Posted on 05/23/2010 10:07:26 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
If the trouble starts -- and it remains an "if" -- the trigger may well be obscure to the concerns of most Americans: a missed budget projection by the Spanish government, the failure of Greece to hit a deficit-reduction target, a drop in Ireland's economic output.
But the knife-edge psychology currently governing global markets has put the future of the U.S. economic recovery in the hands of politicians in an assortment of European capitals. If one or more fail to make the expected progress on cutting budgets, restructuring economies or boosting growth, it could drain confidence in a broad and unsettling way. Credit markets worldwide could lock up and throw the global economy back into recession.
For the average American, that seemingly distant sequence of events could translate into another hit on the 401(k) plan, a lost factory shift if exports to Europe decline and another shock to the banking system that might make it harder to borrow.
"If what happened in Greece were to happen in a large country, it could fundamentally mark our times," Angelos Pangratis, head of the European Union delegation to the United States, said Friday after a panel discussion on the crisis in Greece sponsored by the Greater Washington Board of Trade.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Read this good analysis of socialism that was just posted on the Free Republic:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2519797/posts
It is interesting that someone wrote this piece which describes exactly what I believe.
Alot of China’s GDP is based on their contruction projects, including their hyper-inflated housing and condo markets.
Your now starting to see entire blocks and suburbs of Chinese cities resembling “Potemkin villages” where you have buildings, skyscrapers, and entire shopping malls constructed, but nobody is living in them or shopping there.
When pop goes the bubble, which I’m predicting within 2 years, its going to be nasty, but the Chinese government will do everything it can to block the story of the financial damage from the outside world so its going to be difficult to guage what’s really going on there.
There will also be some big time benefits to China finally slowing down. Natural resource prices, especially oil, has been soaring high due to all the Chinese demand. Steel, Iron ore, copper, etc... Will all become more affordable.
Ping
That excuse won’t save him from being a one-term wonder and kicked out in 2012. People vote their pocketbook. They don’t listen to excuses. If unemployment is still this high, and th economy is still this weak in 2012, and I predict they will be, Obama is an O-goner.
That sounds about right. Wales is practically another department of Government.
And Scotland is a crushing welfare millstone - AND the Scots get twice as many MPs (members of parliament) per capita.
England does all the work and pays all the bills.
The fuse is lit...It’s going to go boom...
Instead of trying to stop it, the leadership around the world keeps heaping more explosives on the pile...
I think the official blame will go on speculators. Those damn speculators brought down the Euro.
It didn't help that Japan overinflated in the 80's. The other way to lose a lot of OPM is to dilute capital with excessive credit. Japan tried it and failed, so we will try it again. That virtual OPM then migrates to dumps like Greece for the larger "guaranteed" returns. Then the carry trade unwinds and tanks Europe (in the current case). Eventually a small business or other long term investor here finds out his money isn't worth as much because Japan, US Fed and now the ECB have inflated all the currencies.
Basically, governments are just too big now. They have been grown using 'good times' revenue scenarios to project future income coupled with paper growth of fictitious wealth from the global derivatives Ponzi Scheme.
With so much global manufacturing having shifted to Asia / India, just how the F did the US and European politicians think money that once stayed within their borders from domestic industry was to remain in the country, not to mention how they were to long term finance goobetrmint and private pensions??
Excellent post!! You nailed it on the head! It’s about how goobermints feed themselves so they can grow their goobermint!
Interesting the goobermint smucks are now revising the US GDP upwards as the US continues to lose jobs every month. Most sheeple forget the GDP reported by the goobermint includes goobermint spending. With Congress and Zeewoe spending like a bunch of drunken sailors, geeesssh, the GDP is great, ain’t it!!
They are safe because they are backed up by law or something like that...basically the gov cannot back out of them like.
The Euro was $1.23 this AM, it was $1.51 in January, an enormous drop in 5 months, the British pound $1.4355, the Dollar/Swissy up to $1.16.
Money to be made shorting the Euro and Pound.
G. Gordon Liddy pushes Rosalind Capital, whereas Mark Levin pushes Goldline.
I trust them both and can’t make up my mind.
That’s scary.
IMF guy says the US isn't even close to being like Greece....Peter says it is....
ITEM Non-stop socialism
ITEM Nationalized healthcare that broke the bank
ITEM The corrosive political power of dominant public sector unions....rioting in the streets, bringing the gov't down.
ITEM Ohaha reflexively bails out anything that has a union.
ITEM Greece paid Goldman Sachs $300 million in fees for arranging the toxic 2001 transactions, according to several bankers.
ITEM "Professor Ohaha" knows nothing about int'l finance. But Wall Street Rahm Emanuel sits in OUR WH.....AND Rahm is a G/S toadie.
=====================================
Goldman Sachs Will Be Sitting Pretty With Emanuel in the Obama White House
Timothy P. Carney, Examiner Columnist, November 21, 2008
EXCERPT Goldman Sachs always has clout in Washington, as evidenced by the firms alumni serving as Treasury secretaries under both Presidents Bush and Clinton. Today, in these tumultuous times of bailouts and meltdowns when the investment banking leviathan needs Washington more than ever before, Goldman can leverage its most valuable asset yetincoming White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel. Traditionally a Democratic booster, and one of Barack Obamas top sources of funds in this past election, Goldman has always had some particularly strong allies within government.
Emanuel is one such ally.
An interesting early chapter in the Goldman-Rahm Emanuel relationship occured during Bill Clintons 1992 presidential campaign. Clinton hired Emanuel as his chief fundraiser. At the same time, however, Emanuel was on the payroll of Goldman Sachs, at $3,000 per month to introduce us to people, in the words of one Goldman partner at the time.
In his four terms in Congress, Emanuel raised $74,750 from Goldman, making the firm his number four source of funds.
How has Emanuel helped Goldman? The most obvious answer, as mentioned in this column two weeks ago, is in Emanuels lead role in shepherding the $700 billion bailoutfirst proposed by former a Goldman CEO, Bush Treasury Secretary Henry Paulsonthrough the skeptical House.
In the Clinton days, Goldman benefited from NAFTA and the bailout of the Mexican currency, with Emanuel pushing NAFTA through Congress, and Rubin hammering out the peso bailout.
Did Goldman improperly funnel money to the Clinton campaign by subsidizing Emanuels salary in 1992? Did Goldmans help to Clinton spur the Democratic president to push NAFTA and the Mexican bailout? The answers to these questions are opaque, and with Emanuel burrowed deep within the Obama White House, the continued relationship between Goldman Sachs and Obamas right hand man wont be easy to follow.
CLUES Watch which regulations of Wall Street Obama fights for. Watch where the bailout money goes.
SOURCE http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/TimothyCarney/
Selected countries, in January 2010 data compiled from Forbes and Bloomberg and EC:
Debtor Nations
Iceland
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2009*): 310%
GDP Growth, 2010 (Estimate): 2.0%
Budget Deficit Ratio, 2010 (Estimate): 9.9%
Iceland made headlines in 2009 as the world`s first `subprime nation.` The implosion of the country`s financial-services industry left it with debt three times domestic GDP, and forced Iceland to go cap-in-hand to the International Monetary Fund for a $2.1 billion bailout. Yet when President Olafur Grimsson vetoed legislation on Jan. 6 that would have repaid $6 billion to British and Dutch authorities for covering their local depositors in a failed Icelandic bank, the country`s international financial lifeline was put in jeopardy.
Greece
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2010): 125%
GDP Growth, 2010 (Estimate): 0.1%
Budget Deficit Ratio, 2010 (Estimate): 9.0%
With the largest debt burden relative to the size of its domestic economy in Europe, Greece is viewed as the sick man of the region. Not helping matters, the European Commission criticized the country on Jan. 12 for publishing false economic numbers. That comes after local policymakers were forced to revise the 2008 budget deficit figure to 12.7% three times an earlier forecast. To get the country`s books in order, politicians want to raise an extra $6.5 billion this year through pay freezes for government workers and new taxes.
U.S.A.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2010): 93.6%
GDP Growth, 2010 (Estimate): 1.5%
Budget Deficit Ratio, 2010 (Estimate): 9.9%
The $787 billion economic stimulus package and the further billions of dollars pumped into the financial-services sector have pushed America`s debt burden to almost 100% of annual GDP. That`s unsustainable in the long term, but expected 1.5% growth in the domestic economy this year has reassured investors that debt levels remain manageable. While no widespread tax increases are on tap this year, the Obama Administration is planning some targeted taxes to fill the gap. But health-care reform [currently working its way through Congress] could add billions of dollars to the federal budget.
Britain
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2010): 81.7%
GDP Growth, 2010 (Estimate): 0.9%
Budget Deficit Ratio, 2010 (Estimate): 13.2%
With one of the worst budget deficits in the European Union, Britain must tighten its belt or face dire fiscal problems. No definite plans are expected before a national election later this spring, although all major political parties agree government spending must be cut and taxes will increase. The official retirement age also may rise to ease the country`s financial woes, which are particularly dire due to the British economy`s reliance on the financial-services industry.
Spain
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2010): 66.3%
GDP Growth, 2010 (Estimate): 0.7%
Budget Deficit Ratio, 2010: 12.3%
After Spain`s credit-fueled construction and real estate sectors imploded, the country`s once prosperous economy turned into one of the worst performers in Europe. A large budget surplus before the crisis began will likely turn into a 12% deficit this year, and Spain`s uncompetitive workforce has exacerbated the country`s current account deficit. To turn things around, analysts reckon the Iberian country must overcome its many structural problems, such as a low caliber of tertiary education and relatively high labor costs.
Ireland
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2010): 83%
GDP Growth, 2010 (Estimate): 0.6%
Budget Deficit Ratio, 2010: 13.5%
Once known as the Celtic Tiger, Ireland had the wind knocked out of its sails by the credit crunch. The local housing market contracted 19% last year and the economy shank 7.5%. In response, the Irish government has slashed $5.8 billion from its 2010 budget, including pay cuts for government workers and reductions in subsidies for parents of young children. Affected workers haven`t taken the belt-tightening lying down: Thousands took to the Dublin streets in late 2009 to protest.
Mexico
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2010): 49.3%
GDP Growth, 2010 (Estimate): 3.2%
Budget Deficit Ratio, 2010: 2.5%
Last year wasn`t kind to Mexico. Slumping oil revenue and lowered export demand from the U.S. hit the Latin American country hard. Rubbing salt into its wounds, international ratings agencies downgraded Mexico`s debt late last year. Yet rising energy prices and a gradual rebound in exports have lifted the country`s spirits, and its budget deficit is relatively mild. On Jan. 11, Mexico even raised $1 billion in a 10-year bond offering that was oversubscribed by 1.6 times.
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