I don’t think tablets are ever going to get down to $10, which is what it would have to be to fulfill your toothpaste prophecy.
I doubt the future of computing will ever be primarily tablets. Tablets have a few major issues that will prevent them from becoming function machines, game and amusement machines sure but not function. The screen size is small, they generally have either no keyboard or a very small button style keyboard. Try typing a 30 page document on one of those things. Then of course there’s storage space, the have remarkably little of it. They’re just plain not useful for business, home sure but as business it’s a non-starter.
Why would people need multiple of these things synced together. Their big reason to exist is portability, nobody really needs more than one. Everybody in household might have one but if the things are useful enough to take over the industry nobody would need more than one.
I think you got a lot of pipe dream in there but the basic reality is different. You’re basically predicting they’ll become to the next generation what disposable watches were in the 1980s. But between the cost (it’s never going to be that cheap) and the functionality (they really aren’t that useful) it’ll never happen. These things might replace portable gaming, they might even replace e-readers, they might replace desktops for the “e-mail and internet” crowd, but that’s pretty much the outside limit.
What percentage of the personal computing business do you think is included in that statement.
My guess is about 90%.
If you can remember the very first iPod product released in 2001 (not even 10 years ago) and compare it to the iPod Touch of today, you will see what I am trying to say. The tablet (iPad) you are looking at today will bear no resemblance and will appear to be primitive when compared to the tablets you will be working with less than 10 years from now.