Etheridge 41%
Posted on 10/28/2010 9:49:32 PM PDT by MitchellC
Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic incumbent Congressman Bob Etheridge’s electoral future appears to be in jeopardy as he trails Republican challenger Renee Ellmers by 5 percentage points with less than one week until the election.
According to the poll of 400 registered voters in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, Ellmers leads Etheridge 46 percent to 41 percent. Libertarian candidate Tom Rose garners 6 percent of the vote while 7 percent of voters are undecided.
Among voters who say they are definitely voting this year, Ellmers’ lead grows to 49 percent to 40 percent.
“Bob Etheridge is in the political fight of his life,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “The Republican tide sweeping across the nation appears to be catching Bob Etheridge in its wake.”
Ellmers is able to build a lead due to strength among unaffiliated voters who are supporting her by a 52-19 margin. Etheridge is also losing 20 percent of his Democratic base vote to Ellmers.
Support for Etheridge tracks nearly in line with voter support for President Barack Obama in the district. An identical 41 percent of voters both approve of the job Obama is doing as President and say they are voting for Etheridge. Ninety-seven percent of voters who say they disapprove of the job Obama is doing are voting for Ellmers.
“Voter dissatisfaction with President Obama and Congress is more of a factor in this race than the personality of either of the candidates. It may not matter what Bob Etheridge does or says, voters are taking out their frustrations with Washington on him,” added Hayes.
For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.
The survey of 400 registered voters was taken October 21-24 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method. It carries a margin of error of +/- 5%.
This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. ###
NC Congress District 2 October 10 PR CTs.pdf
This is excellent. I was starting to wonder about this one, particularly because of Ellmers’ money disadvantage. Good thing the outside groups chipped in.
I’d really like to see this guy go away.
Me too. I think we’ll see four House seats flip in NC, with an outside shot at a fifth. And because the Republicans will probably win both state houses, any of these rats that manage to hang on will be drawn out of a seat in 2012 (except for the two VRA seats).
Well SarahPAC just gave Ellmers campaign $5,000 not to long ago.
Which four seats do you definitively expect to flip ? I’m thinking 2, 7, 8 & 11 (and possibly 4 or even 13).
Those are the four. Very outside shot at the 4th. I’ve heard nothing out of the 13th since the primary.
Very little data on the Shuler race. He has a strong opponent, the district is favorable - it's a lot like the Lincoln Davis / Gene Taylor races.
Early voting results have been very good statewide, I believe. NC could see the full force of the wave.
Other than perhaps an issue of money, I don’t see why she shouldn’t be leading. Etheridge is in a GOP-leaning district, and had David Funderburk not screwed up with that driving mishap, he might still be in that seat today. Etheridge’s angry, thug-like reaction to the young man questioning him should be the final nail in his political coffin. If we can flush him out, take those other 3 seats, and maybe even Price & Brad Miller, all the better.
That’s the question Etheridge is going to get asked once he loses his seat in Congress.
My inside source confidently informs me that the Repubs will get 70 in the Legislature and 30 in the Senate.
Folks might want to know that the government-employed pop in the three-county (Harnett-Lee-Chatham) area is huge. Don’t know if it would account for all, but it sure could be a big chunk of what Etheridge has for support.
You have no idea how much I want to see Mumbles out of a job!
Weak candidate, amateur campaign imo. But I don't know that Etheridge has had a campaign worth mentioning. When's the last time he's had a race?
That sounds about right to me. Probably a little more upside than downside from that number.
I think this is the x-factor on election night. Among 'likely' voters the difference in this poll goes up from 6% to 9%.
Etheridge hasn’t had a real close race since he dislodged the damaged Funderburk in ‘96. Dan Page was well-regarded in ‘98, but still only ended up with less than 42%.
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