff or Police Chief in that district, and one vote can be proven fraudalent, then can’t those voting machines be taken as evidence for examination by forensics? Where does Nevada Election Laws stand on this, and on the criminal justice aspect of voter fraud. What would it take to get a criminal case going, if there is fraud?
Of course now they are being sued for finding the fraud—by George Soros funded groups. Gee whiz, who'd ah thunk old George would be interested in this? That man is worse than my closet man nightmares as a child and believe me closet man was scary as all get out. I'm in my fifties and still won't go to sleep with a closet door open! :)
The unfounded lawsuits aren't going to work, but will tie up their time, cost money and attempt to discredit the group. They can pass on to others how to start the search(I think they started with homes that had a high number of registered voters), and what they have learned by trial and error. If FR had a group working on voter rolls in the most questionable districts you know we could make a dent in the fraud. We can't wait for government to do it because it never gets done.
Here's their website http://www.truethevote.org/
fill out the form and see what happens.
I don’t know the answers to that but those are important questions, and why I posted this thread. Any NV Freepers know, or know where to find out?
NEVADA ELECTION LAWS
http://www.leg.state.nv.us/nrs/NRS-293.html
Just click on blue numbers at left for more information by category.
If they can find some voter FRAUD, it could be a criminal case of Voter Fraud depending on Nevada law, and then the voting machines could be seized as evidence and examined. Were the machines rigged before the vote? Are there any conservatives in law enforcement in that district?
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