Posted on 08/23/2010 10:02:07 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
In the past week or so, just about every technology company out there has announced or has been rumored to be carrying a Google (GOOG) Android-based tablet. Here's a list I've compiled below:
HTC is using Israeli-based N-Trig to build their Android tablet for shipment in time for holiday shoppers according to TheMarker. The timing may be tied to a dubious rumor but N-trig is separately working with HTC on multi-touch tablets and HTC is one of the leading suppliers of Android devices in the world.
Chang Ma, vice president of marketing for LG's mobile-devices unit told the WSJ, that LG's Android tablet will set itself apart from Apple Inc.'s iPad by focusing on the ability to create content, rather than simply display it. It will also have "high-end features and new benefits," many of which will focus on productivity, Mr. Ma said. "It's going to be surprisingly productive. Our tablet will be better than the iPad." Those are some mighty big words.
Motorola is rumored to be building a 10-inch Android tablet, codenamed 'Stingray', that will sell at the end of the year on Verizon's wireless network. Motorola's(MOT) Android tablet will be bundled with Verizon and may have GoogleTV functionality according to various reports. CNet gives this product the best chance at challenging the iPad.
Samsung is likely introducing its Galaxy Tab seven-inch Android tablet at IFA 2010, which starts September 3rd in Berlin. Standout features for this product will be its front and back cameras, 3G (Vodafone?) and Super AMOLED display. Samsung may also launch its iPod touch competitor, the Yepp YP-MB2 four inch mini tablet at the event. This device is essentially a Samsung Galaxy S phone without the 3G hardware inside. It will still have the Android market, however.
(Excerpt) Read more at tech.fortune.cnn.com ...
A MaxiPad?
On the Apple vs. Microsoft, I looked up the dividend situation. From what I see the situation has reversed in the last decade:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/187093-apple-vs-microsoft-over-the-past-20-years
The lack of a memory card slot in the iPad is a show-stopper failing for me (even before noting that it's obviously a method to enable Apple to charge an extra $100 for 16GB or 32GB of additional memory -- the latter is overpriced and the former is downright highway robbery).
Anyway, like it or not, the tablet is going to CHANGE THE WORLD forever. Apple by themselves are going to sell a billion of these tablets and the Googles, HPs and Microsofts of the world will sell billions more. Yes, I said BILLIONS. Might as well put up one of those "McDonalds" signs, only instead of billions of hamburgers, it will be billions of tablets.
I have seen the future of computing and the future of computing is with tablets. In ten years, the concept of a "home PC" or even a "laptop" will seem as ancient to us as a VCR seems to us today. The Apple tablet is a revolutionary product and consider how polished it is for a first generation device. Future generations of this product with have capabilities that are sure to stagger the imagination, especially when other major players (other than Apple) get into the game and the race is on to innovate further.
Eventually everybody will own several tablets (that is why I am predicting they will sell in the billions), all of them synced together so whether you use the one at work, in your car or on your back porch, you will have instant access to all your information. You will be able to buy one at the store (most likely in the checkout section of your supermarket) and by the time you get the groceries loaded in your car, your new tablet will be completely synced up with all your other ones. In other words, these tablets will become a commodity item. You drop one on the sidewalk and crack the screen? No big deal, just pick up another one next time you are at Wal-mart or the gas station.
Within our lifetime, buying a new tablet will be no different than picking up a tube of toothpaste at the local CVS and the computing power on one of these will exceed all the computing power that exists in the world today.
I doubt that -- there's no substitute for a proper keyboard if you're writing anything longer than a grocery list.
I think you’re right on the $10 bar for a mass sign up. Netflix has really built a lead here. I have no idea if Apple will come up with a premium service for the high end that finds a niche. Perhaps it will be the hardware/software and integration into all media that it aims for (as it is in its offering now).
As I said, I’m not really the market, and I don’t know except anecdotally how well their current tv offering is doing.
Last time I checked out Hulu, they didn’t have the content - for me anyway. But something like that, perhaps the networks and other content providers will find an internet subscription - or advertising supported like Hulu - model.
Yep on the keyboard. But I think the iPad is a “third computer.” I can’t see anyone other than a really light user having an iPad as their only puter.
Yes, you did.
Adam by Notion Ink has been the talk of all the insiders.
And PS3 for Netflix.
Nope, they're part of the DJIA for a reason - they're now a stable, long-term growth company like XOM or WMT. Consistent profits, very good dividend, stable marketshare. They're no longer a volatile stock, they've become certifiably blue-chip!
Side question: How does Google make money off the Android? Do they get it all from the phone manufacturer, phone service provider, support or..?
I haven’t seen anything on how this works, but I imagine Google has some solid plan in mind. Any idea of the business model there?
Google makes nothing off the sale or use of Android OS - zero. They make some off the Android Market, but where they make most of their money is the same place they make it on the web: search and ad impressions.
Android uses Chrome, has Google Search as its engine, and Google Maps. All use paid-for advertisement, much like Google's own Internet search engine. Having 50+ million phones and devices (and that number increasing by 300,000 per day) showing your ads is a HUGE revenue stream.
Google hasn't deviated at all from their business plan - sell ad impressions. Everything they do is to get more impressions in front of users. Even if that means developing a free OS for use on phones and devices. It's all about ad impressions.
Thankfully, they keep the impressions small and unobtrusive!
There's a reason Apple banned AdMob (Google's ad engine) from the iPhone, and it's not about "safety" or "customer experience" as Jobs and Co. implied. It's about keeping dollars out of Google, and trying to get some for Apple.
To put it all into perspective, Apple made just over $8 billion last year, in net profit, on sales of $42 billion. A reasonable 19% profit margin.
Google made $6.5 billion - nearly as much as Apple - on sales of $26 billion. A very nice 25% profit margin.
Microsoft made $19 billion on sales of $62 billion. A huge 31% profit margin.
Between those three heavyweights, Apple comes up short in the profit margin, and barely beats Google in terms of absolute dollars. And Microsoft still crushes the other two, with revenue nearly equal to the other two combined, and more total profits than the other two combined.
Apple's about to be passed by Google, in terms of absolute profit dollars. My guess is it happens sometime Q1 of 2011, thanks to the steamrolling marketshare of Android. When that happens, you'll see a pretty long and probably steep slide in the share price of AAPL.
I don’t think tablets are ever going to get down to $10, which is what it would have to be to fulfill your toothpaste prophecy.
I doubt the future of computing will ever be primarily tablets. Tablets have a few major issues that will prevent them from becoming function machines, game and amusement machines sure but not function. The screen size is small, they generally have either no keyboard or a very small button style keyboard. Try typing a 30 page document on one of those things. Then of course there’s storage space, the have remarkably little of it. They’re just plain not useful for business, home sure but as business it’s a non-starter.
Why would people need multiple of these things synced together. Their big reason to exist is portability, nobody really needs more than one. Everybody in household might have one but if the things are useful enough to take over the industry nobody would need more than one.
I think you got a lot of pipe dream in there but the basic reality is different. You’re basically predicting they’ll become to the next generation what disposable watches were in the 1980s. But between the cost (it’s never going to be that cheap) and the functionality (they really aren’t that useful) it’ll never happen. These things might replace portable gaming, they might even replace e-readers, they might replace desktops for the “e-mail and internet” crowd, but that’s pretty much the outside limit.
The bigger Apple rumor is an I-TV. Loads of apps to make the TV way cool.
We’ll see if your predictions are correct. I’m not invested anywhere in these companies, about all I care about is a good reliable computer value.
Google could bubble also. I think they are very smart, but in technology businesses there’s always a likelihood of someone smarter around the bend..
Interesting take, but AAPL doesn’t have a dividend; MSFT does (about $0.56 per share). Apple’s had a heck of a price run, but how does lower revenue, lower profits, lower profit margin, lower market share, less cash in the bank, same debt (zero), less total assets, and no dividend equal a higher market cap?
IMHO, it’s exuberance and hope at this point - classic signs of a bubble. I tend to go by the numbers, though, rather than trends or pure potential play. Yes, my stock market investments haven’t had a breakout hit, but they’ve never really suffered, either.
I like my RBS and XOM, nice consistent performers with fat dividends and consistent performance. Low volatility with nice quarterly payouts is what I look for with the bulk of my stock investments...
What percentage of the personal computing business do you think is included in that statement.
My guess is about 90%.
I play very safe as well. But dividends is not the total picture in terms of the value of your investment. You can look at nice quarterly regular checks or you can look at how much your investment has appreciated.
Over the last decade, it seems a player would be better off asset-wise had they gone with Apple over MSFT with the same investment.
But then, this is, for me, a high risk game at my age. I’d probably sell it all today and look for something safer. :)
And for the decade before that, MSFT was the clear winner. Remember, past performance is NOT indicative of future performance! The last two decades for MSFT and AAPL show that...
For predicting the future, I look at hard numbers: profitability, P/E ratio, market share, stability, revenue, dividend. In all those measures, AAPL comes up short compared to MSFT, and not much better than GOOG. To me, it's a much riskier future investment than either MSFT or GOOG.
The last decade may have been better, but it's hard to go back in time and invest over the last decade. I can only invest in the future. And the future doesn't look really stable for AAPL, given the current numbers...
My guess is about 90%.
Personal computers aren't used at all for portable gaming or e-readers. About the ONLY crossover would be with desktops for the "e-mail and internet" crowd.
Portable gaming is the domain of PSP, Nintendo DS, and cell phones. The e-reader market? Kindle, Nook, Sony. Those are where the tablets may make in-roads. Versus traditional computer platforms with dedicated keyboards, it's going to a long, tough slog...
Especially when your tablet doesn't even have arrow keys on its soft keyboard (I'm looking at you, iPad!).
Okay, but I think a lot of people only use their laptop or desk computer for internet and e-mail.
In my household that is all my wife and son use it for. I use many applications - but mostly for my business.
My guess is that tablets will someday eliminate the need for desktop computers for personal use. Businesses will still require the power and accessibility of a regular computer.
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