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And now, the main event -- inflation vs. deflation
MarketWatch ^ | Aug. 4, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT | Todd Harrison

Posted on 08/03/2010 10:43:25 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

Commentary: Two roads suggest vastly different courses of action

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard shot a warning over the bovine bow last week, saying the U.S. is at risk of falling into a Japan-like deflationary trap.

His comments were part of the context of a proposed solution. Instead of insisting interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future, he argued the Federal Reserve should focus on the next iteration of quantitative easing -- namely buying Treasuries and boosting inflation expectations.

The decisions made by the powers that be will impact profoundly whether we slip into a deflationary morass or inflate our way to another day. While a thin line defines these two outcomes, the ramifications are binary for investors. In an inflationary environment, cash is trash; in a deflationary environment, it is king.

How then do we reconcile these two seemingly disparate outcomes? In a word, carefully.

For the last eight years, the ace up the Federal Reserve's sleeve has been the U.S. dollar. They let the greenback devalue with hopes that a legitimate economic recovery would supplant the credit expansion that dominated this decade. As it stands, we're still waiting.

The world's reserve currency has declined 33% since 2002 while everything measured in dollars reacted in kind. While that slipped by stateside players largely unnoticed, it's been a steady source of stress for foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets.

(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Extended News; Government
KEYWORDS: deflation; democrats; economy; impeachobama; inflation; obama; obamaeconomy

1 posted on 08/03/2010 10:43:28 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Inflation then deflation. Pop goes the bubble.


2 posted on 08/03/2010 10:47:21 PM PDT by rbosque (11 year Freeper! Combat Economist.)
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To: rbosque

Nasty things...those liquidity traps.


3 posted on 08/03/2010 10:48:18 PM PDT by rbosque (11 year Freeper! Combat Economist.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
It's called The Obama Depression.

They are INTENTIONALLY destroying, not just the economy, but every freedom this country has.

Never forget ...


Here's the mind of Fascist Obama, from another poster LomanBill.



So you see, FASCIST Obama is currently on stage III of their plan "bring the country to the verge of crisis".

Don't you see it?

Wasn't it Thomas Jefferson who wrote

And then again when he wrote


4 posted on 08/04/2010 2:08:43 AM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die.)
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To: rbosque
Actually I think we will have a big scoop of both. The situation will mirror the stagflation of the Carter years only much much worse.

Everyone I know is hunkering down and conserving cash and increasing savings. Our national rate which was negative a few years ago is now up to 6% which is big for us.

At the same time, basic costs are on the rise.

We are in for a rough ride.

5 posted on 08/04/2010 3:18:06 AM PDT by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

What the socialist intelligentia does comprehend is that you can have both deflation AND inflation.

A contracting economy will always have deflationary price pressure. Printing warehouses full of money will always have inflationary pressure. Which wins out? Both.

Let’s say that today I make $1 an hour and can purchase 1 loaf of bread. Five years from now I make $500 an hour, but a loaf of bread costs $400. Purchasing power has deflated, while cash value has inflated. In this situation you get massive shortages as people refuse to let go of commodities.

It is far more complicated than my above example, as wages measued by purchasing power will also deflate, but that is it in a nutshell.

And the trick the government appears to be running right now is to balance the two so our buying power is depressed without us actually seeing a significant change in prices.


6 posted on 08/04/2010 3:31:17 AM PDT by SampleMan (If all of the people currently oppressed shared a common geography, bullets would already be flying.)
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To: SampleMan

Bump for later.


7 posted on 08/04/2010 4:02:38 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark.")
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To: SampleMan
"Let’s say that today I make $1 an hour and can purchase 1 loaf of bread. Five years from now I make $500 an hour, but a loaf of bread costs $400."

Let's hope we never go there! Sounds like Weimar Germany-style inflation, which of course wiped out most people's savings and made them very bitter and angry about the system, leaving them open to extremist ideas the next time the economy turned sour.

8 posted on 08/04/2010 5:22:01 AM PDT by Dick Holmes
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To: SampleMan
Let’s say that today I make $1 an hour and can purchase 1 loaf of bread. Five years from now I make $500 an hour, but a loaf of bread costs $400.

I think the numbers in your example are reversed--because with those numbers, you'd have money left over after buying the bread, or to put it another way, you'd be able to buy 1.25 loaves of bread for an hour's work. But, I know what you mean and I agree with you.

9 posted on 08/04/2010 5:38:44 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
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To: SampleMan
And the trick the government appears to be running right now is to balance the two so our buying power is depressed without us actually seeing a significant change in prices

They have a lot of pull as the reserve currency so they can export our inflation. Also nothing is static, so our burst of price inflation in 2008 was partly undone with price deflation in 2009 with the net result that we have lower purchasing power from our wages. You are right though, our deflation and inflation will exist simultaneously with falling wages, falling service prices, falling prices on mostly useless crap, but rising prices for gold, fine art or anything else with limited supply.

10 posted on 08/04/2010 5:53:01 AM PDT by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: Yosemitest; Sub-Driver; BOBTHENAILER; SunkenCiv; Marine_Uncle; onyx; NormsRevenge; Grampa Dave; ...
Thanks.

So I think the Deepwater Horizon well oil spill didn't do the job for Obama.

11 posted on 08/04/2010 8:22:19 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
BP Says 'Static Kill' on Gulf Well Is Successful

But the real damage may have been done by the Moratorium on Drilling in the Gulf.

12 posted on 08/04/2010 8:27:01 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Jimmy Valentine

Yes we are and most people are concerned with life’s trivial matters. Our debt has grown to unsustainable levels and our corrupt politicians show no sign of stopping their idiotic spending.


13 posted on 08/04/2010 11:40:43 AM PDT by rbosque (11 year Freeper! Combat Economist.)
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To: rbosque
>>Our debt has grown to unsustainable levels and our corrupt politicians show no sign of stopping their idiotic spending.<<

Let's all remember, this growth in spending occurred under both republican AND democrat administrations and legislatures.

We the people need to wake up and begin the process of deconstructing the bureaucracies that these crooked politicians placed in the paths of citizens wanting transparency in government.

The tree of liberty...is gettin thirsty.

14 posted on 08/04/2010 11:57:30 AM PDT by servantboy777
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
When Beck first started talking about this, most people didn't really want to believe him.

But it goes deeper than that.

Didn't our Heavenly Father, through our Savior tell us...

How well we deserve this curse (~so shall the LORD bring upon you all evil things~) God has given us,
through the ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT IN CHIEF, the FASCIST Obama.

Someone once ask, "When is violence for political purposes justified?"...

I recommend the following for your valuable time, to ponder... (all 37 pages)

Violence, Nonviolence, and the American Revolution

All things written in the Bible must come to pass,
and we WILL get to the day worse than has ever been.

And this too shall pass...

Can you remember reading about "a thorn in their side"?

The command I await is...

Obama, and his Marxist minions, SHALL be gathered and bound.
15 posted on 08/04/2010 12:20:08 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die.)
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To: servantboy777

You are correct, Bush spent but Obama has put it in fifth gear. As a Constitutionalist, I hope that there will come a day when both parties reflect the spirit of Grover Cleveland and not spend for frivolous political reasons.


16 posted on 08/04/2010 1:26:52 PM PDT by rbosque (11 year Freeper! Combat Economist.)
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To: rbosque

Yes we are and most people are concerned with life’s trivial matters. Our debt has grown to unsustainable levels and our corrupt politicians show no sign of stopping their idiotic spending.


My experience in working with bankrupt business is that they continue to spend money until they can’t. The “can’t” was usually when the bank cut off their credit and called the loan.


17 posted on 08/04/2010 1:41:22 PM PDT by PeterPrinciple ( Seeking the truth here folks.)
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To: rbosque
I have little hope that this ship can ever be turned around seeing the shear corruption that has overcome Washington.

I'm not sure we can overcome this debt. Manufacturing being outsourced and the shrinking middle class, where will the feds come up with the revenue sufficient to satisfy the appetite of this government.

When Barry speaks of pain in regards to the debt, he should be talking of the pain of government as behemoth bureaucracies are eliminated and or slashed dramatically.

Americans have had enough pain.

18 posted on 08/04/2010 2:10:40 PM PDT by servantboy777
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To: PeterPrinciple

Do you foresee banks calling in private loans and mortgages if the stuff hits the fan?


19 posted on 08/04/2010 2:20:01 PM PDT by rbosque (11 year Freeper! Combatages Economist.)
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To: servantboy777

True. I share your cynicism, those politicians won’t stop until hell freezes over.


20 posted on 08/04/2010 2:22:00 PM PDT by rbosque (11 year Freeper! Combatages Economist.)
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